Will Ty Simpson Be a First-Round Pick? (2026 NFL Draft Odds Say Expect Alabama QB to be Selected on Day 1)

The NFL Draft is this week, and there are plenty of intriguing storylines and questions to explore before the first official pick is made. One of the best ways to explore those highly debated topics is by diving into the plethora of betting odds that sportsbooks across the country have made available.

We all know by now that Fernando Mendoza is going to be the top quarterback selected in the draft. He has an implied probability of 99.5% based on the betting odds to be taken by the Las Vegas Raiders with the first pick. What's not known is when Ty Simpson, the likely second quarterback selected, will be taken.

Let's take a look at the odds.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Will Ty Simpson be a First Round Pick?

Yes -200 (66.67% implied probability)

When Will Ty Simpson be Drafted?

OVER 24.5 (-270)
UNDER 24.5 (+195)

What Team Will Draft Ty Simpson?

Cardinals -200
Jets +280
Rams +550
Steelers +1600
Browns +1900

The odds tell us the story surrounding the Alabama quarterback in this NFL Draft. He's -200 to be a first-round pick, but his odds are -270 that he'll be selected later than the 24th pick, which means there's a 72.97% chance he's selected with the 25th pick or later in the draft.

The Cardinals are favorites to select Simpson, another bet that's being offered at -200 odds.

Some of those odds don't add up. The Cardinals only have one first-round pick at this moment in time, the No. 3 pick, and they're unlikely to take Simpson in that spot. Their next pick is 34th overall, which is a second-round pick. For the favorite to cash for all three different bets, the Cardinals would have to trade back into the first round to take Simpson, which is certainly a possibility.

An interesting situation is the New York Jets, who hold the No. 2 overall pick, but also have the No. 16 overall pick. The Jets need a quarterback and are second on the odds list of drafting Simpson. Could they take him with their second first-round pick?

Every year, there seems to be one quarterback that falls out of the first round. Last year's infamous example of Shedeur Sanders was exactly that. Will Simpson be the 2026 example of an expected first-round pick falling to the second round or later? This time around, the betting market doesn't seem to think so.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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