UConn vs. Duke Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for NCAA Tournament Elite 8

Two historic programs square off in an Elite 8 matchup for the ages, as the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils take on the No. 2 UConn Huskies.

Cameron Boozer and the Blue Devils are the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they’ve struggled a bit so far, surviving a scare against No. 16 Siena in the first round before holding off a frisky St. John’s team in the Sweet 16.

Oddsmakers still have the Blue Devils as the favorite in this game, but UConn turned in an impressive showing on the defensive end in a win over Michigan State in the Sweet 16.

Dan Hurley’s team continues to dominate in the NCAA Tournament, though this is the first time all season that the Huskies are underdogs in a game. UConn has moved up to the No. 10 spot in KenPom, and it’s looking to send Alex Karaban off with a third national title in four seasons.

Duke received a major boost in the Sweet 16 with star guard Caleb Foster (foot) returning to action, but will he be as effective after just one day off in between games?

The Blue Devils certainly need it if they’re going to beat a UConn program that has not lost in the Elite 8 or later under Hurley’s leadership.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for Sunday’s showdown.

UConn vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

UConn +4.5 (-108)
Duke -4.5 (-112)

Moneyline

UConn: +180
Duke: -218

Total

133.5 (Over-115/Under -105)

UConn vs. Duke How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 29
Time: 5:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Capital One Arena
How to Watch (TV): CBS
UConn record: 32-5
Duke record: 35-2

UConn vs. Duke Best Prop Bet

Cameron Boozer OVER 31.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)

This season, Boozer is averaging 22.4 points and 10.3 rebounds per game to lead the Blue Devils, and he’s the favorite to win the Wooden Award.

While Boozer isn’t an elite isolation scorer that will “wow” people with his one-on-one game, he’s been extremely consistent in the tournament, scoring at least 19 points while pulling down 10 or more boards in every game. That’s led to him combining for 35, 30 and 32 points and rebounds in his matchups.

UConn does have an elite big man in Tarris Reed, but after that there isn’t anyone who can really deal with Boozer in the painted area. The Duke star hasn’t needed a ton of shot attempts to reach these numbers in the tournament, and he’s gotten to the line for 28 free throws in three games.

I think he rises to the occasion on Sunday with a trip to the Final Four on the line.

UConn vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s Daily Dunk column – our best college basketball bets of the day – why I like the Huskies to cover in this Elite 8 matchup:

The Blue Devils have failed to cover the spread in two of their three games so far in this tournament, and I once again think they’re on upset alert on Sunday.

The Huskies are a battle-tested team with veterans like Alex Karaban, Solo Ball, Tarris Reed and Silas Demary, and they held off a tough Michigan State team in the Sweet 16.

UConn is the No. 9 defense in the country, according to KenPom, and it has the size with Reed down low to make things tough on Cameron Boozer in this matchup.

The Huskies have not been underdogs in a game all season long, so I can’t pass up this chance to grab them as more than a possession dog on Sunday.

Duke’s advanced numbers are great (fifth in offensive rating, third in defensive rating, per KenPom), but it has not looked great offensively for five of the six halves that it’s played in this tournament. That’s going to be a problem against a UConn team that has championship equity and loves to slow the pace (No. 320 in adjusted tempo).

Duke – like Michigan State – ranks outside the top-100 in turnover rate and opponent turnover rate this season. That should allow the Huskies to mask their biggest issue this season (191st in turnover rate) to a degree in this Elite 8 matchup.

I’ll take the points in a game that should go down to the wire on Sunday night.

Pick: UConn +4.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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