Ronald Martinez/Getty

SI ranks every team in college basketball, starting with No. 351 Grambling State, and moving to No. 1, which will be revealed on Tuesday, Nov. 4.

By Dan Hanner & Luke Winn
October 30, 2014

We simulated the season 10,000 times so we could tell you the most likely national champion -- and how the other 350 teams fall in line after that. The answer to "Who's No. 1?" will be revealed Tuesday on SI.com and in Sports Illustrated's College Basketball Preview Issue, but we're unveiling the rankings in stages: 351-151 on Oct. 30, 150-51 on Oct. 31, 50-26 on Nov. 3, and 25-1 on Nov. 4. (SI.com's player and conference statistical projections can be found here.)

SI's 2014-15 rankings are according to a statistical projection system developed by the economist Dan Hanner with assistance from SI's Luke Winn. It's a bottom-up model that on offense, projects every Division I player's efficiency and shot volume using past college statistics (and stats of similar players over more than a decade), recruiting ratings (which have some predictive value over immediate performance and development curves), and the quality of their head coach and teammates. These stats are then placed within the context of each team's rotation, and used to make a team offensive efficiency projection.

The simulation is run 10,000 times -- and teams are ranked by their median outcome -- to account for significant variance in player performance. While past stats and recruiting rankings have some predictive value, college players are at such a developmental stage in their careers that their performance can vary far more year-to-year than their counterparts in the NBA. In the model's simulations, if a player performs well below expectations, his playing time will diminish to make room for rising teammates. Injuries and depth also come into play: A team such as Louisville, which has 11 projected quality ACC players on its roster, including two returning point guards, is projected to fare well in a vast majority of simulations. A team such as Syracuse, on the other hand, which has just one true point guard on its roster -- and an untested freshman at that -- is at more risk of negative outcomes.

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SI.com's 2014-15 College Basketball Season Preview

The model's defensive efficiency ratings are projected based on individual tempo-free defensive stats (rebound, steal and block percentages), plus a few key adjustments that try to account for team-wide aspects of defensive performance. The first is based on roster turnover: If the roster is largely the same, a team's defensive performance from 2013-14 is given a lot of weight; if turnover is significant, the coach's historical defensive performance is given more weight. Experience also matters: Teams with lots of freshmen tend to make more mistakes on defense than do upperclass-laden squads. And height is a critical factor, particularly at center: Taller teams tend to be stingier on D. (The model also prevents the defensive factors most affected by luck -- opponents' free-throw percentage and three-point percentage -- from carrying over year-to-year. Therefore North Carolina, which had a solid defense in '13-14 based largely on those "luck" factors, isn't expected to make a big improvement on D.)

*Table Key: Proj. Off. Eff. = Median projected offensive efficiency from 10,000 simulations; Proj. Def. Eff. = Median projected defensive efficiency from 10,000 simulations; Ret. Min% = percentage of overall minutes the roster returns; Top 100 = Number of players who ranked in RSCI top 100 out of high school; JUCO Top 100 = Number of players who ranked in aggregate junior college top 100; Avg. Star Rating = Rating of the rest of the roster, not including Top 100 or Juco Top 100.

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

1st

Kentucky

123.5

94.2

1st in SEC

65%

10

0

3.0

2nd

Arizona

119.4

91.2

1st in P12

64%

7

2

3.3

3rd

Wisconsin

124.1

95.1

1st in B10

82%

2

0

2.8

4th

Duke

123.9

95.6

1st in ACC

47%

10

0

 

5th

Kansas

121.4

93.7

1st in B12

51%

10

0

3.2

6th

Florida

119.5

94.3

2nd in SEC

41%

7

0

2.6

7th

Louisville

117.4

92.8

2nd in ACC

56%

9

1

2.9

8th

Villanova

117.7

94.5

1st in BE

78%

7

0

2.6

9th

Virginia

114.4

91.8

3rd in ACC

69%

5

0

3.0

10th

Gonzaga

117.1

95.5

1st in WCC

58%

4

0

2.6

11st

North Carolina

116.5

95.4

4th in ACC

70%

10

0

2.7

12nd

Texas

115.9

95.0

2nd in B12

94%

7

0

3.0

13rd

Ohio St.

112.2

92.5

2nd in B10

48%

8

0

2.9

14th

San Diego St.

112.4

92.8

1st in MWC

67%

7

0

2.6

15th

Iowa St.

116.7

96.4

3rd in B12

66%

3

2

2.7

16th

Wichita St.

116.2

96.4

1st in MVC

61%

0

3

2.5

17th

SMU

113.1

94.3

1st in Amer

72%

2

1

2.9

18th

VCU

113.3

94.6

1st in A10

69%

2

0

2.9

19th

Connecticut

112.5

94.8

2nd in Amer

41%

5

1

2.8

20th

Iowa

119.4

101.5

3rd in B10

66%

2

1

2.8

21st

Michigan St.

113.8

97.1

4th in B10

49%

4

0

3.0

22nd

Kansas St.

110.5

94.3

4th in B12

58%

0

1

2.8

23rd

Syracuse

112.3

95.9

5th in ACC

41%

7

0

3.3

24th

Michigan

118.1

100.9

5th in B10

46%

3

0

2.9

25th

Utah

112.8

96.5

2nd in P12

79%

2

2

2.2

Top-ranked Kentucky isn't the only elite team with depth. Were you aware that Duke (4th), Kansas (5th) and North Carolina (11th) all have the same amount of top-100 recruits (according to the RSCI) as the Wildcats? Meanwhile, the top-10 team with the least top-100 recruits, Wisconsin, is projected to have the nation's best offense, powered by Wooden Award candidate Frank Kaminsky, who was largely regarded as a three-star prospect out of high school.

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

26th

Stanford

114.1

97.6

3rd in P12

51%

8

0

3.0

27th

Oklahoma

115.1

98.6

5th in B12

70%

0

2

2.9

28th

Arkansas

114.8

98.4

3rd in SEC

64%

3

1

2.9

29th

Pittsburgh

113.7

97.4

6th in ACC

69%

3

1

2.8

30th

Harvard

111.2

95.3

1st in Ivy

62%

1

0

2.5

31st

Georgetown

115.2

98.7

2nd in BE

60%

7

0

2.9

32nd

Memphis

112.2

96.7

3rd in Amer

34%

8

3

2.2

33rd

Maryland

109.9

94.8

6th in B10

51%

7

0

2.7

34th

Notre Dame

118.1

102.9

7th in ACC

62%

2

0

3.1

35th

UCLA

114.0

99.5

4th in P12

34%

5

0

3.0

36th

Nebraska

109.5

96.2

7th in B10

70%

0

0

2.8

37th

Illinois

108.4

95.4

8th in B10

59%

4

0

3.0

38th

Dayton

113.5

99.9

2nd in A10

54%

1

1

2.8

39th

Miami FL

112.3

98.8

8th in ACC

34%

2

1

3.1

40th

Minnesota

112.7

99.2

9th in B10

63%

0

2

2.9

41st

Colorado

108.8

95.8

5th in P12

91%

3

0

2.8

42nd

Xavier

112.7

99.3

3rd in BE

54%

3

0

3.2

43rd

BYU

115.0

101.4

2nd in WCC

74%

0

1

2.5

44th

LSU

109.5

96.9

4th in SEC

37%

4

1

2.5

45th

Cincinnati

108.5

96.5

4th in Amer

46%

1

3

3.1

46th

Indiana

112.2

100.0

10th in B10

45%

6

0

2.5

47th

Oklahoma St.

110.2

98.4

6th in B12

39%

3

2

2.6

48th

Florida St.

109.3

97.6

9th in ACC

65%

3

2

2.7

49th

Wyoming

108.9

97.6

2nd in MWC

70%

0

0

2.3

50th

California

112.0

100.4

6th in P12

57%

2

0

2.6

Is the expanded ACC really the nation's deepest conference? Our projections have 10 Big Ten teams in the top 50 (including Indiana at 46), compared to nine for the ACC, and six each for the Big 12 and Pac-12. A sign the Mountain West is due for a down year: Its second-highest ranked team, Wyoming, checks in at No. 49.

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

51st

Mississippi

112.9

101.3

5th in SEC

69%

0

1

2.8

52nd

Tulsa

107.3

96.3

5th in Amer

72%

0

1

2.4

53rd

Colorado St.

114.5

102.8

3rd in MWC

59%

1

4

2.5

54th

Alabama

105.4

94.9

6th in SEC

62%

5

0

2.7

55th

NC State

110.9

99.9

10th in ACC

63%

8

1

3.0

56th

Baylor

113.7

102.6

7th in B12

47%

3

3

2.5

57th

Georgia St.

114.4

103.4

1st in SB

57%

2

0

2.2

58th

St. John's

107.2

96.9

4th in BE

66%

5

1

2.3

59th

Massachusetts

108.6

98.2

3rd in A10

56%

2

0

2.6

60th

Louisiana Tech

109.5

99.1

1st in CUSA

47%

0

1

2.2

61st

Providence

109.8

99.4

5th in BE

44%

4

0

3.0

62nd

George Washington

108.7

98.5

4th in A10

57%

0

0

2.4

63rd

Oregon

113.9

103.2

7th in P12

25%

2

3

3.4

64th

Georgia

110.0

99.7

7th in SEC

72%

0

1

2.7

65th

UC Irvine

104.7

95.0

1st in BW

83%

1

0

2.1

66th

UNLV

107.4

97.5

4th in MWC

23%

5

0

2.7

67th

Marquette

107.7

98.1

6th in BE

39%

7

0

3.1

68th

Saint Mary's

112.4

102.5

3rd in WCC

35%

0

1

2.7

69th

Washington

110.6

101.0

8th in P12

62%

2

1

2.7

70th

Northern Iowa

114.2

104.4

2nd in MVC

88%

0

0

2.2

71st

West Virginia

112.4

102.7

8th in B12

62%

3

4

3.1

72nd

South Carolina

111.3

101.9

8th in SEC

76%

2

0

2.7

73rd

Penn St.

108.6

99.4

11th in B10

72%

0

1

2.6

74th

Richmond

108.0

99.1

5th in A10

73%

0

0

2.1

75th

Texas A&M

105.8

97.1

9th in SEC

64%

3

0

2.7

Georgia State (57th) should be one scary mid-major: The R.J. Hunter- and Ryan Harrow-led Panthers are projected to run away with the Sun Belt -- and be a higher-quality team than major-conference neighbors Georgia (64th) or Georgia Tech (139th). Louisiana Tech looks like Conference USA's best team for the second straight year; the Bulldogs tied for the league's regular-season title in '13-14 but Tulsa earned its automatic bid to the NCAAs.

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

76th

Auburn

112.2

102.9

10th in SEC

47%

2

1

2.5

77th

Tennessee

109.1

100.2

11th in SEC

28%

3

2

2.4

78th

Rhode Island

107.6

98.9

6th in A10

79%

1

1

2.6

79th

Seton Hall

107.6

99.3

7th in BE

47%

2

1

2.7

80th

Green Bay

108.6

100.2

1st in Horz

74%

0

0

2.0

81st

Boise St.

112.4

103.8

5th in MWC

61%

0

2

2.4

82nd

Creighton

111.5

103.1

8th in BE

44%

1

2

2.6

83rd

Fresno St.

111.7

103.3

6th in MWC

69%

2

2

2.7

84th

Clemson

105.7

97.9

11th in ACC

71%

1

0

2.9

85th

Purdue

108.7

100.7

12th in B10

48%

4

0

2.9

86th

Illinois St.

106.4

98.6

3rd in MVC

65%

0

3

2.4

87th

Northwestern

101.1

94.0

13th in B10

69%

1

0

2.8

88th

Manhattan

103.8

96.8

1st in MAAC

61%

1

0

2.2

89th

Siena

104.8

98.0

2nd in MAAC

99%

0

0

2.0

90th

Arizona St.

111.8

104.7

9th in P12

41%

1

4

2.6

91st

Iona

114.7

107.3

3rd in MAAC

49%

0

1

2.1

92nd

Old Dominion

105.9

99.2

2nd in CUSA

84%

0

1

2.1

93rd

Temple

111.7

104.6

6th in Amer

67%

0

0

2.8

94th

New Mexico

104.4

97.9

7th in MWC

38%

0

3

2.6

95th

Missouri

107.4

100.7

12th in SEC

37%

6

1

2.9

96th

New Mexico St.

110.2

103.4

1st in WAC

54%

0

0

2.3

97th

Houston

110.2

103.5

7th in Amer

43%

4

3

2.4

98th

La Salle

106.7

100.2

7th in A10

50%

1

0

2.2

99th

UC Santa Barbara

111.4

104.7

2nd in BW

68%

0

0

2.1

100th

Murray St.

110.0

103.4

1st in OVC

80%

0

3

2.4

The MAAC projects to be one of the nation's most tightly contested leagues, as its three title contenders -- Manhattan (88th), Siena (89th) and Iona (91st) -- are separated by just four spots in the rankings. Former mid-major Creighton (82nd) could be in for a difficult second season in the Big East after going 14-4 in Year 1. The model projects the Bluejays to finish eighth, between Seton Hall (79th) and Butler (102nd).

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

101st

Stephen F. Austin

107.5

101.1

1st in Slnd

60%

0

1

2.0

102nd

Butler

106.0

99.7

9th in BE

62%

1

0

2.7

103rd

Cleveland St.

109.0

102.6

2nd in Horz

53%

0

0

2.3

104th

Princeton

105.8

99.6

2nd in Ivy

60%

0

0

2.1

105th

Toledo

115.3

108.7

1st in MAC

79%

0

0

2.2

106th

San Francisco

110.2

103.9

4th in WCC

67%

0

3

2.3

107th

UTEP

106.1

100.4

3rd in CUSA

75%

0

1

2.4

108th

Texas Tech

107.4

101.8

9th in B12

41%

0

2

2.5

109th

Yale

105.5

100.2

3rd in Ivy

78%

0

0

2.1

110th

St. Bonaventure

108.8

103.3

8th in A10

55%

0

2

2.1

111th

Columbia

108.5

103.0

4th in Ivy

86%

0

0

2.0

112th

Belmont

111.2

105.8

2nd in OVC

59%

0

0

2.2

113th

Western Kentucky

106.3

101.2

4th in CUSA

60%

0

2

2.3

114th

NC Central

108.9

103.7

1st in MEAC

38%

0

0

2.1

115th

Long Beach St.

108.1

103.0

3rd in BW

61%

1

0

2.4

116th

Boston College

112.5

107.3

12th in ACC

67%

0

0

2.5

117th

Vanderbilt

104.8

100.1

13th in SEC

42%

2

0

2.9

118th

Portland

109.4

104.6

5th in WCC

78%

0

0

2.1

119th

American

102.5

98.4

1st in Pat

81%

0

0

2.1

120th

George Mason

105.3

101.2

9th in A10

57%

2

1

2.5

121st

USC

107.5

103.4

10th in P12

37%

4

0

2.7

122nd

Ohio

107.0

102.9

2nd in MAC

46%

1

1

2.1

123rd

Wofford

105.6

101.8

1st in SC

89%

0

0

2.0

124th

Evansville

107.7

103.9

4th in MVC

96%

0

2

2.1

125th

TCU

103.4

99.9

10th in B12

82%

2

0

2.5

Projected Ivy League second, third- and fourth-place finishers Princeton (104th), Yale (109th) and Columbia (111th) are more than 70 spots behind likely champ Harvard in our rankings. The OVC title race should be more interesting, with Belmont (112th) within shouting distance of perennial contender Murray State (100th), which brings back 80 percent of its minutes from last season.

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

126th

Virginia Tech

103.5

99.9

13th in ACC

48%

2

1

2.3

127th

Florida Gulf Coast

103.0

99.4

1st in ASun

52%

1

0

2.3

128th

Akron

105.8

102.3

3rd in MAC

76%

0

0

2.2

129th

Saint Louis

98.9

95.7

10th in A10

29%

0

0

2.7

130th

Washington St.

106.8

103.4

11th in P12

66%

0

1

2.5

131st

Morehead St.

106.6

103.2

3rd in OVC

64%

0

2

2.2

132nd

Wake Forest

105.4

102.3

14th in ACC

52%

1

0

2.6

133rd

Davidson

110.1

107.0

11th in A10

58%

0

0

2.2

134th

San Diego

106.1

103.2

6th in WCC

86%

0

0

2.0

135th

Western Michigan

106.5

103.6

4th in MAC

84%

0

0

2.1

136th

Indiana St.

103.1

100.4

5th in MVC

45%

0

1

2.3

137th

Mississippi St.

104.8

102.1

14th in SEC

74%

0

2

2.9

138th

Duquesne

110.0

107.2

12th in A10

66%

0

1

2.2

139th

Georgia Tech

101.8

99.4

15th in ACC

41%

3

0

2.6

140th

Southern Illinois

105.0

102.5

6th in MVC

60%

0

1

2.3

141st

Missouri St.

108.1

105.7

7th in MVC

63%

0

1

2.3

142nd

Cal Poly

106.4

104.1

4th in BW

62%

0

0

2.0

143rd

Kent St.

105.7

103.5

5th in MAC

68%

0

1

2.1

144th

Denver

110.3

108.1

1st in Sum

76%

0

0

2.0

145th

Stony Brook

105.9

104.0

1st in AE

41%

0

0

2.1

146th

Hofstra

107.6

105.7

1st in CAA

43%

0

0

2.2

147th

Coastal Carolina

103.7

102.0

1st in BSth

83%

0

0

2.0

148th

Brown

101.6

100.0

5th in Ivy

76%

0

0

2.0

149th

Holy Cross

103.9

102.4

2nd in Pat

84%

0

0

2.0

150th

Boston University

104.8

103.3

3rd in Pat

37%

0

0

2.3

Dunk City (127th) is forecasted to return to the NCAA tournament after missing out in '13-14. With Mercer having moved to the Southern Conference, Florida Gulf Coast is a strong favorite in the Atlantic Sun title race; the league's second-best team, Lipscomb, doesn't appear until 219th in our rankings.

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

151st

Army

108.6

107.1

4th in Pat

80%

0

0

2.1

152nd

Valparaiso

104.3

102.9

3rd in Horz

42%

0

0

2.2

153rd

Louisiana Lafayette

107.1

105.7

2nd in SB

50%

0

1

2.1

154th

Santa Clara

106.7

105.5

7th in WCC

63%

0

0

2.1

155th

Eastern Kentucky

109.6

108.3

4th in OVC

40%

0

1

2.0

156th

Middle Tennessee

102.1

100.9

5th in CUSA

37%

0

2

2.2

157th

High Point

111.3

110.1

2nd in BSth

77%

0

0

2.1

158th

Quinnipiac

109.1

108.0

4th in MAAC

58%

0

1

2.1

159th

Rutgers

105.8

104.7

14th in B10

52%

2

1

2.9

160th

Buffalo

108.3

107.2

6th in MAC

51%

0

1

2.2

161st

Charlotte

102.9

102.0

6th in CUSA

59%

2

0

2.4

162nd

Vermont

105.2

104.3

2nd in AE

26%

0

0

2.1

163rd

Rider

103.9

103.1

5th in MAAC

59%

0

0

2.1

164th

Eastern Michigan

100.1

99.3

7th in MAC

43%

0

2

2.2

165th

Sam Houston St.

105.6

104.9

2nd in Slnd

65%

0

0

2.0

166th

Nevada

104.8

104.1

8th in MWC

46%

0

1

2.3

167th

Milwaukee

104.8

104.3

4th in Horz

58%

0

0

2.0

168th

UCF

108.8

108.3

8th in Amer

49%

0

1

2.5

169th

Dartmouth

105.5

105.1

6th in Ivy

85%

0

0

2.0

170th

East Carolina

110.7

110.3

9th in Amer

70%

0

1

2.3

171st

Hawaii

108.3

107.9

5th in BW

49%

0

2

2.3

172nd

Northeastern

104.0

103.8

2nd in CAA

71%

0

0

2.0

173rd

Saint Joseph's

103.5

103.4

13th in A10

40%

0

0

2.7

174th

Bucknell

101.2

101.1

5th in Pat

55%

0

0

2.1

175th

Oral Roberts

108.4

108.4

2nd in Sum

63%

0

0

2.1

Our projections suggest that Louisiana Lafayette shouldn't be ignored in its first year after losing do-it-all guard Elfrid Payton to the NBA draft lottery. The Ragin' Cajuns (153rd) bring back a talented enough cast, led by forward Shawn Long, to remain near the top of the Sun Belt -- but there's a large gap between them and likely champion Georgia State.

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

176th

South Dakota St.

105.0

104.9

3rd in Sum

42%

1

0

2.1

177th

Miami OH

102.2

102.2

8th in MAC

59%

0

1

2.1

178th

Southern Miss

103.0

103.2

7th in CUSA

26%

0

1

2.0

179th

Detroit

105.3

105.5

5th in Horz

69%

1

0

2.3

180th

IPFW

107.8

108.2

4th in Sum

59%

0

1

2.0

181st

Lehigh

102.7

103.2

6th in Pat

75%

0

0

2.0

182nd

DePaul

107.9

108.5

10th in BE

50%

1

4

2.8

183rd

Northern Arizona

103.4

104.0

1st in BSky

84%

0

1

2.1

184th

North Dakota St.

102.8

103.4

5th in Sum

42%

0

0

2.0

185th

Bowling Green

97.3

97.9

9th in MAC

81%

0

1

2.0

186th

Cal St. Northridge

107.8

108.4

6th in BW

68%

0

0

2.3

187th

Drexel

101.9

102.6

3rd in CAA

41%

0

0

2.1

188th

Cal St. Fullerton

104.8

105.5

7th in BW

54%

0

0

2.1

189th

William & Mary

110.0

110.7

4th in CAA

56%

0

0

2.1

190th

Lafayette

111.5

112.5

7th in Pat

99%

0

0

2.0

191st

Mercer

104.4

105.5

2nd in SC

29%

0

1

2.0

192nd

Charleston Southern

107.0

108.2

3rd in BSth

52%

0

0

2.0

193rd

College of Charleston

99.9

101.2

5th in CAA

56%

1

0

2.2

194th

Northwestern St.

106.3

107.9

3rd in Slnd

54%

0

0

2.0

195th

Arkansas Little Rock

103.6

105.3

3rd in SB

76%

0

0

2.0

196th

Nebraska Omaha

104.3

106.0

6th in Sum

47%

0

0

2.0

197th

Wright St.

98.0

99.6

6th in Horz

41%

0

1

2.1

198th

Hartford

104.0

106.0

3rd in AE

80%

0

0

2.0

199th

Pepperdine

105.5

107.5

8th in WCC

55%

0

0

2.1

200th

Radford

108.4

110.6

4th in BSth

95%

0

0

2.0

The outlook for DePaul (182nd) hasn't improved after finishing 3-15 in the Big East in '13-14. The Blue Demons are forecasted to finish 10th in the league once again, which would make coach Oliver Purnell 5-for-5 in last-place finishes over the past five years.

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

201st

Oakland

109.1

111.3

7th in Horz

55%

0

0

2.2

202nd

Albany

104.3

106.5

4th in AE

40%

0

1

2.1

203rd

Seattle

101.5

103.7

2nd in WAC

74%

0

0

2.2

204th

Robert Morris

101.3

103.5

1st in NEC

57%

0

0

2.1

205th

Northern Illinois

97.0

99.1

10th in MAC

74%

0

0

2.2

206th

Gardner Webb

102.2

104.5

5th in BSth

48%

0

0

2.0

207th

Fairfield

99.1

101.3

6th in MAAC

77%

1

0

2.0

208th

Loyola Marymount

103.2

105.7

9th in WCC

32%

0

0

2.2

209th

Drake

104.5

107.0

8th in MVC

57%

0

0

2.2

210th

Air Force

101.6

104.1

9th in MWC

73%

0

0

2.1

211th

East Tennessee St.

105.2

107.9

3rd in SC

67%

0

0

2.1

212th

South Dakota

104.3

107.0

7th in Sum

72%

0

1

2.0

213th

Winthrop

105.2

108.1

6th in BSth

55%

0

0

2.0

214th

Bradley

102.4

105.3

9th in MVC

49%

1

1

2.4

215th

Monmouth

100.9

103.8

7th in MAAC

82%

0

0

2.2

216th

Cal St. Bakersfield

102.3

105.4

3rd in WAC

38%

0

0

2.1

217th

Weber St.

103.1

106.2

2nd in BSky

50%

0

0

2.2

218th

Eastern Washington

106.7

110.0

3rd in BSky

84%

0

0

2.0

219th

Lipscomb

104.7

107.9

2nd in ASun

81%

0

0

2.0

220th

Loyola Chicago

104.3

107.6

10th in MVC

75%

0

0

2.0

221st

Youngstown St.

105.5

108.9

8th in Horz

46%

0

0

2.2

222nd

St. Francis NY

99.7

103.1

2nd in NEC

51%

0

0

2.0

223rd

Portland St.

107.5

111.2

4th in BSky

50%

0

1

2.1

224th

Central Michigan

111.4

115.2

11th in MAC

93%

0

0

2.0

225th

Saint Peter's

99.4

102.9

8th in MAAC

82%

0

1

2.0

Just how weak is the WAC projected to be this season? The gap between the likely champ, New Mexico State, and our projected second- and third-place finishers, Seattle (203rd) and Cal-State Bakersfield (216th), is more than 100 spots in the rankings.

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

226th

USC Upstate

101.6

105.3

3rd in ASun

54%

0

0

2.0

227th

UC Davis

107.0

110.9

8th in BW

68%

0

0

2.3

228th

Alabama St.

102.8

106.6

1st in SWAC

98%

0

0

2.0

229th

Utah St.

103.0

106.9

10th in MWC

13%

0

0

2.0

230th

SE Missouri St.

106.9

111.0

5th in OVC

65%

0

2

2.2

231st

Incarnate Word

103.6

107.5

4th in Slnd

68%

0

0

2.0

232nd

UAB

100.6

104.5

8th in CUSA

28%

1

1

2.3

233rd

Tulane

104.8

108.9

10th in Amer

86%

0

0

2.1

234th

Marshall

102.0

106.0

9th in CUSA

63%

0

2

2.2

235th

Mount St. Mary's

104.5

108.7

3rd in NEC

49%

0

0

2.1

236th

Pacific

101.6

105.8

10th in WCC

16%

0

0

2.1

237th

UT Arlington

102.7

106.9

4th in SB

44%

0

0

2.2

238th

Towson

105.3

109.8

6th in CAA

35%

0

0

2.2

239th

Colgate

105.4

110.0

8th in Pat

71%

0

0

2.0

240th

Penn

100.4

104.8

7th in Ivy

38%

0

0

2.2

241st

Idaho

106.8

111.6

5th in BSky

61%

0

0

2.0

242nd

Florida Atlantic

101.4

106.1

10th in CUSA

77%

0

0

2.2

243rd

UNC Wilmington

100.5

105.3

7th in CAA

52%

0

1

2.1

244th

Hampton

96.7

101.5

2nd in MEAC

76%

0

0

2.0

245th

Grand Canyon

104.5

109.7

4th in WAC

37%

0

1

2.3

246th

Sacramento St.

105.9

111.2

6th in BSky

86%

0

0

2.1

247th

Navy

99.5

104.5

9th in Pat

90%

0

0

2.0

248th

San Jose St.

98.5

103.5

11th in MWC

73%

0

0

2.2

249th

South Florida

100.8

105.9

11th in Amer

29%

0

2

2.6

250th

Central Connecticut

103.6

108.9

4th in NEC

87%

0

0

2.0

The SWAC's Alabama State (228th) is the lowest-ranked of our projected conference champions. The Hornets bring back 98 percent of their minutes from a 19-13 team last season, and are well-positioned to make their third NCAA tournament trip under coach Lewis Jackson.

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

251st

Montana

105.7

111.1

7th in BSky

59%

0

0

2.1

252nd

Austin Peay

103.4

108.7

6th in OVC

56%

0

0

2.0

253rd

Fordham

103.8

109.2

14th in A10

62%

0

0

2.2

254th

James Madison

100.4

105.8

8th in CAA

57%

0

0

2.0

255th

Elon

104.3

110.1

9th in CAA

44%

0

0

2.1

256th

Arkansas St.

99.6

105.1

5th in SB

18%

0

1

2.1

257th

Oregon St.

102.0

107.9

12th in P12

31%

0

1

2.6

258th

NJIT

101.5

107.5

Ind.

88%

0

0

2.0

259th

UNC Asheville

104.3

110.5

7th in BSth

70%

0

0

2.0

260th

Eastern Illinois

102.6

108.9

7th in OVC

66%

0

0

2.1

261st

Northern Colorado

105.7

112.3

8th in BSky

60%

0

1

2.1

262nd

Georgia Southern

100.5

106.8

6th in SB

49%

0

0

2.1

263rd

Delaware

102.8

109.3

10th in CAA

39%

0

0

2.0

264th

Bryant

102.8

109.3

5th in NEC

60%

0

0

2.0

265th

Texas A&M CC

103.6

110.2

5th in Slnd

56%

0

0

2.0

266th

North Florida

104.0

110.7

4th in ASun

73%

0

0

2.1

267th

Utah Valley

102.3

108.9

5th in WAC

51%

0

0

2.1

268th

Jacksonville St.

101.6

108.6

8th in OVC

63%

0

0

2.0

269th

UTSA

103.7

110.9

11th in CUSA

41%

0

0

2.1

270th

Western Illinois

95.7

102.3

8th in Sum

62%

0

1

2.0

271st

Canisius

101.8

108.9

9th in MAAC

32%

0

0

2.0

272nd

Tennessee Tech

101.8

109.0

9th in OVC

52%

0

2

2.2

273rd

Texas St.

97.3

104.2

7th in SB

41%

0

0

2.0

274th

Northern Kentucky

105.7

113.3

5th in ASun

93%

0

0

2.0

275th

St. Francis PA

98.7

105.9

6th in NEC

97%

0

0

2.0

Oregon State (257th) projects to be the worst major-conference team in the country. The Beavers, which will be playing under first-year coach Wayne Tinkle, only bring back 31 percent of their minutes from last season, and lack a single player who ranked in the top 100 of the RSCI out of high school.

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

276th

Southern

97.2

104.4

2nd in SWAC

40%

0

0

2.0

277th

Montana St.

99.2

106.6

9th in BSky

53%

0

0

2.0

278th

UC Riverside

96.1

103.5

9th in BW

63%

0

1

2.0

279th

Illinois Chicago

99.1

106.9

9th in Horz

47%

0

0

2.1

280th

Chattanooga

101.5

109.5

4th in SC

67%

0

0

2.0

281st

North Dakota

100.4

108.4

10th in BSky

42%

0

1

2.1

282nd

UNC Greensboro

100.1

108.2

5th in SC

60%

0

0

2.0

283rd

Texas Southern

103.2

111.8

3rd in SWAC

31%

0

1

2.1

284th

Delaware St.

103.1

111.8

3rd in MEAC

63%

0

0

2.0

285th

North Texas

96.5

104.7

12th in CUSA

48%

1

1

2.1

286th

Rice

97.7

106.0

13th in CUSA

53%

0

0

2.1

287th

SIU Edwardsville

101.8

110.5

10th in OVC

68%

0

0

2.0

288th

FIU

99.2

107.9

14th in CUSA

46%

0

0

2.2

289th

Tennessee Martin

106.4

115.9

11th in OVC

48%

1

1

2.2

290th

Troy

99.7

108.5

8th in SB

20%

0

2

2.0

291st

Wagner

95.9

104.5

7th in NEC

25%

0

0

2.2

292nd

Coppin St.

101.6

110.8

4th in MEAC

69%

0

0

2.0

293rd

VMI

103.8

113.5

6th in SC

65%

0

0

2.0

294th

Texas Pan American

95.4

104.4

6th in WAC

32%

0

0

2.1

295th

South Alabama

99.6

109.1

9th in SB

42%

0

0

2.0

296th

UMKC

97.4

106.8

7th in WAC

36%

0

0

2.0

297th

Western Carolina

99.0

108.6

7th in SC

45%

0

0

2.0

298th

Marist

96.6

106.0

10th in MAAC

63%

0

0

2.0

299th

SE Louisiana

100.4

110.2

6th in Slnd

50%

0

0

2.0

300th

Binghamton

97.8

107.9

5th in AE

75%

0

0

2.1

FIU (288th), which had its beach-themed court damaged by a CrossFit-like competition during the offseason, could have a bummer of a '14-15 as well: It's projected to finish dead last in Conference USA, although North Texas (285th) and Rice (286th) should make it a decent competition for the cellar.

rank

team

proj.
off.
EFF.

proj. def.
EFF.

conf. rank

ret. min%

top 100

juco top 100

avg.
star
rating

301st

Cornell

103.2

114.1

8th in Ivy

56%

0

0

2.0

302nd

Kennesaw St.

98.3

108.8

6th in ASun

80%

0

1

2.3

303rd

Louisiana Monroe

98.5

109.4

10th in SB

57%

0

1

2.0

304th

New Hampshire

95.0

105.6

6th in AE

59%

0

0

2.0

305th

Appalachian St.

97.1

108.2

11th in SB

67%

0

0

2.1

306th

Howard

92.9

103.5

5th in MEAC

99%

0

0

2.0

307th

Sacred Heart

97.4

108.8

8th in NEC

66%

0

0

2.0

308th

McNeese St.

99.0

110.6

7th in Slnd

65%

0

0

2.0

309th

Nicholls St.

98.2

109.8

8th in Slnd

59%

0

0

2.0

310th

Liberty

99.0

110.9

8th in BSth

38%

1

0

2.1

311th

Loyola MD

95.7

107.3

10th in Pat

73%

0

0

2.0

312th

Idaho St.

98.9

110.9

11th in BSky

47%

0

0

2.0

313th

Ball St.

97.1

109.2

12th in MAC

33%

0

0

2.2

314th

Bethune Cookman

99.8

113.1

6th in MEAC

73%

0

0

2.0

315th

Arkansas Pine Bluff

92.9

105.3

4th in SWAC

71%

0

0

2.0

316th

Niagara

96.0

109.1

11th in MAAC

40%

0

0

2.0

317th

Savannah St.

88.2

100.8

7th in MEAC

43%

0

0

2.0

318th

Alcorn St.

93.9

108.1

5th in SWAC

48%

0

0

2.1

319th

IUPUI