Alabama vs. Oklahoma: Three Bold Predictions for Friday’s First Round CFP Bout

The Crimson Tide will visit the Sooners on Friday night.

John Mateer and the Sooners will host the Crimson Tide on Friday night. / Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

The second annual 12-team College Football Playoff is set to kick off on Friday night with Oklahoma welcoming Alabama to Norman’s Memorial Stadium for a rematch of their regular-season contest from earlier this year, which OU won 23–21.

The Sooners enter their first CFP since 2019 with a 10–2 record, their second double-digit win season under coach Brent Venables, and the top defense in the SEC. Over 12 games, OU allowed 273.6 yards and 13.9 points per game—both conference lows. Offensively, meanwhile, quarterback John Mateer has the Sooners scoring a respectable 26.4 points per game while also leading them on their current four-game win streak into the playoff.

On the other sideline is Alabama, who after an 8–1 start to the 2025 season, has lost two of its last three—including the aforementioned game against Oklahoma and the SEC Championship Game vs. Georgia. Still, the Crimson Tide sit at 10–3 entering the CFP and are looking to win their first national championship since 2020.

MORE: How Alabama Can Beat Oklahoma in First Round of CFP

We’re into a good one to kick off the Playoff! Here are three bold predictions for Oklahoma vs. Alabama:

Sooners defense will force Ty Simpson, Crimson Tide offense into two-plus turnovers

Ty Simpson and the Crimson Tide struggled vs. Oklahoma earlier this year. / Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

The emergence of 22-year-old Ty Simpson has been among the many reasons why Alabama is back in the CFP for the first time since Nick Saban’s retirement. Over his first 13 games as the Tide's full-time starter, he's completed 64.3% of his passes while throwing the second-most yards (3,268) and second-most touchdowns (26) in the SEC.

Simpson had also taken care of the football for most of the season, throwing just one interception over his first nine games. Over his last four, however, he’s thrown four picks—and the results have reflected it, with Alabama winning just two of those contests.

Against a stifling Oklahoma defense that's forced opposing quarterbacks into nine interceptions this season, expect both Simpson and the Tide offense as a whole to press—something that in turn, will result in multiple turnovers.

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Isaiah Sategna III will tally 100-plus yards and a touchdown for a third-consecutive game

Isaiah Sategna III has added a massive spark to the Sooners' offense. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Oklahoma is riding high heading into the postseason, with wins over Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU over the last month-plus. Sure, the Sooners’ offense hasn’t exactly been anything to write home about—averaging just 22.5 points over their last four games—but wide receiver Isaiah Sategna III certainly has been.

After a relatively slow start to his first season with OU, the Arkansas transfer has turned it on since mid-October. Sategna III is averaging 88 yards and just under six catches per game over his last six, including three 100-plus yard games—and two straight, each with a touchdown reception—since the Sooners’ loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry.

While it won’t be easy for Mateer to get the ball to his favorite target against a Crimson Tide defense boasting the SEC’s top pass defense, with the quarterback finally healthy after mid-season hand surgery, look for him and Sategna III to stay hot Friday night with another 100-yard, one-score performance.

Oklahoma will make it three straight over Alabama with a comfortable 10-point win, advancing to Rose Bowl Game vs. Indiana

Brent Venables has the Sooners back in the CFP. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

It’s hard to believe that this is the third time Alabama and OU will face off against one another in 13 months, but that’s conference realignment, baby!

The Sooners have gotten the better of the Tide over their previous two matchups—the previously mentioned victory this season, as well as a 24–3 win last Fall—and on Friday night in Norman, I’m predicting them to come out on top again.

Behind a championship-ready defense and an offense that keeps on finding it’s way, Oklahoma wins this one over Alabama 27–17, clinching its spot in the CFP quarterfinal Rose Bowl Game against No. 1 Indiana next Thursday.

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