Projecting College Football Playoff Bracket: What to Know About the Bubble Debate

Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami each have a case for the final at-large bid, while ACC champion Duke could be left out of the field in favor of a second Group of 5 team.

Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney and the Hurricanes will wait to see if the selection committee puts them in the field as an at-large team. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Like everybody, I’m locked into the two bubble debates. 

The first is of far more consequence to this year’s playoff because I can see any one of Alabama, Notre Dame or Miami making a run if they get into the tournament—especially in light of the likely opponents in Texas A&M and Oklahoma. I think we’ve seen enough from the committee the past few weeks to know they really like what they’ve seen out of the Fighting Irish. They’ve won 10 in a row and the résumé aspect of what Marcus Freeman’s team brings to the table really hasn’t been highlighted as much as their play between the lines when the committee chair has spoken about the team. That makes me think enough of the voting members in the room will have Notre Dame high enough on their ballots to put them in, perhaps even enough to land them a home game over a Sooners team that saw their best win take a hit in Atlanta. 

Despite the lackluster showing the past month from the Crimson Tide however, I’m not willing to put them out of the field just yet (even if I personally would). They still have better metrics and wins than Miami and would act as the natural buffer between those two teams’ head-to-head result much like they’ve been doing all year. 

Finally, what kind of debate will there be in the room about Duke? The Blue Devils didn’t appear in any Top 25 the committee assembled, and it would be pretty shocking to see a five-loss team, even one that won the ACC, wind up above James Madison, which is 12–1 and was ranked No. 25 a few days prior. The committee will need a majority of the voters to have Duke over James Madison, and I don’t see that happening. All the metrics favor James Madison even before you can overcome that five next to the record of the team they’re being compared against.

Should that transpire and a Power 4 conference is left entirely out of the CFP, then that has some hefty consequences for the playoff moving forward. Keep in mind the commissioners pushed back a deadline to determine the format for the 2026–27 playoff until after this season’s national championship game and it could be just what either of the Big Ten or SEC need to get the other league on board with over expansion or seeding changes. 

This was a wild conference championship weekend, and it sure might have the most impact long term for the playoff, too. 

Fischer: Projected College Football Playoff Seeding

1. Indiana
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Texas Tech
5. Oregon
6. Mississippi
7. Texas A&M
8. Oklahoma
9. Notre Dame
10. Alabama
11. Tulane
12. James Madison

First team out: Miami
Second team out: Texas

First-round byes

• No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champion, automatic bid)
• No. 2 Ohio State (at-large)
• No. 3 Georgia (SEC champion, automatic bid)
• No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion, automatic bid)

First-round matchups

• No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champion, automatic bid) at No. 5 Oregon (at-large)
• No. 11 Tulane (American champion, automatic bid) at No. 6 Mississippi (at-large)
• No. 10 Alabama (at-large) at No. 7 Texas A&M (at-large)
• No. 9 Notre Dame (at-large) at No. 8 Oklahoma (at-large)

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Forde: Projected College Football Playoff Seeding

1. Indiana
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Texas Tech 
5. Oregon
6. Mississippi 
7. Texas A&M
8. Oklahoma
9. Miami
10. Notre Dame
11. Tulane
12. James Madison

First team out: Alabama
Second team out: Texas 

First-round byes

• No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champion, automatic bid)
• No. 2 Ohio State (at-large)
• No. 3 Georgia (SEC champion, automatic bid)
• No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion, automatic bid) 

First-round matchups

• No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champion, automatic bid) at No. 5 Oregon (at-large)
• No. 11 Tulane (American champion, automatic bid) at No. 6 Mississippi (at-large)
• No. 10 Notre Dame (at-large) at No. 7 Texas A&M (at-large)
• No. 9 Miami (at-large) at No. 8 Oklahoma (at-large)

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