Women’s Basketball Bubble Watch: Stanford Is Hanging on by a Thread

With less than a month until selection Sunday, teams on the bubble are running out of time to make their case for the NCAA tournament.

Both Stanford and Virginia Tech are looking to make a return to the NCAA tournament after missing out last season. | Larry Placido/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

Only two weeks removed from conference tournaments, teams around the nation hope to polish their NCAA tournament résumés with just a handful of regular-season games left to play.

The first top-16 reveal hit last week and—stop me if this sounds familiar—UConn is the projected top overall seed. The Huskies are joined by UCLA, South Carolina and Vanderbilt as the four No. 1 seeds as we currently stand. The 16 teams at the front are particularly important in the women’s tournament because those top teams will host first- and second-round games before the tournament moves to neutral sites.

But what about at the other end of the 68-team field?

The final regular-season games are make-or-break for teams sitting on the bubble. Some bluebloods of yesteryear like Stanford and Virginia Tech hope to make a return to the NCAA tournament, while top mid-major schools aim to bolster their record to force the selection committee into a tough choice should an automatic bid not come to fruition.

Here’s a look at the bubble for the women’s NCAA tournament as things currently stand 25 days away from selection Sunday.

Last four byes

• San Diego State
• Arizona State
• Virginia
• Clemson

San Diego State is at the top of the Mountain West, but conference rivals Colorado State and UNLV are just below the Aztecs in the NET rankings. SDSU could cruise through the Mountain West tournament and automatically qualify, but even if another team steals the auto bid, the 20–4 Aztecs should get in anyway.

Molly Miller has quickly turned around Arizona State in her first year with the Sun Devils since jumping over from Grand Canyon. The problem is that ASU doesn’t have a signature win … yet. Miller’s team has games against fellow bubble teams Iowa State and BYU, then a finale against No. 20 Texas Tech to make a statement.

Virginia has a tough road ahead with No. 8 Louisville and No. 22 North Carolina on the horizon. The Cavaliers don’t have a ranked win this season and suffered a tough loss Thursday to California, which is also on the bubble. A bounceback win over Stanford helped, but Virginia needs to take advantage of the opportunities ahead to build its case for March. Elsewhere in the ACC, Clemson hopes to make its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2019. The Tigers are in a good spot at 18–9, but winning at least two out of three against No. 9 Duke and fellow tournament hopefuls Cal and Stanford should go a long way in the committee’s eyes.

Last four in

• Villanova
• Virginia Tech
• Syracuse
• Stanford

Of this cluster of teams, Villanova and Virginia Tech are in the best form. Stanford is hanging on by a thread with seven losses in its last eight games. The Cardinal are on the verge of missing the tournament for the second straight year since Kate Paye took over for legendary coach Tara VanDerveer.

Stanford has four winnable games to finish the regular season, but there’s little wiggle room for another slip following the dramatic slide over the past month. On the other hand, Virginia Tech has won nine of its last 11 games. The Hokies are getting hot at the right time in ACC play as they aim to return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since Kenny Brooks left for Kentucky. Villanova is in a similar boat as the Wildcats were on a six-game heater, but a dreaded matchup with No. 1 UConn on Wednesday snapped that streak.

The Orange don’t have a horrible loss on their schedule, winning eight of their last 10 with three gettable games remaining.

First four out

• Troy
• Santa Clara
• Harvard
• Colorado

Troy (21–5) has a better record than its Sun Belt foe out ahead in the NET rankings with James Madison ranked No. 50 with a 20–8 record. One of Troy and James Madison will more than likely get the conference’s automatic bid and both have a decent at-large case regardless. The Trojans and Dukes have yet to meet this year, pushing all eyes toward the Sun Belt tournament.

Colorado has won seven of its past eight games and is trending toward an at-large bid depending on how the Buffaloes finish. They have beaten No. 12 TCU and bubble teams BYU, Kansas and Kansas State over the hot stretch. Colorado finishes with No. 20 Texas Tech, then tournament hopefuls Utah and BYU. Should JR Payne’s squad continue the heater, CU appears primed for an NCAA tournament appearance after missing out last year.

The Ivy League is set for an interesting finish with Princeton, Columbia and Harvard hopeful to reach the tournament. The Crimson are currently lowest in the NET of the three top Ivy schools, however they finish the regular season with games against Princeton and Columbia with an opportunity to avenge losses to both earlier in the season.

Next four out

• Kansas
• Quinnipiac
• BYU
• South Dakota State

BYU suffered a tough loss to 10–17 Cincinnati on Tuesday night, which followed a blowout loss to Colorado, another bubble team, on Saturday. The Cougars finish their regular season with three games against other bubble teams—Arizona State, Utah and another meeting with Colorado—leaving no room for error. 

In the MAAC, Quinnipiac may miss out at the hands of Fairfield once again, but both sides control its own destiny in the conference tournament. Quinnipiac is 21–5 on the year, which makes the Bobcats worthy of the at-large bid discussion even if they don’t automatically qualify for the NCAA tournament.

South Dakota State is another mid-major with a solid at-large case, but with North Dakota State leading the Summit League, the Jackrabbits’ tourney hopes likely come down to the conference tournament.

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