Bowl Projections: Can Baylor make a late College Football Playoff surge?

Baylor isn’t feeling much respect in the playoff system. Last week it ranked two spots behind TCU -- a team it beat 61-58 earlier this fall -- in the College Football Playoff rankings. But fans in Waco might need only to wait two weeks for their chance at redemption. If Baylor beats a top-15 Kansas State in its regular-season finale, Art Briles’ program could have it best case yet for a spot in the top four.

The playoff’s current top three teams -- Alabama, Oregon and Florida State -- are all near-locks for semifinal berths if they win out. But the No. 4 spot is less certain. Ohio State appeared to be a viable contender for that position last week, but its 35-21 nonconference loss to Virginia Tech looks even worse after the Hokies fell to Wake Forest 6-3 in double overtime last weekend. That’s why Baylor, if it tops Kansas State, might be more impressive to the selection committee than an Ohio State that beats Wisconsin or Minnesota in the Big Ten championship game.

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Before moving forward, a quick reminder on how this all works. The selection committee fills the two semifinal bowls based on its final rankings. It then rounds out the four non-playoff New Year’s Six bowls, while fulfilling certain contractual obligations, such as pitting an ACC team against an SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame team in the Orange Bowl. The remaining teams are then fed into each league’s contract bowls. If a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams, bowls can invite replacement teams from other leagues.

This season the ACC, Big Ten and SEC have each pooled a select number of bowls together and will decide where to place teams. While the Big 12 and Pac-12 use a more straightforward method -- the Pac-12’s No. 2 choice would go to the Alamo Bowl, the No. 3 to the Holiday Bowl, etc. -- the process for the other three Power Five leagues is less structured. For instance, the ACC’s No. 2 choice will go to the Russell Athletic Bowl, but teams Nos. 3-6 can land anywhere among the Sun, Belk, Music City/Taxslayer or Pinstripe bowls.

Keep in mind, “Pac-12 No. 2” doesn't mean the Pac-12’s second-place team. Fan travel and geographical location factor into bowl selection as much as conference standings. Thus, leagues aren't obligated to fill bowls based on records.

bowl	date	location	matchup	pick
Peach	Dec. 31	Atlanta	TBD vs. TBD	Georgia vs. Marshall
Fiesta	Dec. 31	Glendale, Ariz.	TBD vs. TBD	Ohio State vs. UCLA
Orange	Dec. 31	Miami	ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND	Ga. Tech vs. Miss. State
Cotton	Jan. 1	Arlington, Texas	TBD vs. TBD	TCU vs. Mich. State
Rose (semifinal)	Jan. 1	Pasadena, Calif.	TBD vs. TBD	Oregon vs. Florida State
Sugar (semifinal)	Jan. 1	New Orleans	TBD vs. TBD	Alabama vs. Baylor

bowl	date	location	matchup	pick
New Orleans	Dec. 20	New Orleans	MWC vs. Sun Belt	Fresno State vs. Ark. State
New Mexico	Dec. 20	Albuquerque, N.M.	C-USA vs. MWC	La. Tech vs. Nevada
Las Vegas	Dec. 20	Las Vegas	MWC vs. Pac-12	Boise State vs. Stanford
Idaho Potato	Dec. 20	Boise, Idaho	MAC vs. MWC	BGSU vs. Utah State
Camellia	Dec. 20	Montgomery, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Toledo vs. So. Alabama
Miami Beach	Dec. 22	Miami	AAC vs. BYU	Memphis vs. BYU*
Boca Raton	Dec. 23	Boca Raton, Fla.	C-USA vs. MAC	WKU vs. W. Michigan
Poinsettia	Dec. 23	San Diego	MWC vs. Navy	Colo. State vs. Navy
Bahamas	Dec. 24	Nassau, Bahamas	C-USA vs. MAC	MTSU vs. C. Michigan
Hawaii	Dec. 24	Honolulu	C-USA vs. MWC	UTEP vs. Air Force
Heart of Dallas	Dec. 26	Dallas	Big Ten vs. C-USA	Rutgers vs. Rice
Quick Lane	Dec. 26	Detroit	ACC vs. Big Ten	Virginia vs. Northwestern
Bitcoin	Dec. 26	St. Petersburg	AAC vs. ACC	Cincinnati vs. NC State
Military	Dec. 27	Annapolis, Md.	AAC vs. ACC	BC vs. UCF
Sun	Dec. 27	El Paso, Texas	ACC vs. Pac-12	Louisville vs. Utah
Independence	Dec. 27	Shreveport, La.	ACC vs. SEC	UNC vs. Arkansas
Pinstripe	Dec. 27	Bronx, N.Y.	ACC vs. Big Ten	Notre Dame vs. PSU
Holiday	Dec. 27	San Diego	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Minnesota vs. USC
Liberty	Dec. 29	Memphis	Big 12 vs. SEC	WVU vs. Tennessee
Russell Athletic	Dec. 29	Orlando, Fla.	ACC vs. Big 12	Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Texas	Dec. 29	Houston	Big 12 vs. SEC	Texas vs. Auburn
Music City	Dec. 30	Nashville	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Miami vs. Texas A&M
Belk	Dec. 30	Charlotte, N.C.	ACC vs. SEC	Duke vs. So. Carolina
Foster Farms	Dec. 30	Santa Clara, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Iowa vs. Arizona
Citrus	Jan. 1	Orlando, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Wisconsin vs. Missouri
Outback	Jan. 1	Tampa, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Nebraska vs. Ole Miss
Armed Forces	Jan. 2	Fort Worth, Texas	ACC vs. Army	Houston vs. Cal**
TaxSlayer	Jan. 2	Jacksonville, Fla.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Maryland vs. LSU
Alamo	Jan. 2	San Antonio	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	K-State vs. Ariz. State
Cactus	Jan. 2	Tempe, Ariz.	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Ohio** vs. Washington
Birmingham	Jan. 3	Birmingham, Ala.	AAC vs. SEC	Florida vs. E. Carolina
GoDaddy	Jan. 4	Mobile, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	NIU vs. UL-Lafayette

* -- Accepted bowl bid

** -- Replacement team