Penn State Bounces Back in a Big Way? Four Bold Predictions for College Football Week 6

Last Saturday was a bold predictor’s dream.

In this column, we teed up four dice rolls for the first weekend of October: a hangover for Florida, a huge day for Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith against a top Iowa defense, BYU blowing out TCU and Minnesota beating Michigan. No fewer than three of those predictions came true—Missouri blew out the Gators, Smith caught 11 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns, and the Golden Gophers wrested back the Little Brown Jug. (The Cougars won, but only by a touchdown).

Let’s try again this week, aiming even bolder. Here are four bold predictions for the weekend to come in college football.

Either Indiana or Texas takes a close surprise loss

Why are the Hoosiers and Longhorns being grouped together? Because both are, for the time being, 7.5-point favorites away from their home fields—Indiana at Nebraska, and Texas against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. The relatively small spreads against unranked opponents hint that one is ripe for a fluky upset—the kind that will dent but not destroy a team’s CFP chances.

The case for the Cornhuskers: the persistent sensation that coach and Lanterns star Matt Rhule’s squad is being underrated (ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ has Nebraska No. 12). The case for the Sooners: their defense, No. 2 in the SEC by yardage, can hassle the Longhorns’ No. 12-in-the-SEC-by-yardage offense.

Penn State knocks USC out of the CFP race by multiple touchdowns

Discounting the fact that this game will be the Nittany Lions’ annual White Out, it’s hard to shake the feeling that Penn State has yet to play its best game in year one under coach Matt Campbell—especially on defense. For instance, while Penn State allowing 413 yards to Northwestern last Friday generated headlines across the country, the Nittany Lions held Wisconsin to just 120. Let’s assume the Wildcats game was an outlier and Penn State continues to play solid pass defense against Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava.

A bad USC defense should give Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht a can’t-miss get-right opportunity—one that he desperately needs after two forgettable weeks. A trio of touchdown passes from Becht outweigh an interception and a fumble, and Penn State wins a sloppy game 35–21.

Duke’s Nate Sheppard runs for 300 yards on Georgia Tech

Rarely does a potential record-breaking performance announce itself so loudly in advance. Sheppard, the nation’s third-leading rusher, is facing the worst rushing defense in the ACC—the Yellow Jackets are allowing 189 yards per game on the ground. Remnants of Hurricane Isaias seem likely to dump rain on Atlanta. discouraging air attacks. Running back Mataeo Durant holds the Blue Devils’ single-game rushing record with 255 yards against Charlotte in 2021. That’ll fall as Sheppard records FBS’s 10th 300-yard game this decade.

NC State continues its recovery by upsetting Wake Forest

There are post-hype teams, and there are post-post-hype teams, and there is whatever the Wolfpack are after morale-sapping losses on Aug. 29 (to Virginia in a blowout) and Sept. 19 (to Vanderbilt on a notorious last-second fumble). NC State tanked its stock enough for its win over Louisville last Saturday to register as a shocker, and the Wolfpack will ride that momentum to a win over the Demon Deacons.

While it’s true NC State’s defense (89th in scoring) is putrid, the rivals’ offenses are evenly matched, and a rainy environment should work in the home team’s favor. Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey has thrown an interception in three straight games—let’s say he keeps the slate clean this time, and NC State effectively deploys backup quarterback Will Wilson (scorer of six rushing touchdowns) to supplement Bailey. That’s a good recipe for a low-scoring, 24–17 win.

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