Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 1

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs begin their playoff run on Sunday night, as they’ll host the Portland Trail Blazers in the fourth and final Game 1 matchup of the day.

Portland made a huge run over the final stretch of the regular season, winning 10 of its last 15 games while ranking eighth in the NBA in net rating. That was enough for the Blazers to earn the No. 8 seed ahead of the play-in tournament, and they upset the Phoenix Suns in the No. 8 vs. No. 7 game to earn the No. 7 seed in the postseason.

The reward for Deni Avdija and company?

A matchup with a 62-win San Antonio team that was 24-4 after the All-Star break, posting the best net rating in the league during that stretch.

The Spurs don’t have a ton of playoff experience on their roster – outside of Harrison Barnes and De’Aaron Fox – but they have a plethora of young stars that make them a team to be reckoned with for years to come.

Oddsmakers have set the Spurs as 10.5-point favorites at home in this Game 1 matchup, and it’s worth noting that they won two of three meetings with the Blazers in the regular season even though Wemby missed all of those matchups.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this Western Conference showdown on Sunday night.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Blazers +10.5 (-105)
Spurs -10.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Blazers: +400
Spurs: -535

Total

221.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs How to Watch

Date: Sunday, April 19
Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Frost Bank Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Series: Tied 0-0

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Injury Reports

Blazers Injury Report

Damian Lillard – out

Spurs Injury Report

Jordan McLaughlin – out

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Best NBA Prop Bets

Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

Victor Wembanyama OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-119)

Wembanyama closed out the regular season with 13 or more rebounds in seven of his last eight games, only failing to clear this line in the matchup where he injured his rib.

The MVP candidate averaged 11.5 rebounds per game in the regular season, and I think that number goes up in the playoffs if he plays more minutes. The Spurs played the star center just 29.2 minutes per game in the regular season, but I'd expect that number to rise in the playoffs.

Portland finished the regular season seventh in rebound percentage, but it was outside the top 10 in opponent rebounds per game. That sets up well for Wemby, who averaged 17.4 rebound chances per game in the regular season.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

I’m not going to worry about the Spurs’ lack of playoff experience, because this team has shown all season long that it can contend for a title.

San Antonio was 20-17-1 against the spread when favored at home in the regular season, and it finished the campaign ranking third in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating and net rating. The Blazers, on the other hand, were 19th in net rating (-0.4) and 21st in offensive rating.

That could be a major issue against the Spurs and the Defensive Player of the Year favorite in Wembanyama, as he could take away a lot of the downhill driving of Avdija that makes this Portland offense go.

One concerning trend for the Blazers this season is the fact that they were under .500 against the spread as road underdogs, posting an average scoring margin of -9.8 in those games. On top of that, Portland was just 16-33 against teams that were .500 or better during the regular season.

I’m buying the Spurs – who have a rest advantage – to run away with this Game 1 matchup. San Antonio lost just eight games at home in the regular season, and it remains a top-three team in the league on both ends of the floor – the only team in the NBA that can say that based on the final numbers for ORTG, DRTG and net rating in the regular season.

Pick: Spurs -10.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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