Twins vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Sunday, Aug. 9

The Milwaukee Brewers have opened up a multi-game lead for the best record in Major League Baseball this season, and they’re looking to add to it with ace Jacob Misiorowski on the mound on Sunday.

The NL Cy Young favorite, Misirowski has a 1.63 ERA and is coming off seven innings of two-run ball in a loss to the Los Angeles Angels last weekend. Now, he’s hoping he can get some more run support against the Minnesota Twins, who are two games under .500 this season.

Minnesota is just 1.5 games out of the final wild card spot in the American League, so it has a lot to play for over the next two months. The Twins have 25-year-old lefty Connor Prielipp (4.75 ERA) on the mound for the 16th time in the 2026 season on Sunday afternoon.

Can he lead the Twins to an upset win over the best pitcher in MLB?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Sunday’s contest.

Twins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Twins +1.5 (+103)
Brewers -1.5 (-124)

Moneyline

Twins: +238
Brewers: -258

Total

7 (Over -121/Under +100)

Twins vs. Brewers Probable Pitchers

Minnesota: Connor Prielipp (3-5, 4.75 ERA)
Milwaukee: Jacob Misiorowski (11-5, 1.63 ERA)

Twins vs. Brewers How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Aug. 9
Time: 2:10 p.m. EST
Venue: American Family Field
How to Watch (TV): Brewers.TV/Twins.TV
Twins record: 58-60
Brewers record: 73-44

Twins vs. Brewers Best MLB Prop Bets

Brewers Best MLB Prop Bet

Jacob Misiorowski OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets column why I’m backing Misiorowski against Minnesota:

Misiorowski has been the best pitcher in all of baseball this season, posting a 1.63 ERA while striking out an insane 195 batters in 127.0 innings of work.

The right-hander ranks in the 100th percentile in expected ERA, the 99th percentile in expected BAA, the 99th percentile in whiff percentage and the 100th percentile in strikeout percentage.

On top of that, he’s punched out 10 or more batters in four of his last five starts.

Misiorowski takes on the Minnesota Twins on Sunday, who are averaging just 8.03 strikeouts per game, which ranks in the top 10 in the league. Despite that, I think the right-hander is undervalued with his strikeout prop down at 8.5.

The Brewers star has nine or more K’s in 12 of his 21 starts this season. In seven outings where he reached the seventh inning, Misiorowski has eight or more K’s in all of them.

I think he’s a must bet given his dominance this season, especially since the Twins are a pretty average offense, ranking 16th in batting average, 12th in OPS and 11th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).

Twins vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

The Brewers are 18 games over .500 at home this season, and they’ve actually covered the run line in 54 percent of their games when favored at American Family Field.

That’s good for the fourth-best mark in all of baseball this season.

So, with Misiorowski on the mound on Sunday, I don’t mind taking Milwaukee to win and cover this number.

The Brewers have won 13 of his 21 outings, and the right-hander has not allowed more than three earned runs in a single start. As I mentioned in the prop section of this piece, he has better advanced numbers than anyone in the league, ranking in the 100th percentile in expected ERA, the 99th percentile in expected BAA, the 99th percentile in whiff percentage and the 100th percentile in strikeout percentage.

Meanwhile, Prielipp has led the Twins to a 6-9 record in 15 appearances while posting an expected ERA of 4.04 (50th percentile) this season. He did allow just two runs (one earned) across six frames against the Brewers earlier this season, but Minnesota still lost that game.

I have a hard time trusting the Twins in this matchup, especially since their bullpen (4.84 ERA) has been one of the 10 worst in MLB.

I’ll take Milwaukee on the run line to win this series finale.

Pick: Brewers -1.5 (-124 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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