Expert Picks, Predictions and Players to Watch for the Women’s Final Four

Our writers and editors go through their favorite moments of the tournament so far, who could be a breakout star and who’s going to win it all this weekend in Phoenix.

Texas and UCLA played earlier this season, with the Longhorns handing the Bruins their only loss on the season. | Ian Maule/Getty Images

The final weekend of the women’s NCAA tournament is almost upon us and there is a bit of déjà vu with this year’s Final Four. UConn, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina were all in last year’s Final Four, but they weren’t all No. 1 seeds like they are this time around. 

Will the chalk continue and give us a win from the No. 1 overall seed? Or is there another upset or two in the books? Our writers and editors make their picks and a few other predictions for this weekend's action in Phoenix. 

What’s been your favorite moment of the tournament so far?

Emma Baccellieri: Kymora Johnson’s floater to send No. 10 Virginia to double overtime against No. 2 Iowa. A great shot on its own—but add it to the fact that she also hit the three to send this one to the first overtime, and was the only player to be on the court for all 50 minutes of this program-swinging win for UVA, and was the hometown kid whose recruitment helped set everything in motion here in the first place, and it’s all the better.

Clare Brennan: Madison Booker’s 40-point outburst against Oregon. Not only did this mark a new career high for Booker, but it also set the program’s single-game NCAA tournament scoring record. Booker is an elite playmaker, an efficient shooter, and a generational talent, and she has seized her time to shine on the biggest stage. The Longhorns star embodies the fun of March: top players meeting the moment and garnering national attention. 

Dan Falkenheim: Amaya Battle’s game-winning shot to send Minnesota to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005. That Ole Miss–Minnesota contest had pretty much everything one could hope for from a March Madness thriller. A mythic fan (Blanket Lady) spurring the hometown crowd on. A local roster that stuck together. A fourth-quarter comeback that ended in the most dramatic way possible. Even though the Golden Gophers lost in the following round, Battle’s shot is what the Big Dance is all about.

AMAYA BATTLE WITH THE GAME-WINNER FOR THE GOPHERS ♨️

Minnesota advances to its first Sweet 16 since 2005! 😱 pic.twitter.com/t1R9t9OvZo

— ESPN (@espn) March 22, 2026

Michael Rosenberg: Hannah Hidalgo’s winning assist against Vanderbilt in the Sweet 16. It wasn’t as dramatic as the Duke and Minnesota game-winners, but it was such a brilliant play by Hidalgo: Leaping to grab a pass, then dribbling to draw a defender before making the wrap-around bounce pass to Cassandre Prosper for a layup. It was a great illustration of Hidalgo’s brilliant basketball mind.

Who is a breakout player to watch? 

Baccellieri: Madina Okot, South Carolina. Perhaps this is stretching the definition of “breakout player”—Okot has started all season for the Gamecocks and has established herself as an automatic double-double. But for those who haven’t been paying close attention this year, Okot may still be an unfamiliar name, and she’s absolutely one worth knowing. The 21-year-old Kenyan started her college basketball career last season at Mississippi State. Now in her first year at South Carolina, she’s been a key piece of elevating this roster, with mobility and versatility that belie her 6'6" frame.  

Brennan: Blanca Quiñonez, UConn. The freshman standout was the Huskies’ x-factor against Notre Dame, recording 20 points and eight rebounds off the bench. No team can match UConn’s depth, with Quiñonez headlining Geno Auriemma’s impressive cavalry of reserves. At 6'2", Quiñonez is physical, athletic and can drive to the basket, providing UConn with a spark when it needs it most.

Falkenheim: Allie Ziebell, UConn. The tournament’s critical moments are often decided by players not typically counted on. Ziebell fits that bill. A former five-star recruit, Ziebell went nuclear against Xavier and shot 10-for-14 from three in a blowout win. All it will take is a few threes in quick succession to remind people that the Huskies have depth at guard even after Azzi Fudd graduates.

Rosenberg: Agot Makeer, South Carolina. Makeer, a former McDonald’s All-American, is averaging 14.8 points per game in the NCAA tournament, and she is doing it efficiently: Since the start of the SEC tournament, Makeer has made 55% of her shots. The UConn–South Carolina semifinal could come down to whether Makeer or Huskies freshman Quiñonez goes off. 

THIS IS AN AGOT MAKEER STAN ACCOUNT!! CAREER-HIGH 18 POINTS FOR THE ROOKIE 💥

📺 ESPN | https://t.co/kgok266uMN pic.twitter.com/0haVix47MO

— South Carolina Women's Basketball (@GamecockWBB) March 31, 2026

Make a bold prediction! 

Baccellieri: I would love to say that we get a few minutes (and maybe even a three-pointer?) from Texas walk-on and fan favorite Sarah Graves. But that may be a bit too bold. So I’ll go elsewhere on the Longhorns bench and say that we see a huge Final Four performance from Texas center Kyla Oldacre. She’ll have an incredibly tricky job going up in the paint against Lauren Betts. But I think her physicality will set her up well to limit (some of) the damage that Betts can do inside for UCLA. 

Brennan: Dawn Staley will wear a matching garnet Louis Vuitton set for the Final Four. She’s already donned some memorable wears this tournament, including a Gucci jacket for the Sweet Sixteen and a Balenciaga shirt and jacket in the second round. Staley wore a Louis Vuitton jacket and logo sneakers when the Gamecocks cut down the nets in 2024, so perhaps LV is a good luck charm for the coach. 

Falkenheim: Chris Dailey dances on the court after the Huskies win the national title. There has been a lot of talk of Geno growing soft and grandfatherly with age, but don’t forget that CD is a huge part of the Huskies’ culture, too. We already know that Dailey and Ashlynn Shade taught the team how to line dance over spring break. Is it that out there to think that she may have promised to perform a jig of her own if UConn wins it all?

Rosenberg: Texas will beat UCLA by double digits. The Bruins have been the shakiest of the Final Four teams, and the Longhorns showed in their demolition of Michigan that their physical defense can destroy a team’s will. The Bruins will have to be at their absolute toughest, mentally and physically, to beat Texas—and they will have to make smart strategic in-game adjustments to keep up. I think Texas beats UCLA steadily, and then thoroughly.

So, who’s winning this thing? 

Baccellieri: UConn over Texas. Let’s note this Huskies team does have some flaws: They can get beat on both the glass and the three-point line. They miss the steady veteran guard play of Paige Bueckers and Kaitlyn Chen. They are undefeated, yes, but they are not unbeatable. Yet those flaws are relatively small in the scheme of things. There are so many strengths here—and, notably, the one big, unguardable strength of Sarah Strong—that I can’t pick against them here.

Brennan: UConn over UCLA. The Bruins will have their work cut out for them against Texas, but revenge is a compelling motivating factor. UCLA’s only loss this season came against the Longhorns in November, and Betts & Co. will be out for redemption in the Final Four. Should the Bruins get past Texas, though, UConn will be too formidable an opponent to overcome (not just for UCLA but for any team in the tournament). The Huskies simply have too much talent and depth. 

Falkenheim: UConn over UCLA. The Bruins are more capable than they’ve shown on the court so far this March, and that’s likely why they are a 1.5-point underdog. (To Clare’s point, UCLA had a season-high 20 turnovers and surrendered its second-most points on the season in its loss to Texas. The Bruins know what they need to fix.) With all that being said … I am revising my previous take. The Huskies have looked like the most dominant team in the country, and at least one more blow-up game from Fudd is on the horizon. The national championship would be the perfect spot for that, and I don’t know if that’s something UCLA can withstand.

Rosenberg: UConn over Texas. The only champion that would surprise me at this point is UCLA. I think the Bruins might have the best roster, but they just don’t look like a team that can beat Texas and then UConn or South Carolina in a three-day span, at least to me. If Ta’Niya Latson hits threes and Makeer outplays Quiñonez, South Carolina can beat UConn. Texas can do it, too. But the least surprising result this year, and most years in this century, would be a UConn championship.

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