Using College Football Playoff Odds to Predict Field Ahead of First Ranking from Selection Committee

The 2026 college football season has just four weeks of regular-season action left, and with November upon us, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee is set to release its first rankings of the 2026 season on Tuesday night.

For the next few weeks, the committee will rank the top-25 teams in the country – a different ranking than the AP Poll – using strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, comparative outcomes and more to decide on the top-12 teams for this year’s College Football Playoff.

The final playoff field will be decided by including the conference champions from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 as well as the highest-ranked Group of 6 team by the committee. That team will come from one of the following conferences: the American, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West, Pac-12 Conference or Sun Belt Conference.

The next seven teams to make the playoff will be the next highest-ranked squads – with one caveat. If Notre Dame finishes in the top-12 in the final rankings, it will be included in the playoffs since it is not a part of a conference and can’t win a conference title.

Now that we’ve gotten the procedural stuff out of the way, it’s time to make some predictions. There are odds to make the College Football Playoff out at the best betting sites, and they should be a good indicator for how the committee will vote on Tuesday.

Odds to Make the College Football Playoff This Season

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Miami (FL): -10000
Georgia: -5000
Indiana: -900
Notre Dame: -550
Alabama: -280
Utah: -250
LSU: -195
UCLA: -190
Ohio State: -165
Ole Miss: -160
Texas: -135
Boise State: +105
Wake Forest: +115
BYU: +170
Kentucky: +175
Texas Tech: +240
New Mexico: +250
Tennessee: +300
Missouri: +350
USC: +380
UTSA: +390
Florida: +420
Iowa: +500
Houston: +650
Northwestern: +700
South Carolina: +750
Arizona: +1000
SMU: +1200
Oregon: +1200
North Texas: +1400
Oklahoma State: +1500
Liberty: +2000
Baylor: +2200
Louisville: +3000
Wisconsin: +4000

After looking at these odds, I’ve decided to rank the top-12 teams ahead of the committee’s first ranking on Tuesday night.

Predicting the Top-12 Teams in College Football Ahead of Committee’s Ranking

Note: The highest-ranked Group of 6 team will likely be Boise State (+105 to make the playoff this season). However, I don’t expect Boise State to be ranked in the top-12 in the initial rankings from the committee on Tuesday night.

1. Miami Hurricanes (-10000)

Miami (FL) Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Miami has yet to lose a game this season and has a very clear path to winning the ACC in 2026. The defense has been a little shaky, especially in Week 9 against UNC, but the Hurricanes can solidify their CFB Playoff spot with a win over Notre Dame in Week 10.

2. Georgia Bulldogs (-5000)

Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Georgia's loss to Auburn knocks it back to the No. 2 spot, but huge head-to-head wins over Alabama and Florida have the Bulldogs at No. 2 in the odds and atop the SEC.

3. Utah Utes (-250)

Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Utah is No. 3 in the AP Poll and has not lost a game this season. There may even be an argument for the Utes jumping into the No. 2 spot. If Utah beats BYU in Week 10, it could end up being a lock to make the CFB Playoff.

4. Indiana Hoosiers (-900)

Indiana Head Coach Curt Cignetti. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The defending champs are 8-1 and only one have one ranked game left (against USC) on their schedule. A loss to Ohio State has hurt, but Indiana is going to be favored to finish 11-1 this season and should play for the Big Ten title once again.

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-550)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I have Notre Dame well ahead of BYU despite a head-to-head loss, and it could completely change its fortune with a win over Miami (where it is favored) in Week 10.

The Fighting Irish are No. 4 in the AP Poll and have the fourth-best odds to make the CFB Playoff this season.

6. UCLA Bruins (-190)

UCLA Bruins linebacker Sammy Omosigho. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

UCLA has played one ranked team (Oregon) this season and has just one (USC) left on the scedule. There's a real chance the Bruins could go 12-0, which should guarantee them a spot in the CFB Playoff.

There's a chance this team slips up over the next four weeks, but UCLA is in a great spot with the rest of the Big Ten looking a little shakier than we initially expected.

7. Texas Longhorns (-135)

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I'm really deviating from the odds here, but Texas has one of the best wins of the season (against Ohio State) and has rebounded nicely after back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Florida.

The Longhorns have head-to-head wins over two other two-loss teams (Ohio State and Ole Miss), so I expect them to be ranked over both on Tuesday.

8. Alabama Crimson Tide (-280)

Even with two losses, Alabama is viewed as a playoff team in the latest odds.

Keelon Russell and Co. have losses to Georgia and Tennessee, and their playoff hopes will likely come down to Week 10 against LSU, where Bama is an underdog. If the Crimson Tide lose, it's hard to see them getting into the top-12 barring a collapse from other SEC teams down the stretch.

9. Kentucky Wildcats (+175)

Kentucky Wildcats head coach Will Stein. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Kentucky is set at plus money to make the playoff, but it has just one loss (to Alabama) and beat LSU already this season. That head-to-head win is huge for the Wildcats when it comes to their playoff viability.

Kentucky closes the season with Tennessee, Florida, Missouri and Louisville (three ranked teams) which could help it build an impressive resume if it finishes 11-1.

10. Ole Miss Rebels (-160)

Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I have Ole Miss ahead of LSU, Texas Tech, Wake Forest and a few other teams in the mix for a top-12 spot.

The Rebels have huge head-to-head wins against LSU and Missouri, and their two losses (Florida and Texas) both came against ranked teams.

Trinidad Chambliss is one of the best quarterbacks in CFB, and the Rebels could solidify themselves as a playoff team by upsetting Georgia in Week 10.

11. Ohio State Buckeyes (-165)

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Ohio State's playoff hopes are hanging by a thread with Julian Sayin out after losing a second game to USC in Week 9.

The Buckeyes have a huge win over Indiana, which should keep them in the top-12, but another loss may spell the end of the road for Ryan Day's group when it comes to the playoff conversation.

12. BYU Cougars (+170)

Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Cougars are plus money to make the playoff, but I think they'll end up in the No. 12 spot on Tuesday night. BYU's win over Notre Dame is one of the best this season, and Bear Bachmeier and Co. are still seventh in the AP Poll.

BYU's playoff hopes may ride on the Week 10 matchup with Utah.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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