Davidson's Jack Gibbs leads SI's Top 100 projected scorers this season

This isn't a list of the best players in college basketball, but of its most potent scorers. And the leader of that list is a non-Power Five star who finished fourth in the country in scoring a year ago.
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Sports Illustrated’s College Basketball Projection System is a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs that produces our 1-351 team rankings, conference predictions and player statistical forecasts. For a deeper look at how the system works, read this explainer.

We simulated the season 10,000 times and generated median stats for every player in the top eight conferences (AAC, ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC) as well as our other forecasted at-large bid candidates (Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, BYU, Wichita State, San Diego State and Princeton). Today we’re unveiling our projected top 100 scorers, according to raw points per game, from that set of teams. See every article in our college basketball preview here

A key to the charts: Proj. PPG = projected raw points per game in 2016-17. ORtg = projected offensive rating, or points per 100 possessions. Volume = projected percentage of team possessions used while on the floor. Mins = projected percentage of minutes played.

Rank

Player

Team

Pos.

Year

Proj. PPG

ORtg

Volume

Mins

'15-16 PPG

1

Jack Gibbs

Davidson

PG

Sr

23.6

112.2

34%

87%

23.4

Davidson senior shooting guard (and Settlers of Catan gamer) Jack Gibbs is a safe bet to lead the multi-bid conferences in scoring. He was fourth last year, behind only Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield, Mississippi’s Stefan Moody and NC State’s Cat Barber, all of whom have moved on to the pros. Gibbs scored 40 or more points three times as a junior, and although we don’t see his scoring average hitting Stephen Curry range—Steph put up 28.6 as a Davidson junior—a 23.6-per-game projection is more than respectable.

Washington's Markelle Fultz, Duke's Jayson Tatum lead top projected freshmen scorers

Iowa’s Peter Jok (No. 2), who’s likely to take on a huge scoring load now that Jarrod Uthoff is in the NBA, is the only major-conference player SI projects to finish ahead of its No. 1 Naismith-and-Wooden award candidate, Duke’s Grayson Allen, in the national scoring race.

Rank

Player

Team

Pos.

Year

Proj. PPG

ORtg

Volume

Mins

'15-16 PPG

6

Jaron Blossomgame

Clemson

PF

Sr

18.9

120.0

25%

85%

18.7

7

Malcolm Hill

Illinois

SG

Sr

18.7

114.2

28%

86%

18.1

8

Rob Gray

Houston

SG

Jr

18.6

116.1

27%

76%

16.0

9

Ivan Rabb

California

PF

So

18.3

119.7

26%

83%

12.5

10

Markelle Fultz

Washington

PG/SG

Fr

18.2

114.6

27%

81%

 

Look for Washington’s Markelle Fultz (No. 10), a potential first-overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft, to lead the nation’s freshmen in scoring. SI projects him at 18.2 points per game, the highest of anyone in the Pac-12, where his main competition should be Cal power forward Ivan Rabb (No. 9), a fellow NBA prospect who should make the leap from freshman role player to sophomore star.

Rank

Player

Team

Pos.

Year

Proj. PPG

ORtg

Volume

Mins

'15-16 PPG

11

Kelan Martin

Butler

PF

Jr

18.1

114.0

26%

81%

15.7

12

Nick Emery

BYU

PG

So

17.9

119.3

22%

85%

16.3

13

James Blackmon, Jr.

Indiana

SG

Jr

17.6

124.6

26%

70%

15.8

14

Jaylen Adams

St. Bonaventure

PG

Jr

17.6

121.8

23%

94%

17.9

15

Donte Clark

Massachusetts

SG

Jr

17.5

106.9

26%

82%

16.2

16

Allonzo Trier

Arizona

SG

So

17.3

116.6

23%

80%

14.8

17

Mike Young

Pittsburgh

PF

Sr

17.3

119.3

26%

76%

15.7

18

Stevie Thompson

Oregon St.

SG

So

17.3

110.9

24%

86%

10.6

19

Dillon Brooks

Oregon

SF

Jr

17.2

117.0

26%

82%

16.7

20

Trevon Bluiett

Xavier

SF

Jr

16.9

121.6

22%

85%

15.1

Kelan Martin (No. 11), a 6' 6" hybrid forward who had Butler’s second-highest number of three-point makes last season, projects to become the team’s leading scorer now that Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones are gone. Martin showed flashes of big-time scoring ability as a sophomore—he had 27 and 35 points in back-to-back games against Marquette and Georgetown—and SI projects him to lead the Big East in scoring as a junior. Sophomore guard Nick Emery (No. 12) is similarly poised to take over the scoring lead at BYU in its first year without Kyle Collinsworth and Chase Fischer.

Rank

Player

Team

Pos.

Year

Proj. PPG

ORtg

Volume

Mins

'15-16 PPG

21

Jayson Tatum

Duke

SF

Fr

16.8

117.7

25%

79%

 

22

Melo Trimble

Maryland

PG

Jr

16.7

113.6

29%

82%

14.8

23

Tyler Cavanaugh

George Washington

PF

Sr

16.7

113.8

25%

79%

16.8

24

J.J. Frazier

Georgia

PG

Sr

16.6

117.0

25%

82%

16.9

25

Dusty Hannahs

Arkansas

SG

Sr

16.5

118.3

24%

68%

16.5

26

Isaac Hamilton

UCLA

SG

Sr

16.5

115.4

22%

85%

16.8

27

Emile Blackman

Duquesne

SG

Sr

16.5

104.0

23%

88%

15.8

28

Moses Kingsley

Arkansas

PF

Sr

16.4

115.2

26%

74%

15.9

29

Rodney Purvis

Connecticut

SG

Sr

16.3

109.5

24%

86%

12.8

30

Jahmal McMurray

South Florida

PG

So

16.3

98.2

25%

93%

15.2

31

B.J. Tyson

East Carolina

PG/SG

Jr

16.3

104.6

25%

86%

14.6

32

Corey Sanders

Rutgers

PG

So

16.2

103.2

27%

87%

15.9

33

Khadeen Carrington

Seton Hall

PG

Jr

16.2

107.2

24%

85%

14.1

34

Yante Maten

Georgia

PF/C

Jr

16.2

106.0

27%

76%

16.5

35

Jawun Evans

Oklahoma St.

PG

So

16.2

112.9

26%

85%

12.9

36

Dedric Lawson

Memphis

PF

So

16.1

105.5

28%

82%

15.8

37

Jabari Bird

California

SG

Sr

16.1

118.8

22%

79%

10.4

38

Peyton Aldridge

Davidson

PF

Jr

16.0

122.9

21%

87%

15.5

39

V.J. Beachem

Notre Dame

SF

Sr

16.0

121.4

20%

83%

12.0

40

Josh Hart

Villanova

SG/SF

Sr

16.0

124.2

23%

79%

15.5

Georgia should have one of the nation’s best scoring duos in guard J.J. Frazier (No. 24) and center Yante Maten (No. 34), but not enough of a supporting cast to project as an NCAA tournament team. Likewise for Oklahoma State, whose starting backcourt of Jawun Evans (No. 35) and Phil Forte III (No. 42) is projected to combine for 32.0 points, but their team projects to finish in the lower half of the Big 12.

maurice-watson-jr-creighton-1300-top-100-scorers.jpg

Rank

Player

Team

Pos.

Year

Proj. PPG

ORtg

Volume

Mins

'15-16 PPG

41

Malik Monk

Kentucky

SG

Fr

16.0

117.1

25%

77%

 

42

Zach LeDay

Virginia Tech

PF

Sr

15.9

119.5

24%

78%

15.5

43

Phil Forte III

Oklahoma St.

SG

Sr

15.9

120.8

21%

80%

13.3

44

Tres Tinkle

Oregon St.

SF

So

15.9

114.0

23%

83%

13.1

45

Dwayne Bacon

Florida St.

SF

So

15.9

106.8

27%

72%

15.8

46

Jamel Artis

Pittsburgh

PG

Sr

15.9

110.8

24%

82%

14.4

47

Nigel Hayes

Wisconsin

PF

Sr

15.9

113.3

27%

85%

15.7

48

Jordan McLaughlin

USC

PG

Jr

15.8

115.2

23%

88%

13.4

49

Josh Jackson

Kansas

SF

Fr

15.7

119.0

23%

79%

 

50

Maurice Watson Jr.

Creighton

PG

Sr

15.6

112.6

27%

85%

14.1

51

Bryant Crawford

Wake Forest

PG

So

15.6

101.9

26%

85%

13.8

52

Jordan Woodard

Oklahoma

PG

Sr

15.5

115.8

23%

85%

13.0

53

Monte Morris

Iowa St.

PG

Sr

15.5

121.4

24%

90%

13.8

54

Dennis Smith Jr.

North Carolina St.

PG

Fr

15.4

120.1

22%

87%

 

55

Charles Cooke

Dayton

SG

Sr

15.4

110.9

24%

79%

15.6

56

Josh Hawkinson

Washington St.

PF

Sr

15.4

114.5

22%

82%

15.4

57

ShawnDre' Jones

Richmond

PG

Sr

15.3

116.1

22%

87%

14.7

58

E.C. Matthews

Rhode Island

SG

Sr

15.3

109.2

24%

79%

0.0

59

Obi Enechionyia

Temple

PF

Jr

15.3

111.8

24%

74%

11.0

60

Mike Crawford

Saint Louis

SG

Sr

15.2

105.8

21%

87%

10.3

This tier is heavy on veteran go-to-guys. Wisconsin’s Nigel Hayes (No. 46) is a Big Ten Player of the Year candidate if he bounces back from a junior season in which he struggled as a long-range shooter. Creighton’s Maurice Watson Jr. (No. 50) is a Big East Player of the Year candidate if the Bluejays can stick in the top 25 and his prime competition falls under their projections. Rhode Island’s E.C. Matthews (No. 58), who tore his ACL in the Rams’ season opener last year and missed the rest of the season, is back and should push the Rams into the NCAA tournament.

Rank

Player

Team

Pos.

Year

Proj. PPG

ORtg

Volume

Mins

'15-16 PPG

61

Ja'Quan Newton

Miami FL

PG

Jr

15.0

109.3

27%

79%

10.5

62

Nate Mason

Minnesota

PG

Jr

15.0

109.7

24%

85%

13.8

63

Bryant McIntosh

Northwestern

PG

Jr

15.0

111.3

26%

89%

13.8

64

Damyean Dotson

Houston

SF

Sr

14.9

127.1

20%

80%

13.9

65

Marc Loving

Ohio St.

PF

Sr

14.9

113.8

21%

84%

14.0

66

Henry Caruso

Princeton

F

Sr

14.9

120.3

24%

70%

15.0

67

Antonio Blakeney

LSU

SG

So

14.8

115.4

21%

76%

12.6

68

Pat Birt

Tulsa

SG

Sr

14.8

107.0

23%

76%

12.0

69

Rodney Bullock

Providence

PF

Jr

14.7

99.3

25%

81%

11.4

70

Bryce Alford

UCLA

PG/SG

Sr

14.7

116.5

22%

80%

16.1

71

Shep Garner

Penn St.

PG

Jr

14.7

108.8

24%

84%

14.8

72

Desi Rodriguez

Seton Hall

SF

Jr

14.7

110.5

23%

75%

12.4

73

George King

Colorado

SG/SF

Jr

14.7

109.3

24%

70%

13.6

74

Kris Jenkins

Villanova

SF/PF

Sr

14.6

124.3

21%

75%

13.6

75

Kyle Kuzma

Utah

PF

Jr

14.6

107.6

25%

78%

10.8

76

Billy Garrett Jr.

DePaul

PG

Sr

14.5

108.2

27%

76%

12.6

77

Jermaine Bishop

Saint Louis

PG

So

14.3

99.5

25%

79%

8.9

78

Tra Holder

Arizona St.

PG

Jr

14.3

104.7

25%

79%

14.2

79

Tyler Davis

Texas A&M

C

So

14.3

114.4

24%

70%

11.3

80

Sindarius Thornwell

South Carolina

PG/SG

Sr

14.3

111.3

22%

84%

13.4

This is the next-man-up tier: With Ben Simmons no longer dominating LSU’s offense, sophomore Antonio Blakeney (No. 67) is its likely new scoring leader. After two years as a role player supporting future first-round NBA draft picks, Kyle Kuzma (No. 71) is ready to be Utah’s lead guy in a balanced offense. It’s Rodney Bullock’s (No. 69) turn to do the same at Providence, with Kris Dunn having moved on to the Timberwolves and Ben Bentil to the Celtics.

Rank

Player

Team

Pos.

Year

Proj. PPG

ORtg

Volume

Mins

'15-16 PPG

81

Jalen Brunson

Villanova

PG

So

14.2

115.0

22%

82%

9.6

82

Marcus Foster

Creighton

SG

Jr

14.2

111.3

23%

71%

 

83

Zak Irvin

Michigan

SF

Sr

14.1

110.9

23%

85%

11.8

84

Bonzie Colson, Jr.

Notre Dame

PF

Jr

14.1

123.8

25%

68%

11.1

85

James Demery

Saint Joseph's

SF

Jr

14.1

106.6

21%

86%

8.1

86

Conner Frankamp

Wichita St.

PG

Jr

14.0

123.9

18%

85%

6.1

87

Matt Mobley

St. Bonaventure

SG

Jr

14.0

107.3

23%

75%

 

88

Frank Mason

Kansas

PG

Sr

14.0

120.1

21%

86%

12.9

89

Justin Jackson

North Carolina

SF

Jr

13.9

125.1

22%

74%

12.2

90

Lorenzo Bonam

Utah

PG/SG

Sr

13.9

115.1

21%

86%

10.2

91

Troy Caupain

Cincinnati

PG

Sr

13.9

112.9

22%

86%

13.0

92

Tyler Lydon

Syracuse

PF

So

13.9

112.6

23%

77%

10.1

93

Jared Terrell

Rhode Island

PG/SG

Jr

13.9

109.2

22%

85%

13.6

94

Steve Vasturia

Notre Dame

SG

Sr

13.9

114.2

21%

90%

11.4

95

Seth Allen

Virginia Tech

CG

Sr

13.9

106.1

28%

63%

14.7

96

Austin Nichols

Virginia

SF

Jr

13.8

107.7

25%

71%

 

97

Andrew White III

Syracuse

SF

Sr

13.8

111.5

23%

71%

16.6

98

Trey Kell

San Diego St.

SG/PG

Jr

13.8

109.8

23%

74%

12.6

99

Kerwin Roach, Jr.

Texas

PG

So

13.8

106.6

24%

77%

7.5

100

Lonzo Ball

UCLA

PG

Fr

13.8

116.9

22%

77%

 

Here come the key transfers: Creighton’s Marcus Foster (No. 82) averaged 15.5 points as a Kansas State freshman in 2013–14 and is ready to get his career back on track in Omaha. Andrew White III (No. 97) left Nebraska and graduate-transferred into a situation at Syracuse where he could very well be the leading scorer. Former Memphis power forward Austin Nichols (No. 96) projects to lead a balanced Virginia team in points, as does former Kansas guard Conner Frankamp (No. 86) at Wichita State.