Predicting When College Football’s Nine Undefeated Teams Will Lose Their First Game

And then there were nine. Fifteen undefeated teams entered Week 6 of the college football season, and nine made it out unscathed. If there’s been any theme of this college football season, it’s that no team is perfect, but these nine programs have found a way to remain so thus far.

Yet, that’s bound to change for some of these teams sooner or later. Let’s predict when college football’s nine undefeated teams will take a loss—if we think they will take a loss, that is.

BYU Cougars

First loss prediction: vs. No. 2 Notre Dame, Saturday

It’s nothing short of incredible what BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has done the last couple weeks with an injury-riddled offensive unit, and the Cougars defense is balling right now. But Notre Dame’s Jonaz Walton–led rushing attack, which has rumbled for 602 yards on the ground in its last two games combined, should be a good test for Kelly Poppinga’s stout run defense.

Defensively, the Fighting Irish have the athletes on the front seven to limit Bachmeier’s running lanes, and the Cougars’ pass catchers may find the sledding tough against one of the best secondaries in the country. BYU can give Notre Dame a good game, but the Fighting Irish will prevail in the end to hand the Cougars their first loss of the season.

Utah Utes

First loss prediction: vs. No. 20 Houston, Oct. 24

The Utes have looked just as good under Morgan Scalley as they did under former longtime coach Kyle Whittingham, no easy feat for a first-year coach. That said, Houston presents a difficult matchup for multiple reasons. Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman has been one of the best passers in the country, and his ability to extend plays with his legs could pose problems for a Utes defense that struggled to keep Kansas quarterback Isaiah Marshall in the pocket in a Week 6 win over the Jayhawks.

Utah’s offense, perhaps in some growing pains under first-year offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven, has gone quiet at times during the last three games, something that could doom them against a Houston defense that may have found its footing in the last couple weeks.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

First loss prediction: vs. Arizona, Oct. 31

Texas Tech has dates with a couple of feisty Big 12 opponents in Arizona State and Cincinnati coming up, though I suspect they should be able to put up points against two of the lesser defenses in the conference in the Sun Devils and Bearcats. Arizona, however, will be a different story.

The Wildcats, besides getting gashed on the ground by West Virginia, have played stout defensively and the offense was extremely explosive, even without the program’s top three receivers and starting tight end. The Red Raiders have had their fair share of offensive struggles this season, something that could come back to bite them against Arizona, which pressures the QB as well as any team in the nation.

Miami Hurricanes

First loss prediction: at No. 2 Notre Dame, Nov. 7

The Hurricanes haven’t yet been truly tested this season but that will all change come Nov. 7. The Fighting Irish have the horses on the defensive line and the secondary to affect Darian Mensah’s timing, and the run-powered offense to play keep-away from Mensah & Co. Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr is also more than capable of taking to the air and keeping pace with Mensah if necessary, giving the Irish multiple different paths to victory here.

James Madison Dukes

Most likely first loss: Not before the CFP (if they make it)

The 2025–26 Miami (Ohio) basketball team? Meet ’26 James Madison football. After enjoying success with the likes of Curt Cignetti and Bob Chesney, the Dukes have continued the impressive coaching pipeline with former Florida coach Billy Napier, who has led this team to a 6–0 start complete with the seventh-best turnover margin in the country.

The Dukes don’t beat themselves while arguably their toughest opponent on the schedule, Georgia State, has been turnover-prone this season. The Dukes, the last unbeaten Group of 6 team, have a great shot at going undefeated, but the country’s sixth-easiest schedule might make them a potential snub by the CFP committee.

UCLA Bruins

First loss prediction: In the Big Ten championship game

In first-year coach Bob Chesney’s biggest win yet at the helm in UCLA, the Bruins went to Autzen Stadium and became just the third team to beat Oregon on the road since Dan Lanning was hired. The Bruins were playing their (previously) third-string quarterback, turned the ball over three times, committed several killer penalties that gave the Ducks their chances to win the game—and still found a way to emerge victorious.

UCLA’s defense is opportunistic and physical at the point of attack, and the offense plays an old-school, smashmouth type of game powered by the Wayne Knight–led rushing attack. While starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava is expected to miss the rest of the season due to a knee injury he suffered during the win over Oregon, don't be surprised if the Bruins keep on winning without the former five-star recruit, who posted the lowest QBR among starting signal-callers in the Big Ten this season. With just one ranked game remaining on the schedule, the Bruins might be Big Ten title game—and potentially CFP—bound.

Georgia Bulldogs

Most likely first loss: In the SEC championship game

The Bulldogs showed why they could win the SEC in that hard-fought win over Alabama on Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium. With leading rusher Nate Frazier sidelined, Dwight Phillips Jr. was once again more than capable of handling lead back duties, giving Kirby Smart the multipronged rushing attack he has tended to prefer. Gunner Stockton was at his best when the Bulldogs needed it most, and the defense was able to prevent Keelon Russell from taking over the game with both his arm and legs.

Arguably Georgia’s toughest game remaining is at No. 9 Ole Miss in November, but much of the lessons learned in the win over Alabama can be applied to that contest. The Bulldogs have a real chance to go undefeated in the regular season for the first time since their back-to-back title-winning seasons, but I think an out-for-revenge Alabama team might just unseat them in the SEC title game.

Indiana Hoosiers

First loss prediction: In the College Football Playoff

Indiana has had its fair share of adversity against Big Ten foes Northwestern and Nebraska, but the Hoosiers will be better for it in games like a Week 7 clash with Ohio State. The Buckeyes defense is playing really well and the Hoosiers’ secondary will be hard-pressed to stop Jeremiah Smith. But Indiana might just be deeper in the trenches, particularly defensively, than the Buckeyes and Bryant Haines may figure out a way to make Ohio State one-dimensional offensively. If the Hoosiers can get through the Buckeyes, I don’t see a loss coming their way until the College Football Playoff, at least.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

First loss prediction: None

Yes, that’s right, this is a prediction that Notre Dame won’t lose a game all season long. I predicted the Fighting Irish to win the national championship when we took a glance into our crystal ball before the season began, and I’ve seen nothing yet that changes my mind. The Fighting Irish have arguably the best secondary in the country, and a stout front seven that’s equally as disruptive against the run and the pass. Carr has been one of the most efficient and effective downfield passers in the sport, he has go-to targets in Jordan Faison and Micah Gilbert, and true freshman Jonaz Walton might be the next great Notre Dame running back.

The Fighting Irish have won 16 straight games by 10 points or more, and while they’ll face adversity against BYU and Miami, I believe they’ll come out of the other side stronger with a win to boot. This looks like a championship team in the making.

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