Two Louisville newcomers among projected top 100 scoring transfers

Boston College's Eli Carter, Louisville's Damion Lee among the top projected transfers in college basketball this season.

Over the coming weeks, SI will reveal its player projections, conference forecasts and national rankings for the 2015-16. These are derived from our statistical projection system, a collaboration between economist DanHannerand SI's Luke Winn and Chris Johnson that's now in its second year.

We used our projection model to generate individual stats for every player in each of the top 11 conferences. The individual projections are based on many factors: players' past advanced-statistical performance in the context of more than a decade of D-I player data; the predictive power of recruiting ratings, both on immediate freshman performance and longer-term development; coaches' abilities to develop and maximize talent, as well as their playing-time distribution tendencies; teams' estimated pace of play; and intel from teams on how their rotations will be structured, which helps us better forecast how many minutes and shots will be available to each player.

The fifth reveal of SI's projection-system output focuses on transfers. These are the 100 players that we project to post the highest raw points-per-game figures with new teams this season.

Rank	Name	Team	Previous Team	Projected PPG	Last year’s PPG
1	Eli Carter	Boston College	Florida	14.6	8.8
2	Durand Johnson	St. John's	Pittsburgh	12.9	8.8
3	Ricky Tarrant	Memphis	Alabama	12.7	13.1
4	Damion Lee	Louisville	Drexel	12.6	21.4
5	Joe Rahon	Saint Mary's	Boston College	12.3	9.0
6	Sam Finley	Mississippi	UC Riverside	12.1	12.5
7	Trey Lewis	Louisville	Cleveland St.	11.9	16.3
8	Tyler Harris	Auburn	Providence	11.7	9.9
9	Sterling Gibbs	Connecticut	Seton Hall	11.6	16.3
10	Dusty Hannahs	Arkansas	Texas Tech	11.3	7.7

Eli Carter (No. 1) began his college career at Rutgers, then played his last two seasons at Florida before electing to join Boston College as a graduate transfer with immediate eligibility. The Eagles will need Carter to carry a big load this season after losing first team All-ACC guard Olivier Hanlan to the NBA. Our projections expect Carter to raise his scoring output nearly six points per game from the 8.8 PPG he recorded in 2014-15 with the Gators. Louisville beat out Gonzaga and Maryland, among other programs, for Damion Lee (No. 4) after he led the Colonial Athletic Association in points per game last season. The Cardinals could use an infusion of scoring as they try to replace draft picks Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell.

Rank	Name	Team	Previous Team	Projected PPG	Last year’s PPG
11	Kareem Canty	Auburn	Marshall	11.3	16.3
12	Terry Henderson	North Carolina St.	West Virginia	11.2	11.7
13	Eron Harris	Michigan St.	West Virginia	11.1	17.2
14	Adam Smith	Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	11.1	13.4
15	Ronnie Johnson	Houston	Purdue	11.1	10.8
16	Andrew White	Nebraska	Kansas	11.0	2.6
17	Avry Holmes	Clemson	San Francisco	10.8	12.5
18	Tyler Cavanaugh	George Washington	Wake Forest	10.7	8.8
19	Antwan Space	Massachusetts	Texas A&M	10.6	4.2
20	Seth Allen	Virginia Tech	Maryland	10.3	13.4

Michigan State will hope Eron Harris (No. 13) can help offset the loss of one of the driving forces behind last season’s surprise Final Four run, guard Travis Trice. If Harris can behave off the court—the Spartans suspended him this summer following a drunk driving arrest—he will elevate a talented backcourt that includes national player of the year contenderDenzel Valentine. Wichita State returns two of the nation’s top guards, Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker, but the Shockers stand to benefit from Conner Frankamp’s (No. 17) long-range marksmanship once he becomes eligible for the second semester. The former Wichita (Kan.) North High star played limited minutes as a freshman at Kansas but flashed his potential by scoring 12 points in 18 minutes off the bench during an NCAA tournament loss to Stanford.

Rank	Name	Team	Previous Team	Projected PPG	Last year’s PPG
21	Matt Van Scyoc	Indiana St.	Citadel	10.2	14.3
22	Robert Carter, Jr.	Maryland	Georgia Tech	10.1	11.4
23	Dylan Ennis	Oregon	Villanova	10.0	9.9
24	Chris Olivier	Oklahoma St.	Eastern Illinois	9.8	13.0
25	Princeton Onwas	San Jose St.	Utah	9.7	4.8
26	Roddy Peters	South Florida	Maryland	9.7	4.1
27	Anton Grady	Wichita St.	Cleveland St.	9.6	14.3
28	Conner Frankamp	Wichita St.	Kansas	9.6	2.6
29	Tim Williams	New Mexico	Samford	9.5	17.6
30	Kuran Iverson	Rhode Island	Memphis	9.5	4.6

Seth Allen (No. 21) was one of five players to transfer from Maryland last summer. Our projections expect a dip in points per game from the 13.4 he registered as a sophomore in 2013-14, but the Hokies are looking for Allen to prop up an offense that struggled against ACC competition last season. Another former Terrapins guard, Roddy Peters (No. 27), could help South Florida make strides in the American Athletic Conference during coach Orlando Antigua’s second season in charge.

Rank	Name	Team	Previous Team	Projected PPG	Last year’s PPG
31	Kyle Davis	BYU	Utah St.	9.4	9.1
32	Elijah Brown	New Mexico	Butler	9.4	6.8
33	Josh Fortune	Colorado	Providence	9.4	8.4
34	Malik Morgan	Tulane	LSU	9.4	4.4
35	Maurice Watson	Creighton	Boston University	9.3	13.3
36	Craig Victor	LSU	Arizona	9.2	3.1
37	Ryan Anderson	Arizona	Boston College	9.2	14.3
38	Damyean Dotson	Houston	Oregon	9.2	9.4
39	Charles Cooke	Dayton	James Madison	9.2	14.3
40	Omari Grier	Rutgers	Bradley	9.1	7.9

Two Division I transfers—Ryan Anderson (No. 37) and Mark Tollefsen (No. 62), from San Francisco—could serve as effective frontcourt scorers for Arizona in support of center Kaleb Tarczewski. Our projections expect Anderson’s points per game to drop off from his final season at Boston College, but he could be an important contributor for a team trying to overcome the departures of forwards Brandon Ashley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson. Though year two of the post-McBuckets era could be rough for Creighton, look for Maurice Watson (No. 35) to add some scoring and playmaking to a backcourt that loses Austin Chatman, who led the Bluejays in points per game in 2014-15.

Rank	Name	Team	Previous Team	Projected PPG	Last year’s PPG
41	Cole Huff	Creighton	Nevada	9.1	12.4
42	Steven Haney Jr.	Loyola Marymount	UCF	9.1	1.7
43	Mike Thorne	Illinois	Charlotte	9.1	10.1
44	Kale Abrahamson	Drake	Northwestern	9.1	3.8
45	Nick Jacobs	Georgia Tech	Alabama	8.7	8.4
46	Rasheed Sulaimon	Maryland	Duke	8.6	7.5
47	Jordan Tolbert	SMU	Texas Tech	8.6	10.7
48	John Egbunu	Florida	South Florida	8.2	7.4
49	Four McGlynn	Rhode Island	Towson	8.2	12.0
50	Max Bielfeldt	Indiana	Michigan	8.2	5.1

Illinois will try to earn its first tourney berth since 2013 without its projected starting point guard, Tracy Abrams, who suffered a torn Achilles tendon. But the Illini also must account for the loss of top frontcourt scorer Nnanna Egwu. Our projections expect Mike Thorne Jr. (No. 43), listed at 6'11" and 270 pounds, to eclipse the 6.5 PPG Egwu contributed in 2014-15. Rasheed Sulaimon (No. 46) could help Maryland make a run at the national championship this season after watching his former Duke teammates cut down the nets in Indianapolis last April.

Rank	Name	Team	Previous Team	Projected PPG	Last year’s PPG
51	Shonn Miller	Connecticut	Cornell	8.2	16.8
52	Johnny Hill	Purdue	UT Arlington	8.0	9.6
53	Deonte Burton	Iowa St.	Marquette	7.8	6.4
54	Joey van Zegeren	Northwestern	Virginia Tech	7.8	9.8
55	Jerome Seagears	UNLV	Rutgers	7.7	7.1
56	Derrick Gordon	Seton Hall	Massachusetts	7.7	9.8
57	Ron Mvouika	St. John's	Missouri St.	7.7	5.5
58	Lonnie Jackson	Boise St.	Boston College	7.6	7.0
59	Tyler Lewis	Butler	North Carolina St.	7.5	4.4
60	Nolan Cressler	Vanderbilt	Cornell	7.4	16.8

Sterling Gibbs (No. 9) was UConn’s highest-profile addition on the transfer market this off-season, but don’t overlook Shonn Miller (No. 51). The 6'7" forward finished second in the Ivy League in points per game in 2014-15, and he’ll give the Huskies an interior scoring option to supplement Amida Brimah. Iowa State’s track record of integrating transfers is well documented. This season’s key addition, Deonte Burton (No. 53), should excel under new coach Steve Prohm, but he won’t be eligible until December.

Rank	Name	Team	Previous Team	Projected PPG	Last year’s PPG
61	Korey Billbury	VCU	Oral Roberts	7.4	14.4
62	Mark Tollefsen	Arizona	San Francisco	7.3	14.0
63	Kamari Murphy	Miami FL	Oklahoma St.	7.3	6.1
64	Brendyn Taylor	Santa Clara	USC	7.1	1.1
65	Zach LeDay	Virginia Tech	South Florida	7.0	3.5
66	Alex Mitola	George Washington	Dartmouth	6.9	12.4
67	Sterling Smith	Pittsburgh	Coppin St.	6.9	14.1
68	Arthur Edwards	Alabama	New Mexico	6.9	3.9
69	Jernard Jarreau	Tulane	Washington	6.8	5.1
70	Tomasz Gielo	Mississippi	Liberty	6.5	12.0

One of the biggest questions facing new VCU coach Will Wade is how the Rams will replace senior guards Treveon Graham and Briante Weber. Korey Billbury (No. 61), who ranked fifth in the Summit League in points per game last season, could provide a backcourt scoring alternative to junior JeQuan Lewis and senior Melvin Johnson. While our projections expect Miami to lean heavily on Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez for offense, Kamari Murphy (No. 63) can complement the two guards by scoring inside.

Rank	Name	Team	Previous Team	Projected PPG	Last year’s PPG
71	Angel Nunez	South Florida	Gonzaga	6.5	2.7
72	Shawn Smith	Nevada	Marshall	6.5	12.0
73	Rene Castro	Duquesne	Butler	6.5	3.3
74	Lew Evans	Utah St.	Tulsa	6.5	5.3
75	Ray Barreno	Portland	Tulane	6.5	0.3
76	Stephen Domingo	California	Georgetown	6.1	0.5
77	Marshall Wood	Richmond	Virginia Tech	6.0	4.0
78	Semi Ojeleye	SMU	Duke	5.9	3.0
79	James White	Georgia Tech	Arkansas Little Rock	5.9	11.9
80	Nick Banyard	Illinois St.	New Mexico	5.9	1.7

The addition of a pair of five-star recruits (Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb) moved Cal onto the short list of contenders for the Pac-12 championship. Yet the Golden Bears will also be counting on Stephen Domingo (No. 76), a former four-star recruit from the Bay Area who played sparingly in two seasons at Georgetown. Semi Ojeleye (No. 78) was marginalized in a crowded rotation at Duke, but he’ll give SMU a frontcourt scoring option to go with standout power forward Markus Kennedy and Texas Tech transfer Jordan Tolbert (47).

Rank	Name	Team	Previous Team	Projected PPG	Last year’s PPG
81	Alonzo Nelson-Ododa	Pittsburgh	Richmond	5.7	6.6
82	Akoy Agau	Georgetown	Louisville	5.6	0.0
83	Conor Clifford	Washington St.	UC Irvine	5.6	2.5
84	Devon Thomas	Texas Tech	Missouri St.	5.6	3.2
85	Shane Rector	Utah St.	Missouri	5.6	0.5
86	Willy Kouassi	Arkansas	Kennesaw St.	5.6	4.6
87	Pat Birt	Tulsa	Illinois Chicago	5.5	6.3
88	Anthony Collins	Texas A&M	South Florida	5.5	7.1
89	Graham Woodward	Drake	Penn St.	5.4	2.8
90	Sergej Vucetic	Evansville	Nebraska	5.3	0.6

Anthony Collins (No. 88) was the top backcourt scorer and playmaker on South Florida’s last tourney team (2012). While our projections expect his points per game to fall in College Station this season, Collins will bolster a strong perimeter rotation that also features senior Alex Caruso and sophomore Alex Robinson. Washington State must improve defensively to make progress in the Pac-12 in coach Ernie Kent’s second season, but Conor Clifford (No. 83) can give the Cougars some interior offense to assist projected top scorer Josh Hawkinson.

Rank	Name	Team	Previous Team	Projected PPG	Last year’s PPG
91	Shaquille Cleare	Texas	Maryland	5.2	3.0
92	Leo Vincent	Southern Illinois	Sacred Heart	5.1	6.4
93	Ike Nwamu	UNLV	Mercer	4.8	15.1
94	Jamal Aytes	BYU	UNLV	4.8	2.8
95	Jordan Gathers	Butler	St. Bonaventure	4.7	8.2
96	Valentine Izundu	Washington St.	Houston	4.7	0.0
97	A.J. Davis	UCF	Tennessee	4.6	1.3
98	Ben Carter	UNLV	Oregon	4.6	2.5
99	Rafael Maia	Pittsburgh	Brown	4.0	9.9
100	Johnny Zuppardo	Mississippi St.	Arkansas St.	3.8	1.3

Ike Nwamu (No. 93)—who scored 11 points off the bench to help No. 14 seed Mercer slay No. 3 seed Duke in the 2014 tourney—and Ben Carter (No. 98) are two of three Division I transfers (Jerome Seagears, No. 55, is the other) expected to help UNLV compete with San Diego State and Boise State for the Mountain West title. New Texas coach Shaka Smart will have center Cameron Ridley and power forward Connor Lammert to anchor the frontcourt, but our projections expect Shaquille Cleare (91) to contribute more than five points per game.