Virginia vs. SMU Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 7

SMU is favored against Virginia in Week 7 of the college football season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Virginia Cavaliers and SMU Mustangs are set to face each other in Week 7 ACC action.

Both teams are looking to stay in the hunt in the ACC standings, each entering this week with a 2-1 conference record.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this Saturday afternoon showdown.

Virginia vs. SMU Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Virginia +8.5 (-110)
• SMU -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Virginia +260
• SMU -330

Total

• OVER 52.5 (-110)
• UNDER 52.5 (-110)

Virginia vs. SMU How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, October 17
• Time: Noon ET
• Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CW
• Virginia record: 4-2 (2-1 in ACC)
• SMU record: 4-1 (2-1 in ACC)

Virginia vs. SMU Betting Trends

• SMU won and covered against Virginia in their most recent meeting in 2024
• Virginia is 2-3 against the spread this season
• The OVER is 3-2 in Virginia games this season
• SMU is 2-3 against the spread this season
• The UNDER is 3-2 in SMU games this season

Virginia vs. SMU Key Player to Watch

• Yamir Knight, WR - SMU Mustangs

Yamir Knight has been the clear No. 1 target in the passing game for the Mustangs this season. He has racked up 29 receptions, 10 more than any other pass-catcher, along with 367 yards and two touchdowns. Virginia will have to find a way to slow him down on Saturday.

Virginia vs. SMU Prediction and Best Bet

I don't think SMU is a good enough team to be deserving of being this big of favorites.

The Mustangs have a great passing offense, but that feeds into Virginia's defensive strength. They rank second in the country in opponent pass success rate. The way to beat the Cavaliers is to run the football, but the Mustangs are 123rd in EPA per rush and 107th in rush success rate, leaving them without an effective run game and thus unable to attack the Cavaliers where they're weakest.

Offensively, Virginia is as average as they come, ranking around the middle of the pack in college football in both metrics. They'll be able to put up some points on the board against a SMU defense that's 90th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play.

Give me the points with Virginia.

Pick: Virginia +8.5 (-110) via FanDuel

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