Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 5

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets need to win three games in a row to advance to the second round of the playoffs, as they lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday night to fall down 3-1 in their first-round series.

The Nuggets won Game 1, but the Wolves have stormed back with some elite defensive performances, holding the No. 1 offense in the NBA to under 100 points in back-to-back games.

Despite that, the Nuggets are double-digit favorites at home in Game 5, and they are still +125 to win the series. The main reason for the series-long price is that Anthony Edwards suffered a hypextended knee in Game 4 and is out for the rest of the series.

He’s set to miss multiple weeks, and the Wolves also lost starting guard Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles tear) for the season in Game 4. Ayo Dosunmu (43 points in Game 4) stepped up in a big way to fill the offensive void, but oddsmakers clearly aren’t expecting a repeat showing in Game 5.

Can Jokic and the Nuggets keep their season alive after struggling in the second half of Game 4, where they scored just 42 points?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet on and my prediction for Monday’s Game 5.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Timberwolves +11.5 (-115)
Nuggets -11.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Timberwolves: +390
Nuggets: -520

Total

222.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets How to Watch

Date: Monday, April 27
Time: 10:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Ball Arena
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Series: Minnesota leads 3-1

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Timberwolves Injury Report

Anthony Edwards – out
Donte DiVincenzo – out

Nuggets Injury Report

Aaron Gordon – questionable
Peyton Watson – out

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets

Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

Naz Reid OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-121)

In today’s NBA best props column for SI Betting, I shared why Reid may be undervalued on the glass in Game 5:

I'm eyeing Timberwolves forward Naz Reid in the prop market, as he's been a sneaky play in his rebounds prop over the last few games.

After foul trouble limited Reid to just 17 minutes and three boards in Game 1, the former Sixth Man of the Year has responded with nine, six and nine boards in his last three games. He's played over 27 minutes in two of those games (he got in foul trouble again in Game 3), and I think he could see an expanded role on Monday with the Wolves in need of more offense.

Reid averaged 6.2 rebounds per game in the regular season, and he's currently averaging just under nine rebound chances per game in this series. I think he's worth a look in this market, especially since the Wolves have defended at such a high level in this series.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Best column – Peter’s Points – why the UNDER is the play in this Game 5 battle:

Anthony Edwards’ knee injury has opened the door for the Nuggets to make a comeback from a 3-1 deficit in the first round, but – for me – they’re a stay away as a 10.5-point favorites in Game 5.

Instead, I’m looking to the UNDER with the total set at 221.5.

These teams have combined for 221, 233, 209 and 208 points in four games in this series, and the Wolves are now down their top offensive player in Edwards and their top 3-point shooter in DiVincenzo. So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Minnesota’s offense take a bit of a step back on Monday night – especially on the road.

Meanwhile, Denver went from the No. 1 offense in the NBA in the regular season to the No. 12 offense so far in the playoffs. Rudy Gobert has done a great job on Nikola Jokic, and injuries to Aaron Gordon (questionable for Game 5) and Peyton Watson have limited Denver’s ceiling on both ends of the floor.

The Nuggets have scored less than 100 points in back-to-back games, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they still struggle since the Wolves held them to just 42 second-half points after Edwards went down in Game 4.

Pick: UNDER 222.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $100 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google