Washington Commanders Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Don't Expect Commanders to Bounce Back)

The Washington Commanders had a dream season in 2024. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels put together a historic season at quarterback en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the team finished at 12-5, falling one game short of advancing to the Super Bowl.

As a result, the Commanders were one of the more popular picks to win the NFC in 2025, but they came crashing down, going just 5-12 with Daniels playing in just seven games before suffering an injury.

Commanders fans are hoping they return to their 2024 form, but if the betting market is any indication, I wouldn't bank on that happening. Let's dive into their projected win total for the upcoming campaign.

2026 Washington Commanders Win Total Projection

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 7.5 Wins (-125)
UNDER 7.5 Wins (+105)

The Commanders' win total is set at 7.5 for the 2026 season, with the OVER juiced to -125. That means there's an implied probability of 46.51% that they'll go 8-9 or better for the upcoming season.

Even if the Commanders hit the OVER by a win or two and finish at 8-9 or 9-8, that's a far way off from the 12-5 season they enjoyed just two years ago, and it likely won't be enough for a spot in the NFL Playoffs.

Daniels' performance as quarterback is going to be the biggest question mark for this team. He didn't look like his former self when he did play last year. He made an appearance in seven games, going 2-5 while completing just 60.6% of passes, 180.3 passing yards per game, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions. It's a bad sign for a quarterback who relies on his legs for the majority of his success. He may bounce back this year, but there is a higher likelihood he looks closer to how he did last year than he looked in 2024.

The biggest thing working against this Commanders team is their schedule. When looking at their opponent's projected win totals, they have the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL behind only the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Panthers.

With all of that being said, I still think their win total is one game too low. They may not return to the playoffs, but an 8-9 or 9-8 season is very much in the cards for them. I broke down why I'm betting the OVER on their win total projection in my season betting preview:

In 2024, the Washington Commanders won virtually every one-score game they were in and converted third and fourth downs at an unprecedented rate. They were bound to regress in 2025, and regress they did, but I think they're better than their final record showed last season. With a healthy Jayden Daniels and new offensive and defensive coordinators, I expect them to be around a .500 team and potentially flirt with a playoff spot.

Pick: Commanders OVER 7.5 Wins (-125) via DraftKings

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