Valero Texas Open Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley and Sepp Straka

There have been more distractions ahead of next week’s Masters than a 1970s argyle golf cardigan. Yet, the SI Golf betting panel remains laser-focused on picking winners at the Valero Texas Open.

Sure, Tommy Fleetwood’s new deal with Blackstone diverted our attention momentarily, but that’s it! NOTHING MORE TO SEE HERE PEOPLE!

Jokes aside, the SI Golf betting panel is back with SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and me, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

This season, I have two outright cashes (Cameron Young +5000 at The Players, Justin Rose +6000 at Torrey Pines) and one FRL hit (a five-way chop with Maverick McNealy +5200 at The Players). BK hit Nico Echavarria +6000 at the Cognizant. Model Maniac cashed Aldrich Potgieter Top 5 +5500 at Genesis and chopped S.H. Kim first-round lead +5000 at AmEx. Brad has several cashes on his personal Discord, IMac hit Gary Woodland on another SI article last week and Cody is leading our prop race.

Point is, we’ve had a good start. Now our aim is to keep it rolling this week and then start the major season off with a bang!

The Valero Texas Open is the final tune-up ahead of Augusta. Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg and Russell Henley are the betting favorites. There are plenty of other big names in this week’s field.

Here are our picks with full breakdowns on why we made the picks below the graphic. Let’s stay focused!

Valero Texas Open Betting Picks | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Hideki Matsuyama +2200 (DraftKings)

Hideki Matsuyama is third in the field in total strokes gained over the past three months, and he has two top-15 finishes at this event over the past three years, including a T7 finish here in 2024. His strong chipping makes him a great fit at TPC San Antonio, where scrambling for par is a big key to success.

Brian Kirschner: Sepp Straka +2900 (DraftKings)

Sepp is playing some excellent golf right now and I think his odds should be lower than 28/1 when considering who is below him. Straka has four PGA Tour wins since 2022 and is coming off a top 10 finish at The Players. This should be a great week for another win for the Austrian.

Brad Thomas: Hideki Matsuyama +2200 (DraftKings)

The biggest question surrounding Hideki Matsuyama is whether he can hit enough fairways to contend here. He’s lost strokes off the tee in four of his last six events. That said, it didn’t stop him from nearly winning the WM Phoenix Open while losing 4.8 strokes off the tee. The encouraging sign is his iron play. He gained 2.3 strokes on approach at The Players and added another 2.3 strokes with the putter. If he can put it all together, his price relative to his win equity makes him a strong value in the outright market.

Byron Lindeque: Russell Henley +1700 (DraftKings)

Russell Henley leads the field in strokes gained in 2026, which includes a T13 at the Players and a T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has an additional two top 20s in his three starts prior to that. Historically, scoring averages at the Valero are typically over par, which is ideal for Henley’s chances as he is third on Tour in bogey avoidance (11% bogey rate). A fourth-place finish at Valero in 2024 validates this is a great course fit for the 2025 API champion and soon-to-be 2026 Valero Texas Open boot wearer.

Cody Williams: Sepp Straka +2900 (DraftKings)

Straka has four Top 20 finishes in his last five starts, including two inside the Top 10. He’s third in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and Top 10 overall in SG: Tee-to-Green. You could also argue he’s getting a better feel for TPC San Antonio, improving his finish in each of his three starts here. With his ball-striking right now and how we’ve seen him rise to the occasion, though, I’m dialed in on the Sepptic Tank this week.

Brian Giuffra: Ryo Hisatsune +3900 (DraftKings)

Hisatsune has gotten off to an incredible start this season, highlighted by a T2 at Farmers, T8 at Pebble Beach, T10 at Pheonix and T13 at The Players. His putting has held him back from a win, but he should feel comfortable at TPC San Antonio, where he was T5 last year and gained strokes with the flatstick. Perhaps his success at previous TPC courses is a good omen for a breakthrough win here.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Thorbjorn Olesen +6300 (DraftKings)

Thorbjorn Olesen has had past success at TPC San Antonio and his game is also trending in the right direction. Olesen finished 14th here in 2024 and then fifth last year. He’s also coming in off a T14 finish at the Texas Children's Houston Open, where he gained +1.40 strokes per round with his approach play, ninth best amongst all golfers who made the cut.

Brian Kirschner: Andrew Novak +9800 (DraftKings)

Although it's not been the best start to the season for Novak, I liked what I saw from his ball striking at the Valspar. Novak gained over four strokes off the tee and two with his irons. He simply couldn’t buy a putt. However, Novak has historically putted well here and has two top 10s at this course.

Brad Thomas: Brian Harman +6600

I hate it when people use the argument that so-and-so is a Major winner as their reason for betting on them. Well, Harman is a Major winner and the defending champion. His price isn’t super high, but big enough to have my attention.

Byron Lindeque: Brian Harman +6600 (DraftKings)

From a course fit perspective, Brian Harman is the defending champ. He also finished T25 the year before. He is an Open Champion, further validating his stellar play in the wind, no matter what continent it is blowing on. After a slow start to the year, he has finished 11th at the Players and 19th at Pebble Beach, which are both shorter, positional venues that significantly nullify his lack of distance off the tee in the same way TPC San Antonio does. With the wind expected to blow for most of the week, his handy short game should be an asset once more as he attempts to win the Valero back-to-back.

Cody Williams: Thorbjorn Olesen +6300 (DraftKings)

Olesen has two starts at this event, and they resulted in a T14 and T5 (they were also in the past two years, for the record). Now he enters the week ranking fourth in SG: Approach and seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green. Put simply, his ball-striking form at a course that rewards exactly that is way too enticing for him to be sitting in a field like this at north of 60/1.

Brian Giuffra: Sudarshan Yellamaraju +6600 (DraftKings)

Yellamaraju has come out of nowhere to produce a T5 at The Players and T6 at the Houston Open in his last two starts. It’s likely asking too much to expect him to win here, but I did find these odds to be solid given his last two results. He’s spiked on approach, putting and OTT at The Players and Houston. If he keeps that going this week, he could write the fairytale ending.

First-Round Lead

Iain MacMillan: Denny McCarthy +5600 (DraftKings)

Denny McCarthy has four top-20 finishes at this event across six starts, including a runner-up finish in 2024. His game has also trended in the right direction, finishing T26 at the Valspar Championship and then T12 at last week's Texas Children's Houston Open. He’s in the top half of the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average this season at 70.00.

Brian Kirschner: Sudarshan Yellamaraju +6700 (DraftKings)

Sudar is simply playing too good of golf to ignore this week. After back-to-back top 10 finishes, he is proving that he belongs on the PGA Tour. He has a great mix of distance and accuracy and has gone low in many rounds recently. I am hoping he doesn’t save it for the weekend this time.

Brad Thomas: Thorbjørn Olesen +6600 (DraftKings)

Thorbjørn Olesen is no stranger to finding himself at the top of the leaderboard after any round. He was the first-round leader at the 2025 Amgen Irish Open in September and also held the second- and third-round leads at the 3M Open. With a strong course history (T5 in 2025, T14 in 2024), it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get off to a fast start again.

Byron Lindeque: Sam Ryder +13000 (DraftKings)

Sam Ryder’s Round 1 average strokes gained of +0.3 is the only split of the four that he gains strokes on the field, which checks out given the fact that he opened with a first-round leader 63 here last year. In 2023, he finished T3 here, so his comfort level to go low at the Valero is absolutely there.

Cody Williams: Keith Mitchell +4800 (DraftKings)

Mitchell has been a consistent force at this event with four starts and no finish worse than T26. At the same time, I continue to kick myself when I bet on his win equity. But he’s comfortable in Texas and continuing to strike the ball extremely well. I think he’s primed to come out of the gates hot like a microwave and be the 18-hole leader, even if he doesn’t hold on from there.

Brian Giuffra: Sudarshan Yellamaraju +6700 (DraftKings)

The winner of this tournament has been Top 5 after the first round each of the last five years and was the FRL twice in that span. Stands to reason if I’m betting a guy to win, I should bet him to be a FRL too, right? Sudarshan is averaging a respectable 68.00 in first rounds this year, with a low overall round of 64 at TPC Scottsdale. He has the power and precision to pop in any round. Why not the first?

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Winner to NOT Par 72nd Hole +116 (DraftKings)

The 18th hole at TPC San Antonio can play quite a bit differently depending on pin location and wind, despite being a Par 5. Last year, the 18th hole on Sunday played at +0.288 strokes over par, with nine birdies, 32 pars, 23 bogeys, and one double bogey. That means there were exactly 50% pars and 50% non-pars. If we see similar scoring on that hole this year, a +116 bet on something that has a 50% chance of happening is tremendous value. I love that this bet gives the winner a chance to either birdie or bogey for this wager to cash.

Brian Kirschner: Karl Vilips to make the cut -124 (DraftKings)

Karl led the field in approach last week and already has a top 10 in Texas on Tour. I really think on a course that rewards iron play, he should be able to play the weekend. This price for a golfer who has two top 20s this year is solid value.

Brad Thomas: Russell Henley Top 10 incl. ties +166 (DraftKings)

I actually have Russell Henley third in my power rankings, but his +1700 outright price just isn’t palatable. Does that mean there’s no value in his top-10 price? I don’t think so. At a course that demands fairways and a sharp short game, Henley is one of the first names that come to mind. Coming off a solo fourth here last season, he should arrive with plenty of confidence and a desire to pick up a win right before the Masters starts.

Byron Lindeque: Russell Henley Top 20 incl. ties -128 (DraftKings)

I gave Russell Henley the nickname of “Sex Panther” a couple of years ago, because at the time, he would finish top 20 60% of the time, all the time. Over the last 12 months, however, we have been bottling him up as Sex Panther Platinum, because he is now finishing top 20 78% of the time, with five of his six starts this year cashing this ticket.

Cody Williams: Austin Smotherman Top 20 incl. ties +250 (BetMGM)

We’re at a place and a tournament that awards approach play even more so than many other weeks on the PGA Tour. Why wouldn’t I take Smotherman, who leads the field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, to have some success here? He’s tailed off with the consistency a bit of late, which is why I’m not getting too aggressive, but I believe he can use his iron and wedge game enough to get inside the Top 20 this week.

Brian Giuffra: Ryo Hisatsune Winner Without Tommy Fleetwood, Robert MacIntyre, Collin Morikawa, Si Woo Kim, Ludvig Aberg +3200 (DraftKings)

This is strictly a value play – with some thought put into it. Hisatsune’s odds to finish Top 5 are +700, but I can get him for nearly 4x that to finish ahead of everyone other than the favorites? As I mentioned, Hisatsune already has a runner-up this year and was Top 10 at Pebble with a much deeper field. You can, of course, back him Top 10 for around +350 or Top 5 for above. I’m throwing caution to the wind this week and looking for a big payout.

Winning Score

Iain MacMillan: -15
Brian Kirschner: -11
Brad Thomas: -12
Byron Lindeque:-13
Cody Williams: -17
Brian Giuffra: -14