Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Wings vs. Valkyries Game 3, Paige Bueckers)

The final spot in the WNBA Semifinals is on the line on Friday night, as the No. 2-seeded Golden State Valkyries look to close out the No. 7-seeded Dallas Wings in Game 3.

Dallas is set as an underdog for the third game in a row, but Arike Ogunbowale and Co. kept their season alive on Wednesday night behind 45 points from the four-time All-Star.

Ogunbowale outdueled Golden State’s Gabby Williams (36 points) in the matchup, setting up a winner-take-all Game 3 in Golden State.

The Wings were 0-4 against the Valkyries this season prior to their Game 2 win, and they remain major underdogs to win the WNBA Finals – and just to advance to the semis – on Friday.

Paige Bueckers (3-for-13 in Game 2) and Co. are looking to prove that they can compete with anyone in the league, and with the Minnesota Lynx eliminated from the playoffs, a championship is on the table for just about anyone remaining in the playoffs.

I’m targeting Bueckers in the prop market on Friday, and I’m also eyeing a play for the total in this matchup. Let’s turn things around after a rough start to the week in Peter’s Points.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 105-94 (-9.04 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 280-259-2 (-6.14 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Paige Bueckers OVER 3.5 Rebounds (-166)
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries OVER 157.5 Points (-110)

Paige Bueckers OVER 3.5 Rebounds (-166)

During the regular season, Wings star Paige Bueckers averaged 4.1 rebounds per game, and she’s pulled down six and four in the first two games of this series.

The All-Star guard did not shoot well in Game 2 (3-for-13 from the field), but she remained a force on the glass and played over 43 minutes. Dating back to the regular season, Bueckers has four or more boards in nine of her last 10 games.

She’s going to play a ton of minutes on Friday with the Wings’ season on the line, and the Valkyries haven’t exactly been dominant on the glass this season, ranking seventh in the WNBA in rebound percentage.

I will take a shot on Bueckers to reach her season average for the third consecutive game in this series.

Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries OVER 157.5 Points (-110)

On paper, this series should have seen two low-scoring games to this point, but we’ve gotten the complete opposite.

The Wings and Valkyries combined for 184 points in Game 1 (Golden State reached triple-digits) and 208 points in an overtime matchup in Game 2. They easily hit the OVER on the total in both games, yet it remains under 160 for Game 3.

Now, there are a ton of reasons why oddsmakers are expecting low-scoring games between these teams.

The Wings and Valkyries both hit the UNDER more than any other team in the WNBA (26 times) in the regular season, and they rank No. 15 (Golden State) and No. 13 (Dallas) in pace. On top of that, the Valkyries had the No. 1 defensive rating in the league in the regular season.

Now, through five meetings this season, these teams have combined for 171, 170, 148, 184 and 208 points. They’ve cleared this total four out of five times, and they rank No. 1 (Golden State) and No. 4 (Dallas) in offensive rating this postseason despite playing at the slowest pace in the league.

With the season on the line for both squads, I think this total is a little too low, especially since we’ve already gotten an overtime game in this series.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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