Bowl Projections: Predicted matchups for the playoff, every bowl after Week 12

Washington moves back into the projected College Football Playoff field while 5–7 teams fill the bottom tier in the post-Week 12 Bowl Projections.

It’s around this time that bowl projections start to get a little strange. With 40 bowl games, college football needs 80 teams to hit the normal bowl-eligibility threshold (six wins in 12 games) to avoid having to stretch its limits of what qualifies a team for the postseason.

That’s not likely to happen this year, as was the case last year, too. Barring a rash of upsets to close out the season, there won’t be 80 teams this season who meet the regular standard of bowl eligibility. I’m projecting that 75 teams will.

So who gets those other five spots? If Hawaii beats UMass on Saturday, the Rainbow Warriors will finish with six wins in 13 games, making them the first alternate in the bowl picture. Even if Army loses to Navy, the Black Knights will have six wins, but two of those came against FCS foes, one more than typically allowed for bowl eligibility. That won’t matter much this year, so Army’s victory over Morgan State this week should secure its berth in the postseason.

As for the other three spots, it comes down to which 5–7 teams score the highest in the NCAA’s Academic Progress Rate. That sends Vanderbilt, Boston College and UCLA to bowl games (assuming the Bruins beat Cal on Saturday).  So congrats, Commodores, Eagles and Bruins, your losing records won’t deny you bowl berths this year.

•​ Coaching Carousel Update: Who will replace Charlie Strong at Texas?

Before we get to the full projections, a reminder about how the college football bowl selection works. The College Football Playoff selection committee will choose the teams for the two playoff semifinals—the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl this year—and the four other marquee bowls that are part of the New Year’s Six. The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion must play in one of those six games, and other games, such as the Rose Bowl, have conference tie-ins.

The remaining bowl games are also governed by agreements with the 10 FBS conferences, though if a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its tie-ins, that bowl can select another conference’s representative. In some cases, leagues will pool together their bowl tie-ins to create more flexibility. The Music City Bowl, for example, can choose either an ACC or Big Ten team to face an SEC opponent.

And lastly, just because a bowl may be designated to have a particular order of selection among a conference’s teams doesn’t mean it has to adhere exactly to the standings. The Alamo Bowl’s second choice among Pac-12 teams, for example, does not require it to choose the No. 2 available team from the Pac-12 standings or from the playoff committee’s rankings. Other factors, such as location, the matchup, the size of a school’s fan base and the willingness of that fan base to travel, can influence bowls’ decisions.

New Year's Six bowls

Bowl	Date	Location	Matchup	Pick
Peach (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Atlanta	TBD vs. TBD	Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Glendale, Ariz.	TBD vs. TBD	Clemson vs. Ohio State
Orange	Dec. 30	Miami	ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND	Louisville vs. Michigan
Cotton	Jan. 2	Arlington, Texas	TBD vs. TBD	Western Michigan vs. USC
Rose	Jan. 2	Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Wisconsin vs. Colorado
Sugar	Jan. 2	New Orleans	SEC vs. Big 12	Tennessee vs. Oklahoma

Colorado rises in Power Rankings after Week 12

bowl	date	location	matchup	pick
New Mexico	Dec. 17	Albuquerque, N.M.	C-USA vs. MW	UTSA vs. Wyoming
Las Vegas	Dec. 17	Las Vegas	MW vs. Pac-12	San Diego State vs. UCLA
Camellia	Dec. 17	Montgomery, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Eastern Michigan vs. Arkansas State
Cure	Dec. 17	Orlando, Fla.	AAC vs. Sun Belt	UCF vs. South Alabama
New Orleans	Dec. 17	New Orleans	Sun Belt vs. C-USA	Appalachian State vs. Louisiana Tech
Miami Beach	Dec. 19	Miami	AAC vs. MAC	Tulsa vs. Central Michigan
Boca Raton	Dec. 20	Boca Raton, Fla.	AAC vs. C-USA	Memphis vs. Old Dominion
Poinsettia	Dec. 21	San Diego	BYU vs. MW	BYU vs. Air Force
Famous Idaho Potato	Dec. 22	Boise, Idaho	MAC vs. MW	Ohio vs. Boise State
Bahamas	Dec. 23	Nassau, Bahamas	AAC vs. MAC	SMU vs. Miami (OH)
Armed Forces	Dec. 23	Fort Worth, Texas	Big 12 vs. Navy	North Texas* vs. Navy
Dollar General	Dec. 23	Mobile, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Toledo vs. Troy
Hawaii	Dec. 24	Honolulu	C-USA vs. MW	Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico
St. Petersburg	Dec. 26	St. Petersburg, Fla.	ACC vs. AAC	Vanderbilt* vs. Houston
Quick Lane	Dec. 26	Detroit	ACC vs. Big Ten	Hawaii* vs. Indiana
Independence	Dec. 26	Shreveport, La.	ACC vs. SEC	Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky
Heart of Dallas	Dec. 27	Dallas	Big Ten vs. C-USA	Maryland vs. Western Kentucky
Military	Dec. 27	Annapolis, Md.	ACC vs. AAC	Boston College vs. Temple
Holiday	Dec. 27	San Diego	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Penn State vs. Stanford
Cactus	Dec. 27	Phoenix	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Kansas State vs. Army*
Pinstripe	Dec. 28	New York	ACC vs. Big Ten	Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern
Russell Athletic	Dec. 28	Orlando, Fla.	ACC vs. Big 12	Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Foster Farms	Dec. 28	Santa Clara, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Minnesota vs. Washington State
Texas	Dec. 28	Houston	Big 12 vs. SEC	TCU vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham	Dec. 29	Birmingham, Ala.	AAC vs. SEC	South Florida vs. South Carolina
Belk	Dec. 29	Charlotte, N.C.	ACC vs. SEC	North Carolina vs. LSU
Alamo	Dec. 29	San Antonio	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	West Virginia vs. Utah
Arizona	Dec. 30	Tucson, Ariz.	MW vs. Sun Belt	Colorado State vs. Idaho
Liberty	Dec. 30	Memphis, Tenn.	Big 12 vs. SEC	Baylor vs. Ole Miss
Sun	Dec. 30	El Paso, Texas	ACC vs. Pac-12	Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Music City	Dec. 30	Nashville, Tenn.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Iowa vs. Georgia
TaxSlayer	Dec. 31	Jacksonville, Fla.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Miami vs. Arkansas
Citrus	Dec. 31	Orlando, Fla.	Big Ten/ACC vs. SEC	Florida State vs. Auburn
Outback	Jan. 2	Tampa, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Nebraska vs. Florida

*Replacement team