Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Dream vs. Fever, Valkyries vs. Lynx on Thursday)

The WNBA Commissioner’s Cup rolls on with two great matchups on Thursday, June 4.

The Atlanta Dream (No. 1 in the Eastern Conference) kick things off on the road against Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever, who have dropped two games in a row to fall to .500 in the 2026 season. Indiana is the defending champion in the Commissioner’s Cup, and it’ll need to turn things around over the next month to compete in the championship game again in 2026.

In the Western Conference, the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx take on the Golden State Valkyries, who blew out the Portland Fire in their first Commissioner’s Cup matchup this week. Minnesota is also 1-0 in Cup play and has won five games in a row to take the top spot in the league.

The most impressive part? The Lynx are doing all of this without MVP candidate Napheesa Collier, who has been out with an ankle injury.

So, with two great matchups set for Thursday, how should we bet on them?

I’m going to take a side in each of these games, and I’m looking to keep a wild start to the season going. After Wednesday’s games, I’m 32-14 with my picks in 2026 and up over 12 units.

That’s going to be tough to maintain for an entire season, but let’s see if the hot streak continues on Thursday night.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 32-14 (+12.44 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 207-178-2 (+15.35 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Atlanta Dream Moneyline (-102) vs. Indiana Fever
Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (-148) vs. Golden State Valkyries

Atlanta Dream Moneyline (-102) vs. Indiana Fever

Indiana is 3-2 at home so far in the 2026 season, but I think the Dream are being undervalued in this matchup.

Atlanta has the fourth-best net rating in the WNBA and is 5-3 against the spread so far in the 2026 campaign. Meanwhile, the Fever have fallen to seventh in the league in net rating and 10th in defensive rating in 2026.

The Dream hang their hat on the defensive end (No. 2 in defensive rating), and they’re great at defending the 3-point line, ranking No. 1 in opponent 3-point field goal percentage and opponent 3s made per game. That should be an issue for a Fever team that takes the fifth-most 3s in the W this season.

Indiana’s start to the season has been tough to figure out, and the only quality win that Caitlin Clark and company have racked up is against Golden State. Outside of that, the Fever have some questionable losses to Portland and Washington.

I think the Dream are undervalued as 1.5-point dogs in this matchup.

Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (-148) vs. Golden State Valkyries

Minnesota is going to be a serious force once Collier returns, as it already ranks first in the W in net rating, first in defensive rating and fourth in offensive rating.

The Lynx are absolutely rolling right now, improving to 8-1 against the spread with their win over Phoenix earlier in the week. They have an average scoring margin of plus-12.0 in the 2026 campaign, and they’re a tough matchup for a Golden State team that has dropped games to some of the best teams in the league (Las Vegas, Indiana) so far in 2026.

Now, the Valkyries are 2-1 on the road and are in the top three in the league in net rating, defensive rating and offensive rating, but I like the Lynx to win this game at home.

Golden State is clearly a contender, but the team’s lack of a No. 1 scoring option is a concern against the best defense in the WNBA.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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