How USC Collapsed From 18-6 to Missing the NCAA Tournament in a Month

No one in men’s college basketball fell harder than the Trojans.

Eric Musselman and USC will seemingly stay home from the NCAA tournament this spring after a nightmare end to 2026. | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

If you’re a USC men’s basketball fan, you’d be forgiven for not knowing what’s hit you over the last month.

On the morning of Feb. 11, the Trojans carried a record of 18-6. They’d won three straight games—all close contests against teams mediocre or worse (Rutgers, Indiana and Penn State), but all victories nonetheless. March looked like a strong possibility, with the all-seeing Bracket Matrix predicting USC would be a No. 10 seed.

Poof! The Trojans’ bid for their first tournament trip since 2023 has gone up in smoke. USC lost eight games in a row to end its season, culminating with a loss to Washington in the second round of the Big Ten tournament Wednesday.

Here, in timeline form, is a forensic accounting of how things went so sideways for coach Eric Musselman & Co.

Jacob Cofie and USC couldn’t outpoint Devin Royal and Ohio State in a battle of the bubble. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Feb. 11: First cracks show at Ohio State

With guard and leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara missing his second straight game due to a knee injury, the Trojans fell 89–82 in a contest that exposed their biggest weakness: defense. Only Penn State—the worst team in the conference—allowed more points per game in the Big Ten than USC’s 77.8. The Buckeyes shot 50% from the field, scored 49 points in the second half, and nailed 96% of their free throws against the Trojans’ 72.7% in a highly physical contest. For Ohio State, the win took on future significance as it helped legitimize the Buckeyes’ own bubble credibility.

Feb. 21: A tipping point vs. Oregon

The Ducks dropped by Exposition Park in a dire state, having lost 11 of their last 12 games. For USC (a loser to No. 10 Illinois three days prior), the headline was the return of Baker-Mazara, and his 21-point output helped the Trojans lead 70–64 with 1:10 to play. Catastrophically for its tournament hopes, USC did not score again. With 10 seconds left, Oregon center Nathan Bittle drained two free throws to put his team up 71–70, and freshman Trojans guard Alijah Arenas turned the ball over on his team’s final possession.

Chad Baker-Mazara was the nerve center of USC in 2026—until he suddenly wasn’t. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Feb. 28: The wrong kind of headlines vs. Nebraska

After losing at crosstown rival UCLA, USC faced a tall task against the No. 12 Cornhuskers—and wound up getting more than it bargained for. The Trojans trailed Nebraska just 41–38 early in the second half when Baker-Mazara fell hard after a block. He asked out of the game, which USC went on to lose 82–69. The result: Baker-Mazara’s departure from the program, and an attendant firestorm that put a national spotlight on the Trojans’ losing streak.

March 4 and 11: Washington finishes USC off

If the Trojans had any last designs on surging into the NCAA tournament—well, let’s just say Washington extinguished those twice in an eight-day span. On March 4, the Huskies smashed a Baker-Mazara-less USC team 91–72, outscoring the Trojans 51–29 in the second half (Arenas made just five of his 16 field goal attempts). After a blowout loss to the Bruins on Saturday, the Trojans lost again to Washington in overtime Wednesday. Again, USC blew a healthy halftime lead, and again, the Trojans struggled at the line to the tune of a 10-for-18 performance.

What comes next?

Musselman, lured back west before the 2025 season after a five-year stint at Arkansas, is now 35-31 leading USC—a lower winning percentage in Los Angeles than the coach he replaced, current SMU boss Andy Enfield. Arenas, should he leave for the professional ranks, could hear his name called in June’s NBA draft. The Trojans have two intriguing pieces heading their way in 2026—four-star twins Adonis and Darius Ratliff, a forward and center from White Plains, N.Y. Other than that, USC will need to do extensive portal work, as savvy `26 transfer forward Ezra Ausar (a 14.9-point-per-game scorer) is out of eligibility.

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