SEC preview: Malik Monk should lead Kentucky to another league title

Malik Monk—our projected freshman and player of the year in the SEC—should lead Kentucky comfortably to a conference crown this season.

Sports Illustrated’s 2016–17 preview is guided by data from our College Basketball Projection System, a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs. We project teams on a player-by-player, lineup-based level and then simulate the season 10,000 times to generate our 1–351 national rankings and conference forecasts.

These are the model’s projections for the SEC, including individual awards, the teams’ order of finish and (advanced and raw) stats for the top seven players in each school’s rotation.

Find more about how our projection system works here, and read all of our 2016–17 preview content here.

The Big Picture

No surprise here at the top: Kentucky, led by an outstanding stable of freshman prospects, is our projected No. 1 team. And there’s a familiar face in the second spot too, as Florida makes its return to the SEC’s elite in Year 2 of the Mike White era. As with previous years of SEC basketball, there may be only four NCAA tournament qualifiers from a league of 14 teams. SEC basketball fever isn’t quite here yet, but there’s hope for the future.

Josh Hart, Grayson Allen lead SI's player of the year projections

Player of the Year: Malik Monk, Kentucky

The Wildcats’ third-highest-rated recruit (and the nation’s ninth), according to the Ratings Services Consensus Index, projects as the SEC’s best player overall thanks in part to an expected sizable role in Kentucky’s offense. Some of the explosive backcourt playmaker’s toughest competition for the award will come from a pair of his classmates in Lexington, but as the central offensive piece on the league’s best team—and a top-flight national title contender—Monk gets the nod for the hardware.

Newcomer of the Year: Monk, Kentucky

So . . . how about that Malik Monk? Not only does he project as the conference’s best player—he’s also new, setting him up for a second superlative. Aside from John Calipari’s other superfrosh, Bam Adebayo and De’Aaron Fox, Monk’s challengers for this title will likely be the league’s newly eligible transfers, chiefly projected Alabama leading scorer Nick King (a forward who transferred from Memphis) or Ole Miss guards Deandre Burnett (Miami) and Cullen Neal (New Mexico), who project as the Rebels’ top two scorers.

All-Conference Team & Sixth Man

PG: J.J. Frazier, Georgia
SG: Malik Monk, Kentucky
PF: Bam Adebayo, Kentucky
PF: Tyler Davis, Texas A&M
PF: Moses Kingsley, Arkansas
6th man: PG: De'Aaron Fox, Kentucky

Washington's Markelle Fultz, Duke's Jayson Tatum lead top projected freshmen scorers

Projected Order of Finish

(Projected conference record in parentheses. The tiebreaker for teams with identical records is their standing in SI’s 1–351 national rankings, which will be revealed in early November.)

Conference Rank	Team	Proj. Conf. Record	’15-16 Conf. Record
1	Kentucky	16–2	13–5
2	Florida	11–7	9–9
3	Texas A&M	11–7	13–5
4	Vanderbilt	10–8	11–7
5	Georgia	9–9	10–8
6	Arkansas	9–9	9–9
7	Ole Miss	9–9	10–8
8	Mississippi State	9–9	7–11
9	South Carolina	8–10	11–7
10	Auburn	8–10	5–13
11	Alabama	8–10	8–10
12	Tennessee	7–11	6–12
13	LSU	7–11	11–7
14	Missouri	4–14	3–15

The Skinny on Each Team

1. Kentucky (16–2)

As usual, when it comes to pedigree, few can compare to Kentucky’s stable of studs. Among the Wildcats’ 11 scholarship players, only three were not top-60 RSCI recruits. One of those was senior forward Derek Willis, a three-star prospect who projects to repeat as Kentucky’s most efficient player this season in his limited offensive role. After ranking as the nation’s best in 2014–15, the Wildcats’ defense sagged to 32nd in efficiency last season. It projects to return to the top five this season, bringing the team’s title hopes with it.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Malik Monk	Fr	SG	16.0	2.1	2.5	117.1	25%	77%
De'Aaron Fox	Fr	PG	12.9	1.7	3.9	117.6	21%	77%
Bam Adebayo	Fr	C	12.5	6.9	0.8	116.3	24%	63%
Derek Willis	Sr	PF	11.1	6.3	0.7	125.6	16%	68%
Isaiah Briscoe	So	PG	10.9	5.1	3.3	109.1	20%	80%
Wenyen Gabriel	Fr	PF	7.2	4.7	0.6	110.3	20%	45%
Isaac Humphries	So	C	5.0	5.4	0.4	109.9	15%	50%

2. Florida (11–7)

Mike White’s second season in Gainesville should see the Gators return to the SEC”s top half—and the NCAA tournament—despite losing leading scorer Dorian Finney-Smith to graduation. Part of that slack will be picked up by graduate transfer Canyon Barry (son of Hall of Famer Rick) and increased usage for forward Devin Robinson, the team’s most efficient option last season.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Kevaughn Allen	So	SG	12.7	3.2	1.8	116.1	20%	72%
John Egbunu	Jr	C	11.6	6.8	0.6	112.5	22%	63%
Devin Robinson	Jr	SF	10.5	5.5	0.8	121.7	19%	60%
Canyon Barry	Sr	SG	10.0	3.4	1.0	104.7	23%	52%
Kasey Hill	Sr	PG	9.2	2.2	3.3	101.6	24%	56%
Justin Leon	Sr	PF	8.2	5.0	0.6	115.1	17%	55%
Chris Chiozza	Jr	PG	7.6	2.6	3.8	108.9	20%	59%

3. Texas A&M (11–7)

Conference player of the year candidate Tyler Davis will get help from fellow sophomores Admon Gilder and D.J. Hogg, top-100 recruits who project as double-digit scorers in their first season as starters. More concerning may be replacing the now-graduated Anthony Collins, Alex Caruso and Danuel House from a top-10 defense.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Tyler Davis	So	C	14.3	7.5	1.0	114.4	24%	70%
Admon Gilder	So	PG	13.1	3.9	3.1	113.1	19%	83%
D.J. Hogg	So	SF/PF	11.6	5.1	1.6	109.7	20%	73%
Tonny Trocha-Morelos	Jr	C	10.9	6.5	1.3	106.1	21%	68%
Eric Vila	Fr	SF	7.6	4.9	0.9	95.8	19%	58%
J.C. Hampton	Sr	PG/SG	6.1	1.6	1.6	99.8	21%	40%
Robert Williams	Fr	PF	4.8	3.0	0.4	105.1	17%	38%

4. Vanderbilt (10–8)

Despite the departure of two NBA first-rounders, new coach Bryce Drew could return the Commodores to the NCAA tourney fringe if smooth-shooting Matthew Fisher-Davis and Jeff Roberson take well to their increased roles. A key X-factor will be the health of 7-footer Luke Kornet after off-season foot surgery.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Matthew Fisher-Davis	Jr	SF	12.7	4.3	1.6	120.4	17%	78%
Jeff Roberson	Jr	SF	12.3	6.5	1.7	122.8	19%	77%
Riley LaChance	Jr	CG	12.1	3.8	3.4	108.1	21%	84%
Luke Kornet	Sr	PF	10.0	6.5	1.5	109.5	22%	65%
Nolan Cressler	Sr	SG	8.1	3.1	1.1	104.0	24%	44%
Camron Justice	So	SG	7.4	2.7	0.9	103.9	19%	47%
Joe Toye	So	SF	6.6	3.2	0.7	104.0	21%	40%

5. Georgia (9–9)

The Bulldogs have a young trio of rim protectors in junior Yante Maten (7.0% block percentage last season) and sophomores Derek Ogbeide (6.1%) and Mike Edwards (3.5%), who helped them rank seventh nationally in the category last season. Undersized senior guard JJ Frazier is a projected All-SEC first-teamer, but Georgia lacks the complementary offense to make a tourney return.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
J.J. Frazier	Sr	PG	16.6	3.9	4.3	117.0	25%	82%
Yante Maten	Jr	PF/C	16.2	8.0	0.9	106.0	27%	76%
Tyree Crump	Fr	SG	9.7	3.2	1.7	101.4	19%	69%
Derek Ogbeide	So	PF	6.1	6.1	0.7	96.4	20%	50%
Jordan Harris	Fr	SG	5.7	1.1	0.9	100.3	18%	43%
Juwan Parker	Jr	SG	5.2	2.6	1.0	100.3	18%	43%
Mike Edwards	So	PF	3.5	3.6	0.4	91.7	15%	41%

6. Arkansas (9–9)

A fleet of transfers—forward Dustin Thomas from Colorado and ex-jucos Jaylen Barford, Daryl Macon, and Arlando Cook—will fill out the Razorbacks’ rotation, but none project as true difference-makers. Arkansas will also have to replace the marksmanship of Anthlon Bell, who shot 44.1% from three last year on 6.3 attempts per game.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Dusty Hannahs	Sr	SG	16.5	2.5	1.3	118.3	24%	68%
Moses Kingsley	Sr	PF	16.4	8.8	1.2	115.2	26%	74%
Anton Beard	Jr	PG	8.9	2.3	2.1	108.7	19%	60%
Jaylen Barford	Jr	PG	7.6	3.0	2.2	103.8	19%	56%
Daryl Macon	Jr	SG	7.6	2.8	1.2	103.8	19%	52%
Dustin Thomas	Jr	PF	6.9	3.5	0.7	105.8	20%	48%
Arlando Cook	Jr	PF	6.6	4.2	0.5	103.8	19%	45%

7. Ole Miss (9–9)

Burnett and Neal’s arrivals from Miami and New Mexico, respectively, give the Rebels a pair of gunners to replace Stefan Moody, but neither projects as Moody’s heir in terms of efficiency. Coach Andy Kennedy has also said he is expecting an increased shooting range from forward Sebastian Saiz, a standout rebounder and double-double threat who played part of last season with a detached retina.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Deandre Burnett	Jr	SG	13.5	3.5	1.6	104.4	23%	72%
Cullen Neal	Sr	PG	11.7	3.9	3.7	98.9	23%	78%
Sebastian Saiz	Sr	C	11.5	7.9	0.7	114.8	21%	68%
Rasheed Brooks	Sr	SG	9.6	3.7	1.8	105.0	18%	71%
Marcanvis Hymon	Jr	SF	8.6	6.0	0.9	113.1	19%	59%
Justas Furmanavicius	Jr	SF	7.6	4.4	0.9	101.5	20%	52%
Nate Morris	Fr	PF	4.5	3.1	0.4	99.4	18%	34%

Rob Foldy/Getty

8. Mississippi State (9–9)

Senior point guard I.J. Ready is the only upperclassman on the Bulldogs’ roster, which features six freshmen. A projected modest improvement in coach Ben Howland’s second season depends on the readiness of those half-dozen recruits, who all rank between Nos. 48 and 100 in the RSCI. Hometown hero Tyson Carter, who starred on the team’s preseason tour of Italy, projects to make the biggest immediate impact.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Quinndary Weatherspoon	So	SG	13.5	4.7	1.7	111.7	23%	73%
Tyson Carter	Fr	PG	9.7	4.1	3.3	102.6	19%	73%
I.J. Ready	Sr	PG	9.6	2.2	4.1	108.9	20%	73%
Mario Kegler	Fr	SF	8.7	4.2	1.2	105.2	20%	56%
Schnider Herard	Fr	C	7.4	4.4	0.7	103.1	19%	51%
Abdul Ado	Fr	C	6.2	3.9	0.5	102.6	19%	43%
Xavian Stapleton	So	SG	6.1	2.1	0.7	104.8	21%	35%

9. South Carolina (8–10)

After last season’s undefeated run into January, SI’s system forecasts a step back for the Gamecocks. Their highest share of offense is projected to go to 6' 6" sophomore wing P.J. Dozier, who posted an offensive rating of just 78.9 last season in a high-volume, medium-minutes role. Even a large bump in efficiency could leave Dozier lacking.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Sindarius Thornwell	Sr	PG/SG	14.3	5.3	3.7	111.3	22%	84%
Duane Notice	Sr	SG	12.2	2.9	3.0	117.7	19%	76%
P.J. Dozier	So	SG	10.3	4.2	2.5	95.8	25%	65%
Chris Silva	So	PF	10.2	7.3	0.6	107.5	22%	62%
Ran Tut	Jr	PF	7.0	4.8	0.5	102.6	19%	48%
Sedee Keita	Fr	PF	6.5	4.6	0.5	103.8	18%	48%
Hassani Gravett	So	PG	4.5	1.7	1.3	100.4	19%	34%

10. Auburn (8–10)

Last season’s dismal finish—12 losses in 14 games—does not portend well for the Tigers, but there are reasons for longer-term hope. Forward Danjel Purifoy (now eligible after redshirting last year due to ACT issues) and top-20 guard Mustapha Heron are promising freshmen who will be afforded ample court time to grow.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Bryce Brown	So	SG	10.5	2.4	1.0	105.9	20%	60%
Mustapha Heron	Fr	SG	9.8	3.6	1.5	109.3	22%	55%
Danjel Purifoy	Fr	SF	8.5	4.4	1.1	102.4	19%	58%
Ronnie Johnson	Sr	PG	8.5	2.2	2.5	105.9	23%	50%
T.J. Dunans	Sr	SG	8.1	2.3	2.0	100.1	23%	50%
T.J. Lang	Jr	SG	7.9	3.0	0.9	116.5	14%	62%
Horace Spencer	So	PF	7.8	6.0	0.7	98.1	22%	58%

11. Alabama (8–10)

Year 2 of the Avery Johnson administration will feature heavy dosages of Nick King, a former top-50 recruit who averaged 7.2 points and 4.8 rebounds at Memphis in 2014–15. One place Johnson’s team could most readily improve its efficiency is the line: the Tide shot a paltry 64.3% on free throws last season.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Nick King	Jr	SF	10.6	7.2	1.1	105.4	24%	64%
Shannon Hale	Sr	PF	9.2	2.6	0.8	98.0	27%	48%
Dazon Ingram	So	PG	9.0	5.5	3.7	97.8	21%	76%
Riley Norris	Jr	SF	8.5	5.2	0.9	106.1	17%	70%
Corban Collins	Sr	PG	8.2	2.9	2.5	105.3	19%	60%
Ar'mond Davis	Jr	SG	6.2	2.9	1.1	98.6	20%	45%
Jimmie Taylor	Sr	PF	4.9	3.7	0.4	101.3	18%	42%

12. Tennessee (7–11)

Eight new players will suit up in Knoxville this season, but the results project to be similar to last season, with the Volunteers near the SEC’s bottom. To avoid that, Rick Barnes will have to find some outside scoring from the newbies: Shembari Phillips is the only returnee to shoot better than 30.3% from outside.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Detrick Mostella	Jr	SG	12.7	3.0	1.6	101.3	24%	68%
Robert Hubbs III	Sr	SG	12.1	4.2	1.3	113.7	21%	70%
Admiral Schofield	So	SF	11.6	5.9	1.4	111.8	20%	70%
Lamonte Turner	Fr	PG	9.2	1.8	3.5	103.5	18%	72%
Lew Evans	Sr	PF	8.5	5.2	0.9	102.0	23%	54%
Shembari Phillips	So	SG	7.3	2.5	1.3	99.5	20%	50%
Kwe Parker	Fr	SG	5.6	1.9	0.9	101.6	19%	40%

13. LSU (7–11)

If Tigers fans thought their year with Ben Simmons was a disappointment, the post-Simmons hangover could be even harder to stomach. LSU projects to have the SEC’s third-worst defense, which is actually only one spot lower than a year ago.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Antonio Blakeney	So	SG	14.8	3.9	1.4	115.4	21%	76%
Craig Victor II	Jr	PF	12.6	6.2	0.9	105.5	24%	67%
Brandon Sampson	So	SG	9.9	3.3	1.8	100.7	20%	67%
Branden Jenkins	So	SG	8.9	3.5	2.5	96.7	21%	63%
Duop Reath	So	PF	7.4	4.9	0.5	96.7	21%	48%
Jalyn Patterson	Jr	PG	6.3	1.8	1.8	110.6	14%	57%
Aaron Epps	Jr	PF	5.1	2.9	0.4	102.9	19%	33%

14. Missouri (4–14)

A quartet of sophomores (one of which, Jordan Geist, is new as a juco transfer) will lead Kim Anderson’s rebuild and try to win their first Division I game away from Mizzou Arena. They’ll get a boost in December when 6' 7" forward Jordan Barnett, a transfer from Texas, becomes eligible.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Kevin Puryear	So	PF	13.6	6.1	0.7	101.3	24%	74%
K.J. Walton	So	SG	11.5	3.9	1.9	105.8	23%	71%
Terrence Phillips	So	PG	10.5	4.1	4.0	97.2	22%	80%
Jordan Geist	So	PG/SG	8.0	2.8	2.3	95.1	21%	60%
Jordan Barnett	Jr	SF	7.9	4.9	1.1	96.0	20%	34%
Mitchell Smith	Fr	PF	5.6	3.8	0.4	99.5	15%	51%
Cullen VanLeer	So	SG	5.5	1.9	1.0	97.2	17%	48%