Oregon vs. Indiana: Three Bold Predictions for Friday’s CFP Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Karl Rasmussen | 14 Hours Ago

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza led the team to a win on the road against Oregon earlier this season. / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

A Big Ten rematch is on the slate for the College Football Playoff as Oregon looks to avenge their mid-season loss against Indiana, which remains their lone defeat of the entire campaign, at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta on Friday evening.

When these two teams met at Oregon’s Autzen Stadium during the regular season, Fernando Mendoza & Co. played an incredible game and secured a 30–20 road win, a major statement for Curt Cignetti’s team. The Ducks have not forgotten that loss, and they’ll be looking to get their revenge with the stakes even higher on Friday.

Oregon made quick work of James Madison in the first round of the CFP before shutting out Texas Tech in the quarterfinal. The defense looked outstanding against the Red Raiders and it will hope to carry that performance over into the game against the Hoosiers.

As for Indiana, they thoroughly walloped Alabama in a 38–3 blowout in the quarterfinal after getting a bye in the first round. They were the only team that had a bye that won last week, and they looked as if the team hadn’t skipped a beat.

With a place in the national championship on the line, this Big Ten showdown figures to be a phenomenal battle, and we’re going to make a few bold predictions for the contest.

Fernando Mendoza will throw have two or fewer touchdown passes and throw at least one interception

Fernando Mendoza had one touchdown pass and one interception in his previous matchup against Oregon this season. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Heisman winner is one game away from a national championship, up against a team he’s already beaten at their home stadium. Indiana is favored to win over Oregon, but this is a revenge game for a Ducks team that just recorded four turnovers in the quarterfinals against Texas Tech.

Mendoza has thrown just six interceptions all season, compared to 36 touchdowns. In the Hoosiers’ previous matchup against Oregon, he had one of his worst games of the year. He threw for just one touchdown and one interception while being limited to just 215 yards. Outside of Indiana’s season-opener, it was the fewest yards per pass attempt (6.9) he’s recorded all season.

I’m expecting the Ducks defense to come prepared for the clash against Mendoza and Indiana. Oregon will force at least one interception off the Heisman winner and limit him to two or fewer touchdown passes. Brandon Finney Jr. is coming off a career game against Texas Tech, and I think he’ll have another dominant game in the secondary for Oregon. He recorded a pick six off Mendoza earlier this year, and will be displaying his ball-hawking prowess once again on Friday.

Indiana’s defense will record three-plus sacks and multiple turnovers against Dante Moore and Oregon

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore was sacked six times last time he played against Indiana / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The last time these two teams met, Dante Moore had two turnovers in the Ducks’ 30–20 defeat. Prior to the CFP, it was Moore’s only multi-interception game of the season, though he had another such game against James Madison in the first round. Moore threw just nine interceptions this season, but he had a lot of trouble stringing together positive plays against Indiana’s nation-best defense.

Additionally, Indiana’s pass rush was a nightmare for Oregon to solve in that Week 7 clash. Moore had limited time in the pocket, which resulted in some errant throws on his part, and was sacked six times. It was the most sacks he’s taken in a game during his career at Oregon. The relentless pressure from Indiana’s front seven overwhelmed the Ducks’ offensive line, something that could once again be a major factor in the outcome of this game.

I’m expecting Indiana to win the battle in the trenches, and as a result, gain the upper hand in the turnovers department, too. The Hoosiers’ defense will sack Moore three or more times, and they’ll help the team pick up a pair of key turnovers, too.

Oregon will get revenge on Indiana in narrow win by four or fewer points

Oregon running back Noah Whittington / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It’s often said that it’s harder to win the second game in a rematch against a team than it is to win the first meeting. Oregon is out for revenge after suffering their only loss of the season at home against the Hoosiers. Now, they’ll have a chance to exact revenge and make a huge statement by taking down college football’s last remaining undefeated team.

I think this game will be decided in its final moments, and that Oregon will stun the Hoosiers and pick up a win by four or less points. The Ducks’ running game will finish off drives for them as they have all season long. Last week, Jordon Davison played the role of the finisher, scoring two rushing touchdowns out of the backfield. He’s dealing with a broken clavicle, so he might not be available on Friday. That’s a big loss, but Oregon has the running back depth to make up for it with Noah Whittington and Dierre Hill set to take on a bigger role.

In the end, I think Oregon will do just enough to take down the previously undefeated Indiana, winning a close game by less than four points thanks to some late heroics from the Ducks’ backfield. I think Whittington will have a big game with the stakes at their highest, rushing for a pair of touchdowns including a late, go-ahead score in the fourth quarter.

Final score prediction: Oregon 27, Indiana 24

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