Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Series Prediction, Odds, Best Bets for NBA Playoffs

The SI Betting and NBA experts give their predictions for the Minnesota Timberwolves-Denver Nuggets series.

The Denver Nuggets and center Nikola Jokic are favored in the first round. | Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets survived a ton of injuries during the 2025-26 regular season to finish with the third-best record in the Western Conference. A 12-game winning streak to end the regular season was key to Denver’s finish, and the Nuggets are now favored to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the playoffs.

Minnesota swept Denver in the regular season in the 2024-25 campaign, but the Nuggets got their revenge this season, winning three of the four meetings between these squads. There is no love lost between these division rivals, and the Wolves have made back-to-back Western Conference Finals with Anthony Edwards leading the way.

Edwards and Jaden McDaniels were both banged up for Minnesota towards the end of the regular season, which could play a role in this matchup. 

Health is a key factor for both teams, as Denver is arguably the best team in the league when Aaron Gordon plays this season, winning 75 percent of the games that he suited up in. 

After posing the No. 1 offensive rating in the league during the regular season, the Nuggets have a tough test against a top-eight defense in the Wolves.

The SI Betting and NBA experts are all making picks for this series, giving bettors a ton of different perspectives before you make your series wagers.

First, let’s look at the latest odds, from the series odds to the total games, for the Timberwolves vs. Nuggets matchup in the Western Conference. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Series Odds

• Timberwolves: +280 
• Nuggets: -350

Based on these odds, the Nuggets have an implied probability of 77.78 percent to win this series. 

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Series Spread

• Nuggets -1.5 (-155)
• Timberwolves +1.5 (+130)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Series Correct Score

• Nuggets in 5: +265
• Nuggets in 7: +360
• Nuggets in 4: +425
• Nuggets in 6: +450
• Timberwolves in 6: +800
• Timberwolves in 7: +950
• Timberwolves in 5: +2000
• Timberwolves in 4: +3000

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Series Total Games

• 5.5 (Over -135/Under +115)

Could this series go the distance? Oddsmakers have Denver in seven games as the second-most likely outcome, and the series total favors this matchup going six or more games.  

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Series Predictions

Peter Dewey

The most important Denver Nuggets stat this season doesn’t involve Nikola Jokic or Jamal Murray. It’s the fact that Denver was 27-9 when Aaron Gordon was in the lineup and just 27-19 when he was out.

Gordon looks healthy heading into the playoffs, and that’s a great sign for a Denver team that went 3-1 against Minnesota in the regular season. The Nuggets have the No. 1 offensive rating in the league, and with Jokic, Murray and Gordon all on their floor, they have an offensive rating of 131.1 and a net rating of +19.9. In all honesty, I think a healthy Denver team may be able to produce the best five-man lineup in the NBA. 

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves limped to the finish after the All-Star break with Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels missing time. Minnesota finished 23-25 against teams that were .500 or better, and it dropped to 13th in offensive rating by the end of the season. 

Denver’s defense is a concern (21st in defensive rating), but if Gordon is able to remain in the lineup, I’m not betting against Nikola Jokic in a first-round series. 

Pick: Nuggets in 6 (-350, +450)

Chris Mannix

Nikola Jokic is healthy. Jamal Murray is healthy. Aaron Gordon, finally, is healthy. The Nuggets closed the season with a pair of wins over San Antonio, one an overtime classic, the other a game they had no reason to win and did it anyway. There’s a certain vibe around this Denver team right now. The ‘Wolves, meanwhile, staggered into the playoffs and Anthony Edwards has played three games since mid-March. This series could be a short one. 

Pick: Nuggets in 5 (-350, +265)

Liam McKeone

There hasn’t been nearly enough concern about the Timberwolves entering the playoffs. Edwards missed a good chunk over the final month of the year with a nagging knee issue—an extremely worrying collection of words. Minnesota has suffered more inexplicable losses than any other serious contender. Julius Randle shooting 28% from 3 after the All-Star break as part of a brutal second-half slump is the opposite of what the Wolves want to see in light of not only Edwards but McDaniels being banged up. There are both tangible and intangible concerns about this team’s title ability to lock in and compete with quality opponents—the Nuggets included. 

Denver has its own issues. The defense is the most obvious one and, based on this season, there’s a depressingly high chance of a hamstring issue striking a key contributor at an inopportune moment. The Timberwolves have proven a particularly difficult postseason matchup in the past. But the last time they met in the playoffs Minnesota was able to throw several different combinations of big men against Jokić and stifled him as well as anybody ever has. This time that’s not the case. The Wolves have to hope Rudy Gobert is up for the task because Naz Reid isn’t. 

Maybe Ant Man is fully healthy, as is McDaniels, and Minnesota has another level to reach. Even if all that proves true they still have to get through Jokić and Jamal Murray. I don’t see much hope for the Wolves. 

Pick: Nuggets in 4 (-350, +425)

Tyler Lauletta

Until someone gives me a good reason to pick against Nikola Jokić, I’m not going to do it. In a perfect world, Anthony Edwards would give me that good reason and this series would go seven games, but the Nuggets are looking a whole lot like the squad that won a title a few years ago, and the Wolves seem to still have some growing pains to go through before making the leap.

In four games against Minnesota this season, Jokić averaged a triple-double of 35.8 points, 15.0 rebounds and 11.3 assists per game. I’m not going to overthink this one.

Pick: Nuggets in 5 (-350, +265)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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