Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Breanna Stewart, Mercury vs. Storm)

Game 1 of the NBA Finals is the main focus of the basketball world on Wednesday night, but the WNBA has two key Commissioner’s Cup matchups featuring two previous winners.

The New York Liberty open the action with their Commissioner’s Cup opener this season against the Toronto Tempo, who are off to a solid start (5-4) as a first-year expansion team. That game is set to tip at 7:30, a nice appetizer before the Finals tip at 8:30 p.m. EST.

In the Western Conference, two struggling teams – the Seattle Storm and Phoenix Mercury – look to earn their first Commissioner’s Cup wins in 2026.

Both the Storm and Mercury lost their Commissioner’s Cup openers on Monday, but one of them will get back in the win column tonight. That’s a good sign for these Western Conference squads, as Phoenix is on a six-game skid while the Storm have dropped three games in a row.

It’s been a great start to the season when it comes to my WNBA Best Bets column, and I’m looking to keep things rolling with one prop and one total for this two-game slate.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 30-14 (+10.84 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 205-178-2 (+13.74 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Breanna Stewart OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-143)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm UNDER 162.5 (-110)

Breanna Stewart OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-143)

This season, Liberty star Breanna Stewart has done a great job on the glass, averaging 8.6 rebounds per game. She’s cleared 7.5 boards in six of her nine games, and I’m buying the former league MVP in this matchup.

Toronto ranks 11th in the WNBA in rebounding percentage and ninth in opponent rebounds per game, as it has started the campaign with multiple frontcourt players on the shelf. The Tempo also love to push the pace (sixth in the league), which leads to a few extra possessions on each side every game.

While Stewart isn’t known for her rebounding, she did average 9.3 and 8.5 boards in her first two seasons in New York before dropping down to 6.5 rebounds per game in an injury-riddled 2025 season.

I think the Liberty star is a little undervalued at this number as she gets back to her usual numbers. Stewie averages 8.5 rebounds per game in her WNBA career.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm UNDER 162.5 (-110)

These teams are two of the worst offenses in the WNBA this season, ranking 14th (Seattle) and 11th (Phoenix) in offensive rating.

Seattle scored just 56 points in Monday’s loss to Dallas, and it is averaging just over 76 points per game through 10 games.

Neither of these teams loves to push the pace (10th and ninth this season), and the Storm actually have a top-five defensive rating and rank fifth in opponent points per game. The UNDER has hit in seven of Seattle’s 10 games as a result.

I can’t trust Phoenix to cover as a favorite right now, and the offense for the Mercury has ground to a halt recently. They’ve scored 77, 68, 74 and 80 points in their last four games and only have three games all season where they reached 90 points.

Rather than bet on a side between two slumping teams, bettors should expect a low-scoring affair on Wednesday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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