March Madness: Four Bold Predictions for Women’s Elite Eight

Will all four No. 1 seeds advance to the Final Four in the women’s NCAA tournament? Or will a surprise team play spoiler?

Notre Dame guard Hannah Hidalgo has been an absolute force in the NCAA tournament. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

And then there were eight. The Elite Eight is set for the women’s NCAA tournament, and after some thrillers in the Sweet 16, some equally appetizing matchups await with trips to the Final Four on the line. Will all four No. 1 seeds advance to the Final Four? Can UConn find a way to slow down Notre Dame star Hannah Hidalgo? How will the UCLA offense fare against Duke’s physical defense?

Let’s get to some bold predictions for the four contests.

Hannah Hidalgo logs quadruple-double, but UConn outlasts Notre Dame

In Notre Dame’s Sweet 16 upset of Vanderbilt, Fighting Irish star Hannah Hidalgo scored 31 points, pulled down 11 rebounds, racked up 10 steals and dished out seven assists. Oh, and she set two NCAA records for steals: the most in a single season and the most in a single tournament. Hidalgo is playing so well that when UConn coach Geno Auriemma was asked what he likes about the matchup against Notre Dame, he said he “didn’t like anything about that matchup.”

Despite his uneasiness about the matchup, Auriemma’s Huskies figured out a way to neutralize Hidalgo earlier in the year in an 85–47 rout back in January. With Huskies defensive ace KK Arnold drawing the Hidalgo assignment, UConn held the Notre Dame star to just 16 points on 5-of-15 shooting from the field. But in her career against UConn, Hidalgo has had some monster games. In wins over the Huskies during her freshman and sophomore seasons, Hidalgo nearly notched a triple-double and scored 34 and 29 points, respectively.

So while Arnold, one of the best defensive players in the country, is certainly up to the task of slowing down Hidalgo, it simply may not be possible at the moment given how she’s playing.

As a program, the Notre Dame women have a winning record (5–3) all-time in NCAA tournament games against UConn. And Hidalgo has the experience of defeating them twice in her career. Fighting Irish coach Niele Ivey has played in the rivalry against the Huskies.

Hidalgo and the Irish won’t be scared of the mighty Huskies. And Hidalgo will author a game for the ages, racking up 10-plus points, rebounds, assists and steals to keep Notre Dame in the game for three-plus quarters.

But ultimately, the Huskies’ defense, and the combination of Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd, will prove to be too much for the Fighting Irish, leading to a double-digit UConn win.

Duke sticks around, but UCLA’s guards play their best game of tourney

Duke is undoubtedly playing its best basketball of the season—and UCLA, rather surprisingly, is not. The Blue Devils’ length and suffocating defense gave all LSU players not named MiLaysia Fulwiley fits and made it difficult for the best offense in the country to score. When you factor in what the Blue Devils are getting on the inside from Toby Fournier and Delaney Thomas as well as from point guard Taina Mair, who hit some big shots to lead the way against the Tigers, it’s easy to see how this Elite Eight matchup could play out far differently than UCLA’s 30-point win in November.

Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, the Bruins also have reason to believe the result of the game could be very similar. During their first meeting against Duke, UCLA star center Lauren Betts missed the game due to an arm injury. The Bruins have gotten inconsistent performances from their backcourt thus far, but Betts, averaging 24.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.3 blocks and 1.3 steals, has been an unstoppable force.

Fournier and Thomas found themselves in foul trouble during that first game against UCLA—and Betts wasn’t even playing. That cannot happen in the rematch, or Betts will have free reign on the paint. That said, the Blue Devils’ defense is playing too well right now to predict a blowout.

The best way for UCLA to combat Duke’s length is to get the ball moving side-to-side, something the Bruins—one of the best passing teams in the country—do better than any team. Their guards have yet to find their stroke from three-point range. Knowing that they were able to do so and carry the scoring effort against Duke earlier in the year might just give them the confidence jolt needed heading into this matchup.

Duke will stick around, but UCLA will attack the paint early, opening things up on the perimeter and leading to the Bruins’ best all-around game of the tournament.

Michigan had another slow start against Louisville on Saturday, but coach Kim Barnes Arico got her team to settle down and settle in to eventually cruise to the win. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Michigan stuns Texas on last-second three-pointer

The Wolverines are a young team but they haven’t been afraid of the best teams in the country. Michigan lost to UConn by just three points back in November, a game in which Michigan trailed 22–5 in the first quarter and 45–27 in the third quarter but stormed back to make it a ballgame before ultimately losing in the end. And if a few shots here or there fell the Wolverines’ way, they could have became just the second team to defeat UCLA this season.

So this team has every reason to be feeling confident heading into a showdown with Texas, a well-oiled machine seemingly clicking at the right time. The Wolverines have length at the guard spots, which could help them (in theory) challenge Longhorns elite scorer Madison Booker. However, while Michigan is a strong rebounding team, it lacks size on the interior, which could be problematic against Breya Cunningham and Kyla Oldacre. It’s possible the Wolverines could get pushed around inside. Or have no answer for Booker.

There are plenty of reasons why the Longhorns are a safer pick to win this game. But this is supposed to be a bold prediction, so let’s get bold. The Wolverines’ backcourt trio of Syla Swords, Olivia Olson and Mila Holloway possesses as much offensive firepower as any in the country and can bring the heat defensively too, especially when Michigan fires up its full-court press.

Wolverines coach Kim Barnes Arico has shown her skill at making tactical adjustments. And if Texas opens up a big lead, the Wolverines have proven they have the mettle—and three-point shooting capabilities—to fight back into the game.

The Wolverines will keep it close all the way to the end and will win it on a three-pointer at the buzzer from Swords.

South Carolina rolls to Final Four by 20-plus points

South Carolina followed up each of its two regular-season losses with 12-game winning streaks. The Gamecocks followed up their SEC tournament final loss to Texas by blitzing through their first three NCAA tournament opponents by 69, 40 and 26 points. This speaks both to how Gamecocks coach Dawn Staley adjusts and also to how her squad tends to respond to defeats.

There’s so many different ways for South Carolina to win games right now. In the opening rounds, the Gamecocks overwhelmed Southern and USC with their size on the inside. Against Oklahoma, they used their size to take Sooners star Raegan Beers out of the game, and it was the Gamecocks’ backcourt of Ta’Niyah Latson and Raven Johnson that led the scoring charge for South Carolina. After a 4-for-15 effort from beyond the arc against the Trojans, Staley’s squad found much better shots on the perimeter against Oklahoma, draining 10 of 14 attempts from three-point range.

The Gamecocks have the defensive chops to take TCU star Olivia Miles out of the game and the height to contend with Marta Suarez. Plus, with the way South Carolina is forcing turnovers—and capitalizing on them on the other end—games are quickly getting out of hand for the Gamecocks’ opponents.

This game will be no different, as the Gamecocks will roll to the Final Four with the largest margin of victory of any of the four Elite Eight games.

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