USC vs. Penn State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

A key Big Ten matchup is set for Saturday night, as the No. 19 USC Trojans (5-1) hit the road to face the reeling Penn State Nittany Lions.

Things have not been going well for Matt Campbell’s group this season, as they've dropped back-to-back games against Wisconsin and Northwestern, taking them out of the College Football Playoff conversation.

Penn State entered the 2026 season with an extremely easy schedule in conference – USC is the only ranked team currently on Penn State’s schedule – but it has completely fumbled that, scoring just 33 points over the last two weeks.

Senior quarterback Rocco Becht has just one touchdown pass and three picks in his last two games, yet oddsmakers have set the Nittany Lions as favorites at home on Saturday.

USC is coming off a win against Washington in Week 5, and it’s only lost to a ranked Oregon team this season. However, the Trojans are also just 1-5 against the spread in their six games, making them a tough team to bet on.

Lincoln Riley’s group would love to pull off an upset in this matchup, as it still has some tough Big Ten clashes ahead against Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA, making it a bit of a long shot to reach the College Football Playoff this season.

Let’s dive right into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Saturday’s Big Ten showdown.

USC vs. Penn State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

USC +1.5 (-108)
Penn State -1.5 (-112)

Moneyline

USC: +102
Penn State: -122

Total

54.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

USC vs. Penn State How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Oct. 10
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Beaver Stadium
How to Watch (TV): NBC
USC record: 5-1
Penn State record: 3-2

USC vs. Penn State Players to Watch

Jayden Maiava, Quarterback, USC

After throwing for 12 touchdowns and just one interception through the first four weeks of the season, USC quarterback Jayden Maiava has been picked twice in his last three games with the Trojans going 1-1. Their only loss was to a ranked Oregon team, but USC has dropped in the odds to win the National Championship this season.

Maiava has still led an elite offense that is eighth in EPA/Pass, fifth in offensive success rate and fourth in passing success rate in 2026. He is up against a Penn State defense that is third in EPA/Pass despite a 3-2 record.

The Nittany Lions are fifth in adjusted defensive EPA, their offense has just really fallen flat in back-to-back losses.

Since USC is 131st in the country in adjusted EPA/Play on defense, Maiava and this offense need to be clicking on Saturday for the Trojans to get a road win. USC is 2-1 in Big Ten play and has covered the spread just one time in six games.

USC vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

The Trojans have not been able to cover the spread in the 2026 season, as their defense simply can’t get stops. USC has allowed at least 21 points in five of six games, and it is outside the top-100 in defensive success rate and EPA/Play.

Despite that, I’m betting on the Trojans to pull off an upset win on Saturday.

Penn State has fallen apart the last two weeks, and the team’s first three wins over Marshall, Temple and Buffalo are far from impressive.

Becht has really struggled in Big Ten action, and the Penn State offense is just 85th in adjusted EPA/Play.

Now, the USC offense hasn’t stopped anyone all season, but it did allow just 21 points to Washington in Week 5. Since Maiava and the Trojans offense has been so good in 2026, I think they’ll be able to outscore Penn State – even on the road – on Saturday.

Pick: USC Moneyline (+102 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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