Warriors vs. Suns Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Play-In Tournament

Steph Curry isn’t ready to go home.

The No. 10-seeded Golden State Warriors pulled off a comeback, upset win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday night, giving them a chance to play for the No. 8 seed on Friday against the Phoenix Suns.

Despite missing 27 games in a row during the regular season with a knee injury, Curry showed why he’s a Finals MVP, knocking down seven 3-pointers to beat the Clips on Wednesday. The Suns, who were the No. 7 seed at the end of the regular season, will have their hands full with a Warriors team that has nothing to lose after an injury-filled regular season.

Phoenix dropped Tuesday's play-in game with the Portland Trail Blazers, but it is favored at home in this matchup with Golden State, which was 11-games under .500 on the road in the regular season.

The Suns have put together an impressive bounce-back campaign, and they’d love to pay it off with a playoff appearance. The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder are waiting for the winner of this game, but that doesn’t mean that making the playoffs isn’t a huge accomplishment for both squads.

Can the Warriors become the second No. 10 seed in play-in history to make the playoffs? Or, will the Suns and Devin Booker slam the door at home?

Here’s a complete preview of this game, equipped with the latest betting odds, a prop to consider and my game prediction.

Warriors vs. Suns Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Warriors +2.5 (-105)
Suns -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Warriors: +120
Suns: -142

Total

218.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Warriors vs. Suns How to Watch

Date: Friday, April 17
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Warriors record: 37-45
Suns record: 45-37

Warriors vs. Suns Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

Jimmy Butler -- out
Moses Moody -- out
Quinten Post -- out
Kristaps Porzingis -- questionable

Suns Injury Report

Grayson Allen -- questionable
Mark Williams -- questionable

Warriors vs. Suns Best NBA Prop Bets

Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

Steph Curry 4+ 3-Pointers Made (-171)

I shared this pick in today’s Peter’s Points – my daily NBA Best Bets column – as Curry looks back to his usual self after missing most of the second half of the NBA season:

It was always Steph Curry in a win-or-go-home game on Wednesday, and I’m going right back to the well with this prop on Friday night.

Curry appears to be back to his usual workload, playing over 35 minutes in the win over the Clippers, and he knocked down 7-of-12 shots from beyond the arc.

While the two-time league MVP has only appeared in three of the meetings with the Suns during the regular season, he did clear this line twice. Phoenix has a solid 3-point defense – fourth in the league in opponent 3s made per game – but Curry is not matchup dependent when it comes to his shooting.

The star guard has made four or more 3s in four of five games since returning to the lineup, and he finished the regular season averaging 4.4 3-pointers per game while shooting 39.3 percent from deep.

Warriors vs. Suns Prediction and Pick

Let’s be honest, are we really going to fade Steph Curry in a win-or-go home game? I’m not.

Curry and Draymond Green have played in too many big games to bet against in this spot, and Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford are looking to be real weapons for this Warriors team at this point in the season. The Suns don’t have nearly as much playoff experience after Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks, and Phoenix’s lack of depth should help the Warriors hang around in this matchup.

The Suns are a far better defensive team, but they were under .500 against the spread when favored at home this season. Curry is the best player in this game, and he already took over Wednesday’s play-in matchup to keep Golden State’s season alive.

There are a lot of numbers that don’t back up the Warriors in this game, but their season-long statistics are skewed a lot by Curry missing 39 games. When the star guard plays, the Warriors are 25-19 (counting the play-in tournament). That makes them an interesting underdog bet against a Suns team that has overachieved all season long.

Pick: Warriors Moneyline (+124 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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