Twins vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Sunday, Aug. 2

Both the Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners are jockeying for positioning in the AL wild card race, and Sunday’s series finale is a rubber match after these teams split the first two games on Friday and Saturday.

Minnesota is .500 in the 2026 season, and it sits in a tie with the Cleveland Guardians for the third and final wild card spot in the AL. The Mariners, who made the ALCS in 2025, have taken a step back this season, sitting at 54-58 (two games back of Minnesota)entering Sunday’s series finale.

Seattle may end up being a seller at the deadline, as it already shipped out the struggling Luis Castillo. Another player rumored to be on the market is right-hander George Kirby (3.98 ERA), who is set to start this afternoon matchup against the Twins.

The Twins have right-hander Taj Bradley (3.65 ERA) on the mound in this game, yet they are underdogs in Seattle. The Mariners are seven games over .500 at home, and they’ll need to keep that up if they want to push their way back into the playoff picture in 2026.

Here’s a breakdown of Sunday’s game, including the latest odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction.

Twins vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Twins +1.5 (-187)
Mariners -1.5 (+153)

Moneyline

Twins: +118
Mariners: -142

Total

7 (Over -120/Under -101)

Twins vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

Minnesota: Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.65 ERA)
Seattle: George Kirby (8-9, 3.98 ERA)

Twins vs. Mariners How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Aug. 2
Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
Venue: T-Mobile Park
How to Watch (TV): Mariners.TV/Twins.TV
Twins record: 56-56
Mariners record: 54-58

Twins vs. Mariners Best MLB Prop Bets

Twins Best MLB Prop Bet

Josh Bell to Hit a Home Run (+499)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column, Daily Dinger, why Bell is a great bet against Kirby:

Minnesota Twins slugger Josh Bell has 13 home runs in the 2026 season, and he could add to that total against the Seattle Mariners on Sunday afternoon.

Seattle is turning to right-hander George Kirby in this matchup, and he’s struggled so far in 2026 when it comes to limiting hits. Kirby has allowed 131 hits in 120.0 innings of work, and he’s been taken yard 15 times in his 20 starts.

The righty allowed four homers in his last outing, and he’s been awful against Bell in his career.

Bell is hitting .400 (4-for-10) with two homers, two runs batted in and a 1.400 OPS against Kirby. This season, 10 of Bell’s 13 home runs have come against right-handed pitching. I expect him to have a big game against Kirby, who could end up getting moved by Monday’s trade deadline.

Twins vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Could we see an upset in this battle between wild card contenders?

Kirby is coming off one of his worst outings of the season, allowing seven runs across four innings in a loss to Texas, and he has led the Mariners to just a 10-10 record in 20 starts in 2026.

The right-hander has given up more hits than innings pitched, ranking in the 55th percentile in expected ERA and 27th percentile in expected batting average against.

Meanwhile, Bradley sits in the 59th percentile in expected ERA and the 71st percentile in expected BAA. The Twins are 14-7 in his 21 starts, and he had a strong July, posting a 2.92 ERA in six outings (the Twins were 5-1 in those games).

Seattle’s offense has been one of the worst in baseball, ranking 27th in OPS and 16th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) in 2026. The Twins, on the other hand, are 11th in both of those categories.

With Bradley on the mound, I think Minnesota is undervalued, and I like it to pull off an upset win on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: Twins Moneyline (+118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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