Zheng Qinwen vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Quarterfinals

No. 2-seed Elena Rybakina turned in a dominant fourth-round performance in the U.S. Open, defeating Naomi Osaka in straight sets to reach the quarterfinals for the first time in her career.

Rybakina has a Grand Slam win (the Australian Open) under her belt already in 2026, and she’s rebounded nicely from early exits at the French Open and Wimbledon to put herself in contention at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

In the quarterfinals, Rybakina will face unranked Zheng Qinwen, who knocked off No. 8-seed Iga Swiatek in straight sets in Round 4. Qinwen has one win over Rybakina in her career, and this will be the sixth time that the two have met and the third time in 2026.

Qinwen made back-to-back quarterfinals in the U.S. Open in 2023 and 2024, and she was the runner-up at the 2024 Australian Open. After back-to-back first-round exits in the French Open and Wimbledon this year, she is once again on the national stage in the U.S. Open.

Rybakina is the favorite in this quarterfinal showdown, but she hasn’t had the easiest time with Qinwen in her career.

Here’s a look at the odds for this match, each player’s path to the quarterfinals and my prediction.

Zheng Qinwen vs. Elena Rybakina Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Zheng Qinwen: +230
Elena Rybakina: -293

Total

22.5 (Over -110/Under -130)

Zheng Qinwen vs. Elena Rybakina How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Sept. 9
Time: 11:30 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN2

Zheng Qinwen vs. Elena Rybakina History and U.S. Open Performance

This quarterfinal matchup will mark the sixth time that Qinwen and Rybakina have faced off in their respective careers, and the No. 2 seed currently has a 4-1 edge in their meetings.

Qinwen beat Rybakina back in 2024 in the WTA Finals (on a hard court), winning 7-6, 3-6, 6-1. However, she’s come up short in both of her matches against Rybakina this year despite forcing a third set in each.

Rybakina had a win in straight sets over Qinwen in 2022 and 2023, though the 2022 match – at Wimbledon – was a 7-6, 7-5 victory.

Zheng Qinwen

Qinwen hasn’t been in a quarterfinal since the 2024 U.S. Open, and she’s knocked off some impressive opponents to get here.

Not only did Qinwen knock off the No. 8-seed Swiatek in Round 4, but she also beat No. 22-seed Madison Keys in Round 3 after losing the first set 6-1.

This year, Qinwen has not had any success in her previous Grand Slam matches, but it’s clear she plays well on hard courts, with her best Grand Slam finishes coming at either the U.S. Open or the Australian Open.

Elena Rybakina

Prior to this year, Rybakina had never had a ton of success in the U.S. Open, making her best run in 2025 with a fourth-round exit. Still, she won a Grand Slam already this year and has an elite record on hard courts. After her win over Osaka, she’s 33-7 on hard courts in 2026.

The No. 2-ranked player in the tournament did not make the fourth round at the French Open or Wimbledon, so she’s looking to build on one of her better showings in a Grand Slam this year.

To reach the quarterfinals, Rybakina has won four straight matches in straight sets, only going to one tiebreaker in the process. She needed just 17 games to get past Osaka in Round 4.

Zheng Qinwen vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction and Pick

Even though Rybakina has been on a mission in this tournament, winning all of her matches in straight sets, I think there’s a chance that Qinwen takes her to a third set on Wednesday.

In their five previous matches, three of them (the last three) have come to three sets, including both of their matches this year.

In fact, Rybakina and Qinwen have combined to play OVER 22.5 games in all but one of their previous meetings. This year, they’ve played 30 and 29 games in their two matches.

Qinwen has proven before that she can make a deep run at a Grand Slam, and she clearly wasn't phased by the moment against Swiatek.

While I lean towards Rybakina winning this match, I do think she’ll have a little more resistance than she did in the first four rounds.

Pick: OVER 22.5 Games (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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