Bowl Projections: Two Big Ten teams enter College Football Playoff after Week 11

Losses by Clemson, Michigan and Washington in Week 11 create room for both Ohio State and Wisconsin in the predicted College Football Playoff field.

It’s a whole new postseason world now.

You can be forgiven if you thought the bowl projections were getting a bit stale in recent weeks. With so much stability in the College Football Playoff picture, there simply weren’t any sweeping changes to mix up the matchups from the Peach Bowl down to the Arizona Bowl.

All of that has of course changed after No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Washington all suffered their first losses of the season on Saturday. Only Clemson hung onto its playoff spot of those three, making room for two other Big Ten teams to leap into the projected national semifinal field.

As things stand, the Big Ten is well-positioned to be the first conference with multiple playoff teams. Assuming Penn State can beat Rutgers and Michigan State (likely), Wisconsin can beat Purdue and Minnesota (also likely) and Ohio State can beat Michigan (looking more likely after the Wolverines’ loss and quarterback Wilton Speight’s injury), the Nittany Lions will play the Badgers in the Big Ten title game. That creates an excellent opportunity for both the winner of that game and 11–1 Ohio State to finish in the top four.

Wisconsin’s rise into a playoff favorite and Washington’s ouster sets in motion a host of changes through the bowl projections. But before we get to the full projections, a reminder about how the college football postseason works. The College Football Playoff selection committee will choose the teams for the two playoff semifinals—the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl this year—and the four other marquee bowls that are part of the New Year’s Six. The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion must play in one of those six games, and other games, such as the Rose Bowl, have conference tie-ins.

The remaining bowl games are also governed by agreements with the 10 FBS conferences, though if a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its tie-ins, that bowl can select another conference’s representative. In some cases, leagues will pool together their bowl tie-ins to create more flexibility. The Music City Bowl, for example, can choose either an ACC or Big Ten team to face an SEC opponent.

And lastly, just because a bowl may be designated to have a particular order of selection among a conference’s teams doesn’t mean it has to adhere exactly to the standings. The Alamo Bowl’s second choice among Pac-12 teams, for example, does not require it to choose the No. 2 available team from the Pac-12 standings or from the playoff committee’s rankings. Other factors, such as location, the matchup, the size of a school’s fan base and the willingness of that fan base to travel, can influence bowls’ decisions.

New Year's Six bowls

Bowl	Date	Location	Matchup	Pick
Peach (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Atlanta	TBD vs. TBD	Alabama vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Glendale, Ariz.	TBD vs. TBD	Clemson vs. Ohio State
Orange	Dec. 30	Miami	ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND	Louisville vs. Penn State
Cotton	Jan. 2	Arlington, Texas	TBD vs. TBD	Western Michigan vs. Colorado
Rose	Jan. 2	Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Michigan vs. Washington
Sugar	Jan. 2	New Orleans	SEC vs. Big 12	Florida vs. Oklahoma

Major shuffle at top of Power Rankings after chaotic Week 11

bowl	date	location	matchup	pick
New Mexico	Dec. 17	Albuquerque, N.M.	C-USA vs. MW	Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico
Las Vegas	Dec. 17	Las Vegas	MW vs. Pac-12	Boise State vs. Arizona State
Camellia	Dec. 17	Montgomery, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Eastern Michigan vs. Idaho
Cure	Dec. 17	Orlando, Fla.	AAC vs. Sun Belt	UCF vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
New Orleans	Dec. 17	New Orleans	Sun Belt vs. C-USA	Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
Miami Beach	Dec. 19	Miami	AAC vs. MAC	Tulsa vs. Central Michigan
Boca Raton	Dec. 20	Boca Raton, Fla.	AAC vs. C-USA	Memphis vs. Louisiana Tech
Poinsettia	Dec. 21	San Diego	BYU vs. MW	BYU vs. San Diego State
Famous Idaho Potato	Dec. 22	Boise, Idaho	MAC vs. MW	Ohio vs. Wyoming
Bahamas	Dec. 23	Nassau, Bahamas	AAC vs. MAC	SMU vs. Miami (OH)
Armed Forces	Dec. 23	Fort Worth, Texas	Big 12 vs. Navy	Kansas State vs. Navy
Dollar General	Dec. 23	Mobile, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Toledo vs. Troy
Hawaii	Dec. 24	Honolulu	C-USA vs. MW	UTSA vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg	Dec. 26	St. Petersburg, Fla.	ACC vs. AAC	Southern Miss* vs. South Florida
Quick Lane	Dec. 26	Detroit	ACC vs. Big Ten	NC State vs. Maryland
Independence	Dec. 26	Shreveport, La.	ACC vs. SEC	Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky
Heart of Dallas	Dec. 27	Dallas	Big Ten vs. C-USA	South Alabama* vs. Old Dominion
Military	Dec. 27	Annapolis, Md.	ACC vs. AAC	Akron* vs. Temple
Holiday	Dec. 27	San Diego	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Minnesota vs. Stanford
Cactus	Dec. 27	Phoenix	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Texas vs. Army*
Pinstripe	Dec. 28	New York	ACC vs. Big Ten	Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern
Russell Athletic	Dec. 28	Orlando, Fla.	ACC vs. Big 12	Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Foster Farms	Dec. 28	Santa Clara, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Indiana vs. USC
Texas	Dec. 28	Houston	Big 12 vs. SEC	TCU vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham	Dec. 29	Birmingham, Ala.	AAC vs. SEC	Houston vs. South Carolina
Belk	Dec. 29	Charlotte, N.C.	ACC vs. SEC	North Carolina vs. LSU
Alamo	Dec. 29	San Antonio	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	West Virginia vs. Utah
Arizona	Dec. 30	Tucson, Ariz.	MW vs. Sun Belt	Colorado State vs. Arkansas State
Liberty	Dec. 30	Memphis, Tenn.	Big 12 vs. SEC	Baylor vs. Ole Miss
Sun	Dec. 30	El Paso, Texas	ACC vs. Pac-12	Wake Forest vs. Washington State
Music City	Dec. 30	Nashville, Tenn.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Iowa vs. Georgia
TaxSlayer	Dec. 31	Jacksonville, Fla.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Miami vs. Auburn
Citrus	Dec. 31	Orlando, Fla.	Big Ten/ACC vs. SEC	Florida State vs. Tennessee
Outback	Jan. 2	Tampa, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Nebraska vs. Arkansas

*Replacement team