Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Kelsey Mitchell, Sparks vs. Lynx, Tempo vs. Fire)

The top three MVP candidates in the WNBA are all in action on Thursday night, making for one of the most exciting three-game slates that we’ll get all season.

A’ja Wilson (the MVP favorite) and the Las Vegas Aces kick things off with a head-to-head matchup against Caitlin Clark (third in the MVP odds) and the Indiana Fever. Clark and Kelsey Mitchell have formed the best guard duo in the WNBA this season, and they’d love to pick up a win at home as they attempt to chase down a top-two seed in the W.

Right now, the Fever are two games back of the No. 2-seeded Aces, who are just 6-4 in their last 10 games.

That matchup is the first of two on Prime Video on Thursday, as the Minnesota Lynx and Olivia Miles (No. 2 in the MVP odds) look to extend their current winning streak to 11 games in a matchup against the Los Angeles Sparks.

L.A. is playing a back-to-back after losing to the Chicago Sky on Wednesday, and it appears to be focused on the future after trading All-Star guard Kelsey Plum to Phoenix at the trade deadline.

Finally, the two newest teams W – the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire – meet for the second time this season. One of these teams will snap a lengthy losing streak in this matchup, though neither is really in the mix to make the playoffs.

With so much at stake in the playoff push and the MVP race, I’m eyeing a bet from each game, including a prop for Mitchell, who may have an MVP case herself in 2026.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 76-60 (+1.73 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 251-223-2 (+4.63 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Kelsey Mitchell OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-174)
Minnesota Lynx Team Total OVER 102.5 (-115)
Toronto Tempo-Portland Fire OVER 186.5 (-120)

Kelsey Mitchell OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-174)

Mitchell has been on a tear from beyond the arc, hitting three or more shots from deep in 14 consecutive games and 16 of her last 17.

During that 17-game stretch, Mitchell is hitting a ridiculous 50.8 percent of her shots from deep, averaging 3.7 makes on 7.3 attempts per game. She’s now shooting 43.8 percent from 3 for the season, shaking off what was a slow start in 2026.

Now, she takes on a Las Vegas team that has been pretty average at defending the 3-ball, ranking ninth in opponent 3s made per game and eighth in opponent 3-point percentage. Mitchell is 3-of-9 and 3-of-8 from 3 in her two meetings with the Aces this season.

As long as the volume remains the same for the Fever guard, it’s impossible to fade her at this number during this hot streak. If you’re looking for a better payout, you can take her to make four 3-pointers, but I’ll stick with the bet that has a 94 percent hit rate over her last 17 games.

Minnesota Lynx Team Total OVER 102.5 (-115)

The Lynx have one of the best offenses in the WNBA this season, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they’re heavily favored against the Los Angeles Sparks, who allow the most points per game in the WNBA.

However, I’m looking at Minnesota's team total in this matchup rather than laying the 15.5 points with the No. 1 seed.

The Lynx have fallen short of 100 points in both of their meetings with the Sparks this season, putting up 96 and 99 points in those contests. They have scored 100 or more points in six of their 10 games during this winning streak, and they are No. 2 in the league in points per game (92.7) this season.

With Napheesa Collier (ankle) back in the lineup, Minnesota is even more dangerous on the offensive end of the floor, and that’s saying something given the team’s season-long numbers. Not only are the Lynx No. 2 in points per game, but they rank third in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio.

The Sparks’ defense has been awful in 2026, ranking 13th in defensive rating while allowing more than 94 points per game. Plus, L.A. is No. 1 in the league in pace, which usually leads to a ton of high-scoring matchups.

I expect a major offensive game from the Lynx, who should extend their winning streak in the process.

Toronto Tempo-Portland Fire OVER 186.5 (-120)

One of the best trends in the WNBA this season – from a betting perspective – has been with the Tempo and the OVER.

In 13 road games this season, Toronto has hit the OVER 12 times, by far the best mark in the WNBA. So, should we go back to the well tonight?

Portland and Toronto combined for less than 186.5 points in their first meeting this season, but I think the OVER is a great play on Thursday.

Toronto has hit the OVER in 66.7 percent of its games this season while the Fire have done so in 19 of 30 games. These teams both struggle on defense, ranking 15th (Toronto) and 14th (Portland) in defensive rating and 14th (Toronto) and 13th (Portland) in opponent points per game.

On offense, they have been average, both sitting in the top 10 in the league in offensive rating and points per game. Plus, Portland has either scored or allowed 100 points in four of its last five matchups.

In a matchup between two teams on long losing streaks, I’ll root for a high-scoring affair on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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