What JT Toppin’s Season-Ending Injury Means for Texas Tech’s March Madness Ambitions

Fresh off a 78–75 overtime road win against then-No. 1 Arizona over the weekend, No. 13 Texas Tech was upset 72–67 on the road by Arizona State on Tuesday night in Tempe, Ariz.

The upset loss for the Red Raiders, which marked the Sun Devils’ first victory over a ranked opponent since January 2025, was one thing. But the bigger story coming out of the contest was the well-being of Red Raiders star JT Toppin, who fell awkwardly while driving to the basket with just over six minutes to play in the game. He limped to the locker room with assistance from the Red Raiders’ medical staff and did not return to the contest after scoring 20 points and adding eight rebounds.

Texas Tech shared the extent of Toppin’s injury on Wednesday afternoon, announcing that last year’s Big 12 Player of the Year will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL in his right knee.

JT Toppin heads to the locker room following an apparent right leg injury. pic.twitter.com/1JDSGcYK5J
— ESPN (@espn) February 18, 2026

Toppin, who was an AP preseason All-American, had looked every bit the part this season for Texas Tech. The junior is one of the best players in all of college basketball, averaging 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game on 54.8% shooting.

How the loss of JT Toppin impacts Texas Tech’s NCAA tournament hopes

Losing Toppin derails a Texas Tech team that appeared to have a real chance at a Final Four. The Red Raiders had just secured one of the best wins by any team this season in college basketball, a road victory over the weekend at Arizona, to go with earlier victories over fellow elite teams Houston and Duke. And Toppin had been incredible in all those games. He had 31 points, 13 rebounds and was unstoppable late against Arizona, another 31 and 12 in the win over Houston and stacked up a 19-point, 10-rebound double-double against Duke. Toppin had also been something of an iron man for a Red Raiders team that has been riddled with injuries all season long, playing nearly 35 minutes per game.

The only positive news for Tech is that the Red Raiders are finally a bit healthier behind Toppin. Villanova transfer Josiah Moseley and VCU import Luke Bamgboye, who were each expected to play key roles in the preseason, have returned of late and should step into the spotlight. And the Red Raiders still have Christian Anderson at the point to anchor one of the best offenses in the country.

Still, Toppin is one of the most valuable players in college basketball, and it’s hard to imagine the Red Raiders not taking a significant step back without him. And if they do, the NCAA selection committee can factor in how Texas Tech looks without him in seeding the Red Raiders, meaning their earlier résumé-topping victories might not mean quite as much.

Also worth monitoring is how this injury impacts Toppin’s long-term future in Lubbock and the Red Raiders’ roster-building efforts for 2026–27. Sources indicated to Sports Illustrated in recent days that Toppin and Texas Tech were trending toward a deal for the 2026–27 season that would’ve made him perhaps the highest-paid player in the country and one of the top-paid college athletes of any sport. This injury could change the Red Raiders’ willingness to make such a deal with Toppin.

While standard nine-month ACL recovery times would put Toppin on track to return early in the 2026–27 college basketball season, there have been multiple recent examples of players on similar timelines not being able to return fully the following year. One notable example is Kentucky big man Jayden Quaintance, who has played just four games this season due to persistent knee swelling after his return in December from an ACL injury. Quaintance played his last game on Feb. 23, 2025, just a week later in the calendar than the injury Toppin just suffered. The Red Raiders are expected to be aggressive this spring in building its roster, but had counted on Toppin being a central piece of that.

Texas Tech will return to the floor on Saturday at home against Kansas State, and will begin life without Toppin in the lineup.

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