Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Third Round

U.S. Open favorite Carlos Alcaraz is through to the third round of the tournament after taking down Jaime Faria in the second round in four sets.

Faria took the first set off of Alcaraz, but the No. 2-ranked player in the tournament dominated the rest of the way, winning the next three sets 6-0, 6-3, 6-2.

Now, Alcaraz is heavily favored in the third round in his second-ever meeting with Yibing Wu, who has not dropped a set in two rounds in the 2026 U.S. Open.

Wu lost to Alcaraz in their first meeting back in 2024, but he’s had some solid success at the U.S. Open, winning five matches in three appearances. He last made the third round in this tournament back in 2022.

A wrist injury cost Alcaraz a lot of the 2026 season, but he has looked as dominant as ever as a returner in this tournament. He’s looking to continue his quest for back-to-back U.S. Open titles in what could be a lopsided match on Friday.

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path in the 2026 U.S. Open and my prediction for this match.

Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Yibing Wu: +870
Carlos Alcaraz: -1060

Total

31.5 (Over -125/Under -115)

Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

Date: Friday, Sept. 4
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN/Unlimited

Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz History and U.S. Open Performance

Alcaraz and Wu have met once before, facing off back in 2024 in the Round of 32 at the ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai. Alcaraz took that match in straight sets, (7-6, 6-3), but he needed a tiebreak to win the first set.

Yibing Wu

This is Wu’s third appearance at the U.S. Open and his first since 2023 when he was eliminated in the second round. The 26-year-old had his best-ever Grand Slam finish in the 2022 U.S. Open, reaching the third round, and he’s looking to surpass that in this match with Alcaraz.

So far this eyar, Wu has two second-round exits and one first-round exit in Grand Slam events. In this tournament, he’s played well, beating both Adam Walton (Round 1) and James Duckworth (Round 2) in straight sets.

Carlos Alcaraz

A two-time U.S. Open winner, Alcaraz is the favorite to win once again in 2026, and he’s only dropped one set through two matches. A wrist injury cost Alcaraz a bunch of time in 2026, and he isn’t serving as well as we’re used to, but he still is elite in return games.

He won the event back in 2022 before winning again in 2025 and has made at least the quarterfinals in all but one of his showings. That came in 2024 when he was eliminated in the second round.

Prior to the U.S. Open this year, Alcaraz won 22 of his 25 matches. He’s heavily favored to reach Round 4 for the fifth time in six U.S. Open appearances after taking down Roman Safiullin in straight sets and Jaime Faria in four sets in the first two rounds.

Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction and Pick

I took Alcaraz to beat Faria in straight sets in Round 2, yet he ended up blowing the first set before cruising to a win.

Some of these early-round matches are hard to predict, as the moneyline and set spread prices aren’t favorable, which leads to betting on stars to win in straight sets – leaving zero room for error for some of the top-ranked players.

I’m going to avoid a side in this match and focus on the total in Round 3.

Alcaraz played 30 and 33 games in his first two matches while Wu played 33 and 28 to advance to the third round. I do think it’s notable that their lone match against each other went the distance in the first set, and it’s possible Wu can make Alcaraz work a little more than his first two opponents.

The No. 2-ranked player in the tournament, Alcaraz has not been as great serving due to his wrist injury, which may make it tougher for him to win quickly as the rounds progress. He’s still arguably the best player in the world, so I’d understand bettors that believe he can win in straight sets.

However, if this match does go to a fourth set, the OVER is going to be a great bet. I’ll give Wu the benefit of the doubt that he can make Alcaraz work a little to earn a spot in the fourth round.

Pick: OVER 31.5 Games (-125 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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