Valkyries vs. Aces Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet WNBA Semifinals Game 3

The defending champion Las Vegas Aces have been pushed to the brink in the WNBA Semifinals, as the No. 2-seeded Golden State Valkyries took care of business at home in Games 1 and 2.

After holding Las Vegas to just 60 points in Game 1, the Valkyries survived a fourth-quarter push by A’ja Wilson and Co. to win 83-81 on Wednesday night. Now, they’re just one win away from the WNBA Finals, a shocking feat for a franchise in its second year in the league.

Gabby Williams has been dominant for the Valkyries in the playoffs, dropping 25 points in Game 1 and 20 points in Game 2 of this series. However, she and the Valkyries are underdogs on the road in Game 3.

Golden State went 6-3 against the spread as a road underdog during the regular season, but can it take down the defending champs on their home floor?

The Aces can’t be counted out until they’re eliminated, as this core has won three of the last four WNBA titles.

Let’s check out of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Game 3.

Valkyries vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Valkyries +4.5 (-115)
Aces -4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Valkyries: +150
Aces: -180

Total

156.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Valkyries vs. Aces How to Watch

Date: Friday, Oct. 9
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
How to Watch (TV): Peacock/NBCSN
Series: Golden State leads 2-0

Valkyries vs. Aces Injury Reports

Valkyries Injury Report

None to report

Aces Injury Report

Jewell Loyd -- questionable
Stephanie Talbot -- questionable
NaLyssa Smith -- out

Valkyries vs. Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

A’ja Wilson OVER 26.5 Points (-123)

Can the reigning league MVP keep her team’s season alive?

Wilson averaged 26.2 points per game in the regular season, but she’s fallen short of that mark in the first two games of this series, putting up 24 points in each of the first two games while shooting a combined 17-for-37 from the field.

That’s not up to the four-time MVP’s standards, as she shot over 52 percent from the field and over 40 percent from 3 in the regular season.

With Las Vegas’ season on the line, I expect a massive workload for the former South Carolina star on Friday night. I don’t expect her and the Aces to go quietly, and this prop has come down a bit from where it was to open the WNBA Semifinals.

Valkyries vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Golden State is a great bet to cover in Game 3:

Are the Valkyries getting too many points on Friday night?

Golden State has covered the spread in back-to-back games in this series, and it snapped a three-game losing streak against the Aces (from the regular season) with the first two games in the WNBA Semifinals.

The Valkyries’ defense (No. 1 in the WNBA) has won the battle so far against the Aces’ No. 2 offense, holding them to just 141 points in two games. With Las Vegas pretty thin on the bench at this point in the season, I don’t love betting on it to cover by multiple possessions, even at home.

The Aces are 14-9 against the spread when favored at home in 2026, but the Valkyries are equally as good as road underdogs, covering in six of nine games in that spot.

Since the Aces have not been able to pull away offensively – and have no answer for Gabby Williams – I expect Golden State’s defense to keep it in this game.

During the regular season, the Valkyries actually had a better net rating on the road (plus-7.8) than the Aces did at home (plus-5.5). An upset would be shocking, but there’s a good chance Golden State covers in Game 3.

Pick: Valkyries +4.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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