Twins vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 11

The Yankees are favored at home on Monday.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has a 2.88 ERA at home this season. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees’ struggles have continued into August, and they only have a half-game lead on the Cleveland Guardians for the final wild card spot in the American League.

On Monday, the Yankees will host the Minnesota Twins, who sold off several major pieces at the trade deadline and are on the outside of the playoff picture in the stretch run of the regular season.

Will Warren (4.44 ERA) is on the mound for New York against Zebby Matthews (5.17 ERA), and the best betting sites have the Yankees set as sizable favorites at home.

Can they get back on track and improve their spot in the AL playoff picture? 

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for Monday’s action. 

Twins vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Twins +1.5 (-136)
• Yankees -1.5 (+112)

Moneyline

• Twins: +150
• Yankees: -184

Total

• 9 (Over -102/Under -119)

Twins vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• Minnesota: Zebby Matthews (3-3, 5.17 ERA)
• New York: Will Warren (6-5, 4.44 ERA)

Twins vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Aug. 11
• Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, YES, MNNT
• Twins record: 56-61
• Yankees record: 62-56

Twins vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+165)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Judge is worth a look to break out of a mini slump tonight: 

New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is still the favorite to win the AL MVP award, but he has struggled since coming off the injured list, going 3-for-15 without a home run in five games.

However, I’m buying low on Judge on Monday against the Minnesota Twins and starter Zebby Matthews, who has allowed four homers in eight starts this season while posting a 5.17 ERA. 

So far this season, Judge has hit 26 home runs against right-handed pitching while posting a .341/.434/.662 slash line. While he’s never faced Matthews in his career, I think it’s only a matter of time before the Yankees superstar gets back to his home-run hitting ways.

He’s worth a look on Monday night, especially since the Twins have the seventh-worst bullpen ERA (4.33) in baseball. 

Twins vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

This season, the Yankees are 11 games over .500 at home, and I think they’re a decent bet to get back on track on Monday.

The Twins traded a ton of valuable pieces at the deadline, and they have slipped to fourth in the AL Central and 12 games under .500 on the road.

Matthews has struggled a bit in 2025, allowing four or more runs in half of his outings while posting an ERA over 5.00. On top of that, he’s allowed 43 hits and 10 walks in just 38.1 innings of work.

Now, Warren has been far from lights out for the Yankees, but the team is 13-11 in his starts this season, and he’s given up two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine starts.

At home, Warren has been a much better pitcher this season, posting a 2.88 ERA while his road ERA skyrockets to 6.48.

If this trend continues, New York should be in a great spot to earn a win on Monday night. 

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-184 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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