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U.S. Open Picks, Props and Predictions: Betting Scottie Scheffler, Keegan Bradley and Collin Morikawa
After a near win for the SI Golf betting panel at one national championship last week, we now turn our attention to another, the U.S. Open at Oakmont, where fans are clamoring for a bloodbath. Thick rough and fast greens are stalwarts at this course, but soft conditions and minimal wind this week could mitigate what many feel is the toughest golf test in the world.
The betting panel is comprised of SI Golf betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, FanSided senior editor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction.
Giuffra had Sam Burns to win outright at the Canadian Open last week, but Burns lost in a playoff, though Giuffra did hedge his personal bet to ensure a win there. He also hit his prop bet and is now leading that betting market amongst panelists.
Kirschner is the overall leader, still up over 100 units, while Williams slipped into the red (down one unit) after a bit of a cold streak since hitting Rory McIlroy outright at the Masters. MacMillan (down 48 units), Schwarb (down 63 units) and Giuffra (down 45 units) are all looking for their first outright wins on the panel.
The U.S. Open returns to historic Oakmont, where Jack Nicklaus, Ben Hogan, Dustin Johnson and many other legends of the game have claimed the ultimate American prize in golf. The cream tends to rise to the top at this venue and our panel is certainly backing some heavy hitters to win this week.
Nothing comes easy at Oakmont. A player’s full game will be examined. Any miscue could cost them the tournament, as was the case in 2007 when Tiger Woods made a double bogey on the third hole on Sunday and lost by one to Angel Cabrera.
Below are our betting picks for the U.S. Open with explanations on each below the graphic. Let’s get a win!
Outright
Iain MacMillan: Scottie Scheffler +280 (FanDuel)
Let’s be real. I can sit here and give you a bet at long odds that probably won’t win, or I can tell you that the best golfer on the planet, by a wide margin, is probably going to win at the toughest course these guys will see in 2025. Over the last six months, Scheffler has gained 0.73 true strokes per round more than any other golfer in the world. Not only is he the clear best golfer, but his biggest challengers aren’t at their best. McIlroy’s game is lost, DeChambeau’s irons aren’t dialed, Jon Rahm hasn’t brought his A+ game yet this year, and Xander Schauffele hasn’t returned to 2024 form since returning from his rib injury. +280 odds may be short, but I believe his odds should be even shorter.
John Schwarb: Scottie Scheffler +280 (FanDuel)
I feel like this U.S. Open could play out like the PGA Championship last month, with a motley leaderboard for a couple of days and then Scheffler asserting his dominance on the weekend. Danger lurks everywhere around Oakmont, but Scheffler is the best tee-to-green and that will allow him some leeway on the diabolical putting surfaces. Come Sunday evening, he’ll be three-fourths of the way to the career Grand Slam.
Brian Kirschner: Keegan Bradley +10000 (DraftKings)
It has been said many times, but Keegan is having a great year. Forget about the Ryder Cup Captaincy, Keegan has solidified himself as one of the most consistent guys on the tour. He had an excellent showing at the PGA Championship with a T8 finish and backed it up at the Memorial with a T7. Those are both difficult driving courses with a lot of trouble. The ball striking in both was exceptional. He will contend this week in Pittsburgh.
Cody Williams: Corey Conners +6000 (DraftKings)
Full disclosure, I’m also on Scheffler this week, but I wanted to dig a bit more down the board and found Corey Conners. The Canadian is one of the most consistently accurate drivers on tour while continuing to be an overall ball-striking stalwart. Beyond that, he’s sneakily been terrific with the often frustrating putter on fast greens, which we’ll see a ton of at Oakmont. Conners presents a ton of value with his ball-striking profile and how that should fit the mold to find success this week, especially after cracking the U.S. Open with a T9 finish last year at Pinehurst.
Brian Giuffra: Collin Morikawa +2500 (DraftKings)
I bet Morikawa in the winner without Scottie Scheffler market at +1800 on FanDuel (best odds I found) on Monday as I think he has the best chance to win this tournament outside of Scheffler. He has two Top 5s at past U.S. Opens and two other Top 15s. The rough at Oakmont is ridiculous, so accuracy off the tee is important. Morikawa is second on tour at 72.87%. The long Par 3s will also play a big role. Morikawa is one of the best with mid-to-long irons. Lastly, he’s gained strokes putting his last three events. I know he hasn’t won in a while, but this course is for ball strikers and that’s Morikawa’s specialty.
Longshot
Iain MacMillan: Nick Taylor +17000 (FanDuel)
Nick Taylor has finished T17 or better in four of his last five starts. While he may not be long off the tee, his biggest strength has been his ability to avoid bogeys. He’s 12th on the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance in 2025, recording a bogey on just 13.27% of his holes. That’s going to be a huge asset at Oakmont this week.
John Schwarb: Harris English +10000 (FanDuel)
Some players will lose patience fast this week, but Harris English will relish the challenges of the U.S. Open. He has a third, fourth and T8 finish among his last five starts in our national championship, and was also T12 at the Masters and T2 at the PGA. Statistical proof for the pick: he’s 46 on the PGA Tour in strokes-gained off the tee and 20th in strokes-gained putting. That’s more than enough for a 100-1 ticket.
Brian Kirschner: Maverick McNealy +11000 (DraftKings)
Coming off a T5 finish at The Memorial, there is no doubt that Maverick is having an excellent season. With six Top 10s already this season, he is gunning for a Ryder Cup spot and I think his best performance in a major comes this week at Oakmont. Mav is one of the best putters in the world and has been hitting his driver excellently recently, gaining with distance and accuracy. I trust him to figure out these tough greens and post a great score.
Cody Williams: Harris English +10000 (FanDuel)
I was actually torn between both John and Brian’s longshot picks with Harris English and Keegan Bradley for myself here, but I’ll ride with John and the HE train. English is one of the best in the field in terms of driving accuracy but has also become a sneaky reliable player in both majors and on difficult golf courses. He was T12 at August and T2 at the PGA earlier this year and, as his ball-striking has shown some promise, he’s also been dynamite on the greens, ranking second in the field in SG: Putting on fast greens over the last 36 rounds. He’s got the goods to make some noise with this one.
Brian Giuffra: Keegan Bradley +10000 (FanDuel)
I’ll start by saying I don’t see a longshot winning this week. That said, Bradley fits the profile of someone I see contending. He finished Top 10 at the PGA Championship and was T7 at the Memorial. His accuracy off the tee and on approach are the reasons why. He’s still strong around the greens too. His putting has been suspect this year at times, but he gained strokes putting at Memorial. If he wins here, he’s guaranteed a spot as a player-captain for the Ryder Cup. It’s a great storyline with a chance of reality at least.
First-Round Lead
Iain MacMillan: Scottie Scheffler +1200 (FanDuel)
I know it’s not exactly exciting for me to give a First Round Leader pick that’s the same as my outright pick, but I truly believe this is going to be a Scottie Scheffler masterclass that’s going to start on Thursday and end in a multi-stroke win on Sunday. At a course as difficult as Oakmont, Scheffler’s level of play is going to give him a significant advantage on the field.
John Schwarb: Shane Lowry +5000 (DraftKings)
I think the Irishman is live for this week as arguably the best player on the PGA Tour without a win in 2025. Oddly his major performances have been poo,r but his Masters had a final-round 81 and the PGA was a missed cut, two outcomes I think can be thrown out here. I’m not ready to put winning money on Lowry, but his straight driver could deliver a low round to start things this week.
Brian Kirschner: Tony Finau +7000 (DraftKings)
Although the play has not been exceptional recently, let’s not forget that Tony finished T3 at last year’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst. Big Tone also has two other Top 8 finishes in this event in his career. The iron play has been strong over his past two events at The Memorial and PGA Championship, gaining over 5 at Quail and 3 at Memorial. I think Finau comes back to the major success he had earlier in his career with a FRL at Oakmont.
Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland +5000 (DraftKings)
The ball-striking test at Oakmont undeniably suits the best form of Viktor Hovland. I’m not quite sure we’re there yet, but I do think there’s some value with Hovland overall this week, and a first-round leader play feels smart. He might have a round that takes him out of contention, but he can still blister the field if he’s dialed with the driver and with his still-stellar approach play. Furthermore, his around-the-green woes have not only shown some positive signs of improvement, but this week’s tall rough might help level the field in that capacity, which gives even more credence to a strong start for the Norwegian.
Brian Giuffra: Harris English +7000 (FanDuel)
My biggest concern with English in the outright market is his approach game holding up over four days. It’s been a bit spotty in random rounds this season. In a one-day sample size, however, I think he can get it done. He’s long and accurate off the tee and is typically solid around the greens. His putting is elite. Playing in the morning wave on the easier front nine on Thursday, I like his chances to get off to a hot start.
Prop Bet
Iain MacMillan: Rory McIlroy Miss the Cut (+300)
Rory McIlroy has admitted that he hasn’t been as motivated since completing his career goal of winning the Masters and he’s also talked about his struggles in finding a driver that works for him. The result of that was a +9 score in the second round of the Canadian Open, sending him home early. I don’t think he’s going to be able to bounce back from one of his worst career performances to a strong performance at a major championship at one of the most difficult courses he’ll ever play. It’s time to fade McIlroy until his golf game shows some life.
John Schwarb: Harris English Top 20 +250 (DraftKings)
I will double-dip on my long shot, who is simply priced too high at 100-1. I know cashing that is, um, a long shot, but getting +250 on English to hang around all weekend is a play I will happily make.
Brian Kirschner: Bryson DeChambeau Top 20 After Round 1 +100 (DraftKings)
Last year’s winner has arguably been the best major play since the start of 2024. I think that no matter the venue, the U.S. Open is always going to favor longer hitters and Bryson is the longest in the world. This feels very safe with Bryson at even money.
Cody Williams: Corey Conners Top 10 +400 (BetMGM)
Back on the Conners train, we’re doubling up on that. His game feels well suited for Oakmont and, in particular, the task of surviving the expected conditions of the course this week. Even if he doesn’t win, I still see a strong finish coming from the Canadian this week and I’m further investing in him by taking advantage of 4-1 odds for him to finish inside the Top 10.
Brian Giuffra: Hole in One YES +135 (DraftKings)
I love this market at majors and think this will be one of the most entertaining features at Oakmont. These are some of the longest, toughest par-3s you’ll ever see, so nothing will come easy. I’m also not breaking the bank in this market as I don't think the odds match the likelihood of this happening. But if we do see an ace on the 300-yard par-3 8th hole, I’ll go bonkers!
Winning Score
- Iain MacMillan: -4
- John Schwarb: -5
- Brian Kirschner: -3
- Cody Williams: -6
- Brian Giuffra: -5
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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