Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, April 28

The New York Yankees are tied for the best run differential in the American League and have a 6.5-game lead on the Baltimore Orioles heading into Monday’s series opener.

New York swept a doubleheader with the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday, and it’s looking to build on that momentum against a Baltimore team that has dropped three games in a row and is off to a terrible 10-17 start in 2025.

Will Warren will be on the mound for the New York for the sixth time this season, and he’ll take on Orioles rookie right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who has posted a 3.54 ERA across five outings in the big leagues.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and

Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

Yankees -1.5 (+130)
Orioles +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline

Yankees: -122
Orioles: +102

Total

9.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Yankees vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

New York: Will Warren (1-0, 4.79 ERA)
Baltimore: Tomoyuki Sugano (2-1, 3.54 ERA)

Yankees vs. Orioles How to Watch

Date: Monday, April 28
Time: 6:35 p.m. EST
Venue: Camden Yards
How to Watch (TV): MASN, YES Network
Yankees record: 17-11
Orioles record: 10-17

Yankees vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+185)

There hasn’t been a hotter hitter in baseball this season than Aaron Judge, and he’s one of my favorite bets to go deep on Monday – which I shared in today’s home run picks for SI Betting:

New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge has been unreal so far in the 2025 season, hitting .406 with eight homers and 27 runs batted in while posting an absurd 1.217 OPS.

Fresh off of an MVP, Judge has been the best player in baseball once again to start the 2025 season – even with Juan Soto no longer in a Yankee uniform.

On Monday, Judge is facing the Baltimore Orioles, a team that he has thrived against in his career. In 107 games against Baltimore, Judge is hitting .313 with 117 hits, 45 home runs, 96 RBIs and 103 runs scored. He’s nearly hitting a home run for every two games that he plays against Baltimore.

Plus, Judge is facing Orioles rookie Tomoyuki Sugano, who has pitched well in the 2025 season (3.54 ERA), but is prone to the long ball. Sugano has given up six home runs in the 2025 season, including at least one homer in four straight starts.

I love this matchup for Judge.

Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

When it comes to betting on this game, I’m eyeing a total, as both starters could be fade candidates. I broke down this pick in today’s MLB Best Bets on SI Betting:

The New York Yankees are the No. 1 offense in Major League Baseball when it comes to OPS and they’re No. 2 in runs scored entering their series opener against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday night.

Baltimore, which is off to a dreadful start at 10-17 and has lost three in a row, has not been nearly as good offensively, ranking 21st and 19th in those respective categories.

On Monday, the Orioles have rookie Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound, and while he’s pitched decently this season (3.54 ERA), some of his underlying numbers show that he’s due for some regression.

Sugano has allowed six homers over his last four starts, and his Fielding Independent Pitching has soared to 5.84. In addition to that, he ranks in just the ninth percentile in expected ERA, first percentile in strikeout percentage and second percentile in whiff percentage.

That’s going to be a problem against a potent Yankees offense. While I could pick the Yankees to win, I’m not sold on that with Will Warren toeing the rubber for New York.

This season, Warren has a 4.79 ERA, and the Yanks are just 2-3 in his five outings. While he hasn’t been terrible, Warren has given up at least two earned runs in four of his five appearances in 2025.

So, while both starters are likely in the game, I’m taking the OVER 4.5 runs in the first five innings. Sugano has also given up two or more earned runs in four of his five starts, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see both teams get on the board early on Monday night.

Pick: First Five Innings OVER 4.5 (-180 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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