Valentin Vacherot vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Third Round

Frances Tiafoe is back in the third round of the U.S. Open for the seventh consecutive year, and he’s favored to keep his quest for a U.S. Open title alive on Friday against No. 22 Valentin Vacherot.

Tiafoe is the No. 11-ranked player in this tournament, and he was able to bounce back from a shaky first-round showing, winning in straight sets against Rei Sakamoto in Round 2.

Now, he takes on the 27-year-old Vacherot, who has never made the fourth round at a Grand Slam in his career. Vacherot has dropped just one set over the first two rounds in the U.S. Open, rebounding nicely from a first-round exit at the Cincinnati Open earlier this month.

A two-time semifinalist in the U.S. Open, Tiafoe would love to make a deep run in this year’s tournament, which has become much more open with Jannik Sinner injured and Novak Djokovic already eliminated.

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to the third round and my prediction for Friday’s match.

Valentin Vacherot vs. Frances Tiafoe Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Valentin Vacherot: +153
Frances Tiafoe: -195

Total

40.5 (Over -115/Under -130)

Valentin Vacherot vs. Frances Tiafoe How to Watch

Date: Friday, Sept. 4
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN Unlimited

Valentin Vacherot vs. Frances Tiafoe History and U.S. Open Performance

This is the first-ever meeting between Vacherot and Tiafoe.

Valentin Vacherot

The No. 22-ranked player in this tournament, Vacherot defeated Aleksandar Kovacevic in straight sets in the first round and Kamil Majchrzak in four sets in the second roun.

This is the first time that the 27-year-old has competed at the U.S. Open, and he’s put together some decent showings in Grand Slams in 2026, reaching the third round of the Australian Open and the second round of the French Open.

This year, Vacherot has won 16 of his 29 matches.

Frances Tiafoe

The first round of the U.S. Open was tough for Tiafoe, as he had to win back-to-back sets to beat fellow American Martin Damm Jr. in five sets. But, he rebounded nicely in the second round, defeating Rei Sakamoto in straight sets.

There’s no doubt that Tiafoe has played the U.S. Open better than any Grand Slam event in his career, which makes him an intriguing option to advance against Vacherot, who has very little proven success in a Grand Slam in his career.

Tiafoe has three quarterfinal appearances and two semifinal appearances at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center over the last four years.

Valentin Vacherot vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction and Pick

This is expected to bet one of the closer matches in the third round, even though Tiafoe has a proven track record of success in the U.S. Open.

Vacherot has put together a solid 2026, but the 27-year-old hasn’t exactly played well as of late, losing in the first round of the Cincinnati Open and the National Bank Open. I think he’s being a little overvalued after winning six of seven sets to open this tournament.

This year, Vacherot is just 10-9 on hard surfaces, though he does boast a 23-12 record on them all-time.

Tiafoe may have gotten off to a slow start in the U.S. Open, but he needed just 34 games to get past Sakamoto in straight sets in Round 2.

I still think this is Tiafoe’s match to win in a setting that he’s been dominant in over the last four years. The American has a lot of equity at the U.S. Open, and Vacherot has yet to make the fourth round of a Grand Slam in his career.

I love this moneyline price for Tiafoe to advance in Round 3.

Pick: Tiafoe Moneyline (-195 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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