Men’s Basketball State of the Bubble: An Important Final Regular Season Game Awaits Several Bubble Teams

Welcome to State of the Bubble, a weekly column breaking down the March résumés of 16 men’s college basketball teams that find themselves on the cusp of the NCAA tournament.

This column will run each Thursday throughout the rest of the season, utilizing the bubble categories defined by Kevin Sweeney’s weekly bracket watch.

Let’s dive into the outlook of each of the bubble teams heading into the final weekend of the regular season

*NCAA NET Rankings updated through games played on March 4.

Last Four Byes

SMU Mustangs: 19–11 (8–9 ACC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 37
Quad 1 Record: 4–8
Quad 2 Record: 3–3
Quad 3 Record: 5–0
Quad 4 Record: 7–0
Last Game: Lost vs. No. 22 Miami (March 4)
Next Game: at Florida State (March 7)

SMU is certainly not doing itself any favors down the stretch. The Mustangs have lost three straight games and four of their last six, with the latest coming on Wednesday night at home against No. 22 Miami. The Hurricanes are surging, so the most recent loss is nothing for Andy Enfield’s club to necessarily hang their heads about, but the late-season slide is raising more bubble questions than necessary about a team that seemed to be an NCAA tournament loss.

The Mustangs will still likely be O.K. thanks to a perfect record in the bottom two quads and four Quad 1 victories. But a loss to Florida State, a Quad 2 road game in the regular season finale, could make things interesting for SMU’s tournament case.

Ohio State Buckeyes: 19–11 (11–8 Big Ten)

NCAA NET Ranking: 34
Quad 1 Record: 2–10
Quad 2 Record: 7–1
Quad 3 Record: 4–0
Quad 4 Record: 6–0
Last Game: Won 94–62 at Penn State (March 4))
Next Game: Home vs. Indiana (March 7)

Ohio State has done wonders for its résumé over the past week, upsetting No. 8 Purdue at home for a second Quad 1 win and then traveling to Penn State and blowing the doors off an overmatched Penn State squad in Happy Valley. The Buckeyes needed the upset of Purdue desperately, but the emphatic win over the Nittany Lions in a Quad 2 tilt certainly helped as well. The Buckeyes face fellow bubble member Indiana at home to close the regular season on Saturday, where a win would likely seal an at-large bid.

UCLA Bruins: 20–10 (12–7 Big Ten)

NCAA NET Ranking: 36
Quad 1 Record: 4–8
Quad 2 Record: 6–2
Quad 3 Record: 3–0
Quad 4 Record: 7–0
Last Game: Won 72–52 vs. No. 9 Nebraska (March 3)
Next Game: at USC (March 7)

UCLA earned its fourth Quad 1 win earlier this week against No. 9 Nebraska, completing a perfect regular season record at Pauley Pavilion and likely sealing up an NCAA tournament bid. The only reason the Bruins found themselves remotely close to the bubble was because the program lost a head-scratcher last week by five at Minnesota. Recent wins at home against No. 5 Illinois, at home against USC and at home against the Cornhuskers should find the Bruins dancing, regardless of result in the regular season finale against USC.

TCU Horned Frogs: 20–10 (10–7 Big 12)

NCAA NET Ranking: 42
Quad 1 Record: 5–7
Quad 2 Record: 5–1
Quad 3 Record: 3–1
Quad 4 Record: 7–1
Last Game: Won 73–65 at No. 10 Texas Tech (March 3)
Next Game: Home vs. Cincinnati (March 7)

TCU had long been trying to avenge a Quad 3 and Quad 4 loss on the résumé with more top-end wins, and what better way to dismiss any questions about NCAA tournament status than a Quad 1 road win against a surging Texas Tech squad? TCU’s eight-point victory against the Red Raiders, who have been awesome of late despite losing All-American JT Toppin to a season-ending ACL injury, was the Horned Frogs’ fifth win in Quad 1. TCU now has 10 wins in the top two quadrants, and now appears to be a lock for March.

Last Four In

Texas A&M Aggies: 20–10 (10–7)

NCAA NET Ranking: 43
Quad 1 Record: 5–6
Quad 2 Record: 3–4
Quad 3 Record: 4–0
Quad 4 Record: 8–0
Last Game: Won 96–85 at Kentucky (March 3)
Next Game: at LSU (March 7)

Bucky McMillian has done an admirable job in year one in College Station, but losses in six of eight games had Texas A&M’s NCAA tournament hopes in question. But the Aggies picked up a significant Quad 1 win in their home finale against Kentucky earlier this week, which certainly helps the state of the résumé for McMillian & Co. Texas A&M closes the regular season with a Quad 2 road game at LSU, where a win should seal an at-large bid. It would be the program’s ninth win in the top two quadrants, with no bad losses to speak of.

New Mexico Lobos: 22–8 (13–6 Mountain West)

NCAA NET Ranking: 44
Quad 1 Record: 2–5
Quad 2 Record: 6–1
Quad 3 Record: 4–2
Quad 4 Record: 9–0
Last Game: Lost 82–74 vs. Colorado State (March 4)
Next Game: at Utah State (March 7)

The Lobos have some work to do.

Days after picking up a giant home win against fellow bubble hopeful San Diego State, New Mexico dropped a home tilt to Colorado State on Wednesday that saw the visiting Rams hit 11 threes in the upset. A Quad 1 road opportunity awaits in the regular season finale against Utah State, where a win would really help quell any questions about the Lobos. It would mark the program’s third Quad 1 victory and ninth in the top two quadrants, as New Mexico continues to try to avenge two losses in Quad 3.

Santa Clara Broncos: 24–7 (15–3 WCC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 41
Quad 1 Record: 1–5
Quad 2 Record: 7–1
Quad 3 Record: 7–0
Quad 4 Record: 8–1
Last Game: Won 93–72 vs. Oregon State (Feb. 28)
Next Game: TBD - Mountain West Quarterfinals (March 8)

Santa Clara’s path to the NCAA tournament is straight forward. A win over Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s in the WCC tournament without winning the conference title would seal an at-large bid. Anything short of that, and the Broncos will be sweating out Selection Sunday with only one Quad 1 win on the résumé and a loss in Quad 4. The WCC tournament begins this weekend.

VCU Rams: 23–7 (14–3 Atlantic-10)

NCAA NET Ranking: 46
Quad 1 Record: 1–5
Quad 2 Record: 4–2
Quad 3 Record: 9–0
Quad 4 Record: 9–0
Last Game: Won 70–65 vs. George Mason (March 3)
Next Game: at Dayton (March 6)

VCU picked up a Quad 3 win in a can’t lose spot against George Mason on Tuesday. The Rams remained perfect in the bottom two quadrants with the victory, and now travels on the road to Dayton to conclude the regular season. It’s a Quad 1 game for the Rams, where a win could seal up an NCAA tournament bid. A loss will leave plenty of questions and little room for error entering the A-10 tournament.

First Four Out

Indiana Hoosiers: 18–12 (9–10 Big Ten)

NCAA NET Ranking: 40
Quad 1 Record: 2–10
Quad 2 Record: 3–2
Quad 3 Record: 6–0
Quad 4 Record: 7–0
Last Game: Won 77–47 vs. Minnesota (March 4)
Next Game: at Ohio State (March 7)

Indiana finds itself squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble after losing four out of six to end the month of February. The Hoosiers won by 30 on Wednesday night against Minnesota in the program’s home finale, setting up a huge opportunity on Saturday to get back into the projected tournament field on the road against Ohio State. It’s a must-win for the Hoosiers, who otherwise will have to do some serious damage in the Big Ten tournament for a bid.

San Diego State Aztecs: 19–10 (13–6 Mountain West)

NCAA NET Ranking: 47
Quad 1 Record: 2–6
Quad 2 Record: 5–3
Quad 3 Record: 5–1
Quad 4 Record: 6–0
Last Game: Lost 86–77 at Boise State (March 3)
Next Game: vs. UNLV (March 6)

San Diego State is probably wishing they didn’t play Whittier College on Dec. 22 in a non-Division I tilt that doesn’t count towards its tournament résumé. The Aztecs have lost four of five, leaving their at-large hopes in serious doubt. San Diego State concludes the regular season with a Quad 3 home game against UNLV. A loss will effectively end the Aztecs’ at-large chances. Either way, San Diego State will need to win at least a couple games in the Mountain West tournament to have a chance.

Auburn Tigers: 16–14 (7–10 SEC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 40
Quad 1 Record: 4–11
Quad 2 Record: 4–2
Quad 3 Record: 2–1
Quad 4 Record: 6–0
Last Game: Won 88–74 vs. LSU (March 3)
Next Game: at No. 16 Alabama (March 7)

The metrics continue to love Auburn thanks to the program’s eight wins in the top two quadrants in 13 tries. However, there is still work to be done for the Tigers, who beat LSU by 14 on Tuesday night in a must-win contest. The Tigers have a chance to vault themselves back into the projected tournament field with a fifth Quad 1 win at No. 16 Alabama in Saturday night’s regular season finale. A loss, and Auburn will need to win a couple games in the SEC tournament—at the very least.

Virginia Tech Hokies: 19–11 (8–9 ACC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 54
Quad 1 Record: 2–9
Quad 2 Record: 6–2
Quad 3 Record: 3–0
Quad 4 Record: 8–0
Last Game: Won 72–63 vs. Boston College (March 3)
Next Game: at No. 13 Virginia (March 7)

Virginia Tech’s path to the NCAA tournament at this point is simple, not easy. If the Hokies beat Virginia in a Quad 1 road game on Saturday, the Hokies would own three Quad 1 wins and nine in the top two quadrants. As it currently stands, the head scratching home blowout loss to Florida State in February is now a Quad 2 contest, giving Virginia Tech an undefeated 11–0 record in the bottom two quads. Even with a win on Saturday in Charlottesville, a win or two in next week’s ACC tournament would go a long way towards sealing a bid for Virginia Tech in a very up-and-down season.

Next Four Out

USC Trojans: 18–12 (7–12 Big Ten)

NCAA NET Ranking: 68
Quad 1 Record: 1–9
Quad 2 Record: 8–2
Quad 3 Record: 4–1
Quad 4 Record: 4–0
Last Game: Lost 91–72 at Washington (March 4)
Next Game: vs. UCLA (March 7)

USC has lost six straight games after a 19-point blowout loss at Washington on Wednesday night. The Trojans have to beat UCLA on Saturday to put its at-large bid back on life support. Otherwise, it’s hard to envision USC making the field unless the Trojans win the Big Ten tournament.

Cal Golden Bears: 21–9 (9–8 ACC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 64
Quad 1 Record: 4–5
Quad 2 Record: 2–3
Quad 3 Record: 6–1
Quad 4 Record: 8–0
Last Game: Won 76–65 at Georgia Tech (March 4)
Next Game: at Wake Forest (March 7)

Cal has put together a really nice season in Year Three under Mark Madsen. The issue that the Golden Bears are facing is that they only have six wins in the top two quads. The 6–8 record certainly isn’t bad, but it falls short when comparing résumés against other bubble hopefuls. The one loss in Quad 3 also doesn’t help Cal’s case. The good news for the Golden Bears is that a Quad 1 game awaits on the road against Wake Forest in the regular season finale. A win there and some wins in the ACC tournament next week could put the program back in the conversation.

Cincinnati Bearcats: 17–13 (9–8 Big 12)

NCAA NET Ranking: 44
Quad 1 Record: 3–10
Quad 2 Record: 5–2
Quad 3 Record: 2–0
Quad 4 Record: 7–1
Last Game: Won 90–68 vs. BYU (March 3)
Next Game: at TCU (March 7)

Wins in six of the last seven games for the Bearcats have put the program back on the NCAA tournament bubble. But after digging themselves a significant hole early in Big 12 play, there is still work to be done to clinch an at-large tournament bid. It begins this Saturday in the regular season finale on the road at TCU, a Quad 1 game that would make Cincinnati’s chances at a bid much more realistic. Winning the contest and 2–3 games in the Big 12 tournament could complete an unlikely comeback story for the 2025–26 Bearcats.

Stanford Cardinal: 19–11 (8–9 ACC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 63
Quad 1 Record: 4–6
Quad 2 Record: 4–2
Quad 3 Record: 4–3
Quad 4 Record: 7–0
Last Game: Won 86–78 at Notre Dame (March 4)
Next Game:at NC State (March 7)

Stanford would be a tournament team with its record against the top two quadrants (8–8). The issue for the Cardinal is that it’s lost three Quad 3 games this season, which makes Saturday’s Quad 1 road game at NC State a must-win if Stanford wants a crack at the NCAA tournament in a couple weeks. It would take a strong showing in the ACC tournament (2–3 wins) plus a victory against the Wolfpack to get the program into the NCAA tournament.