Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Liberty vs. Mercury Game 3)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 3 between the New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury on Friday night.

The Mercury are favored in Game 3 against New York. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The Phoenix Mercury weren’t going to go quietly in the first round of the WNBA playoffs, and they made a statement in a 26-point win over the New York Liberty on Wednesday night.

The defending champs now have to go on the road to win an advance to the second round. 

Oddsmakers have favored the Mercury in Game 3, but can they hold off New York?

The Liberty won Game 1 of this series in overtime in Phoenix, but the Mercury are now 4-2 against New York (including playoffs) in the 2025 season.

With just one game left in the W in the first round, why don’t we place a few bets on it? 

Here’s a breakdown of my favorite play for this series finale.

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 76-78-2 (-3.63 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 160-154-2 (+0.83 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• New York Liberty-Phoenix Mercury UNDER 156 (-110)

New York Liberty-Phoenix Mercury UNDER 156 (-110)

The first two games of this series have been relatively low-scoring – even though Game 1 went to overtime.

These squads combined for just 145 points in Game 1 and 146 points in Game 2, with one of the two teams failing to crack 70 points in both matchups.

With so much at stake in Game 3, I wouldn’t be surprised if these defenses hit yet another level on Friday night. 

Overall, the Mercury and Liberty both ranked in the top half in the WNBA in defense rating during the regular season, and after playing three games that went way OVER this number early in the campaign, they combined for just 143 points in their last regular-season meeting.

The UNDER was 25-18-1 in New York’s games during the regular season and 24-18-2 in Phoenix's games.

I think the total is a touch too high for Friday’s series finale.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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