Oregon vs. Texas Tech: Three Bold Predictions for College Football Playoff Clash

Karl Rasmussen | 2 Hours Ago

The Oregon Ducks will take on the Texas Tech Raiders in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Oregon and Texas Tech are set to do battle at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. in the quarterfinal of the College Football Playoff.

After being awarded the No. 4 seed by the CFP commitee, the Red Raiders had a bye in the opening round of play. They’ll be well rested, but perhaps a bit rusty, having not played a game since Dec. 6, when they defeated BYU in the Big 12 Championship.

Oregon, on the other hand, was ranked No. 5 and took on No. 12 James Madison in the opening round of the CFP. They jumped out to a big lead, and despite a lackluster showing in the second half, secured their place in the quarterfinal with a 51–34 win.

The Ducks and Red Raiders will kick off the new year with an early game on Thursday, Jan. 1, slated to start at noon ET. So, let’s make some bold predictions for the contest.

Jacob Rodriguez will record 10+ tackles and force a fumble

Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez / Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rodriguez is the best defensive player in the country, and even earned some Heisman votes for his efforts on that side of the ball. In 2025, Rodriguez had 117 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, four interceptions and a nation-high seven forced fumbles, and won the Nagurski Trophy and the Bednarik Award.

The leader of one of the country’s best defenses, Rodriguez will be looking to lead his program to a win in its first-ever College Football Playoff game. He’s risen to the occasion in every game this season, and was stalwart against BYU in the Big 12 title game, during which he had 13 tackles including one tackle for loss.

I’m expecting him to be making plays all over the field on Thursday. Not only will he have double-digit tackles, but I’m predicting Rodriguez will have a pass defense, a forced fumble and multiple tackles for loss, too.

Dante Moore will throw for two-plus touchdowns

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore / Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Texas Tech run defense has been the best in the nation this season, so Oregon will have its work cut out trying to move the ball on the ground. To take down the Red Raiders, the Ducks will have to take to the air and trust Moore to make some big plays downfield. This season, Moore has been highly accurate, even while working with a wide array of receivers. Injuries have seen the Ducks rotate its receiving corps throughout the year, but they’re near full strength again for the playoffs.

There’s not many weak points in the Texas Tech defense, but I think the advantage through the air leans in the favor of Moore and the Ducks. I’m expecting him to throw the ball to true freshman Dakorien Moore and standout tight end Kenyon Sadiq plenty, especially if the rushing attack can’t get going.

No quarterback has thrown for two or more touchdowns against the Red Raiders since Kansas’s Jalon Daniels did so in October, but I’m expecting Moore and the Ducks to find a way to get the job done in the passing game.

Oregon’s offense will out-duel Texas Tech’s defense in low-scoring, narrow victory

Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Texas Tech has only surrendered more than 20 points one time all season, but they haven’t been matched up with offenses quite as potent as Oregon’s. I don’t think the Ducks will come anywhere close to the 51 points they scored in the first round against JMU, but they should have some success through the air with Moore under center and his top weapons back in action.

I’m not expecting a lot of points in Thursday’s game. Oregon has a top passing defense, while Texas Tech has forcefully shut down the run all season long. Behren Morton could struggle to pick out his receivers downfield, while the multi-faceted Ducks running game may have difficulties finding room to work out of the backfield.

In the end, I think Dan Lanning’s side will find a way to pull off a victory in a game that will have less than 40 total points. Oregon will advance to the semifinals where a matchup against Indiana, or Alabama, will await.

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