UNC vs. UConn Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

The defending champions UConn Huskies have rolled through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, setting up a date with the No. 4 North Carolina Tar Heels in the Sweet 16.

UConn has yet to lose a game this season, and oddsmakers have set it as a 25.5-point favorite in this matchup. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Huskies’ moneyline is currently off the board since they are favored to win by so much.

Reigning Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four Azzi Fudd dropped 34 points in UConn’s Round of 32 win over Syracuse, and the Huskies have played just one game all season that was decided by less than 10 points (a three-point win over Michigan).

UNC blew out Western Illinois in the first round before hanging on to knock off Maryland in the Round of 32. Can it pull off the upset of the season in the Sweet 16?

Oddsmakers think that it’s extremely unlikely, as Sarah Strong and the Huskies are odds-on favorites to win the national title.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this Sweet 16 matchup.

UNC vs. UConn Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

UNC +25.5 (-110)
UConn -25.5 (-110)

Moneyline

UNC: N/A
UConn: N/A

Total

131.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

UNC vs. UConn How to Watch

Date: Friday, March 27
Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Dickies Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
UNC record: 28-7
UConn record: 36-0

UNC vs. UConn Key Player to Watch

Sarah Strong, Forward, UConn

The best player in the country, Strong is averaging 18.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 3.3 steals and 1.6 blocks per game this season. She leads the Huskies in points, rebounds, steals and blocks per game while shooting a ridiculous 60.0 percent from the field and 41.9 percent from 3.

Strong had 18 points and nine boards in the second round against Syracuse, and she’s scored at least 11 points in every game in the 2025-26 season.

Strong was an integral part in the Huskies’ title run as a freshman last season, and she’s taken an even bigger step forward offensively in her sophomore season.

UNC vs. UConn Prediction and Pick

The Huskies haven’t lost a game all season, and I don’t expect that to change in the Sweet 16.

Bart Torvik ranks the Huskies as the No. 1 team in the country in a plethora of metrics including: effective field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. UConn has the No. 1 power rating in Bart Torvik’s system while the Tar Heels are 16th.

North Carolina has struggled against some of the best teams in the country, losing by 18 to UCLA, 15 to Texas and twice to Louisville, a team that Huskies beat by 13 early on in the 2025-26 season.

UConn’s lopsided wins have a lot to do with the Big East being terrible this season, but only one team was able to keep a game within 10 points against the Huskies.

UNC actually is a great defensive team, ranking 13th in opponent effective field goal percentage, but the Huskies rank No. 1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency.

I think they’ll roll in this matchup after winning their first two NCAA Tournament games by a combined 91 points.

Pick: UConn -25.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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