Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Caitlin Clark, Sparks-Sky, Sun-Mercury)

The WNBA is less than a week away from the All-Star break, and there are some interesting playoff races occurring, especially at the top of the standings with the four best teams currently all within 2.5 games of each other in the Western Conference.

On Friday, a few Eastern Conference contenders – Indiana and Atlanta – headline the night’s action, as both squads are looking to jump into the top four in the league by the time the playoffs roll around.

After the postponement of the New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wings matchup on Thursday left us with just one game, there are four great WNBA matchups to dive into on Friday:

Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever
Los Angeles Sparks @ Chicago Sky
Atlanta Dream @ Toronto Tempo
Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury

I’ve narrowed things down to three plays for Friday’s action, including a bet for Caitlin Clark, who has struggled shooting the ball in the month of July.

Let’s examine the latest odds and analysis for today’s edition of Peter’s Points.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 62-48 (+2.49 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 237-211-2 (+5.39 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Caitlin Clark UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-152)
Los Angeles Sparks-Chicago Sky OVER 183.5 (-105)
Connecticut Sun +5.5 (-115) vs. Phoenix Mercury

Caitlin Clark UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-152)

Since returning from a back injury earlier this month, Clark has really struggled shooting the 3-ball, going 3-for-19 in three games. She’s only made one shot from deep in each of those matchups, dropping her season-loing 3-point percentage to 32.0 percent.

Clark is a volume shooter from beyond the arc, so taking any UNDER on her comes with some risk. However, she’s been on a minutes limit since returning, failing to clear 26 minutes in any of her three games.

Now, she takes on a Seattle team that is No. 1 in the WNBA in opponent 3-point percentage. Clark was 2-for-4 from beyond the arc in her first meeting with the Storm, and she’s only posted seven games with three or more made 3-pointers this season.

If the star guard remains on a minutes limit, the UNDER is a great bet on Friday.

Los Angeles Sparks-Chicago Sky OVER 183.5 (-105)

The Los Angeles Sparks and Chicago Sky combined for 189 points in their first meeting this season, and I’m expecting another track meet on Friday night.

Los Angeles has hit the OVER in a league-high 73.9 percent of its games, and the Sparks are built to play high-scoring games. They rank No. 1 in the WNBA pace, dead last in defensive rating and opponent points per game and are fifth in points per game on offense.

The Sparks have either scored 100 points or allowed 100 points to a team in five of their last seven games.

Meanwhile, the Sky are equipped to play fast-paced games, as they are No. 3 in the league in pace and are bottom five team in opponent points per game and defensive rating this season.

Over its last 10 games, Chicago has really turned things around on offense, ranking fourth in offensive rating and seventh in effective field goal percentage. I expect these teams to push 190 points again after a 102-87 win by L.A. the last time they played.

The OVER is 8-3 when the Sky are at home this season and 9-2 when the Sparks are on the road.

Connecticut Sun +5.5 (-115) vs. Phoenix Mercury

Can the Sun pull off an upset on Friday?

I’m not willing to go that far, but I do think CT is in a great spot to cover against a reeling Phoenix team.

The Mercury are in the bottom five in the WNBA in net rating (minus-4.2) over their last 10 games while the Sun have a positive net rating (plus-0.5) during that same stretch. CT has done that with defense, ranking third in the league in defensive rating over its last 10.

The Sun offense is still really shaky, but Phoenix has not demonstrated all year that it can win at home, never mind cover the spread. The Sun are 3-8 straight up and against the spread at Mortgage Matchup Center, and they enter this game on a three-game skid.

I think Connecticut can hang around in this game, especially after some impressive showings against Minnesota earlier this month.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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