Forde-Yard Dash: Bowl Season Edition
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football this bowl season, where some cases of COVID-19 at Tennessee alleviated the outrage of a bowl season without Army:
… AND NOW, THE FITTINGLY WEIRD FINAL CHAPTER
Decades from now, the children will not believe their ears when we try to explain what the 2020 college football bowl season was like.
“The Rose Bowl was played in Texas, kids. So was the New Mexico Bowl. California had no bowls at all. … A bunch of bowls were canceled, including the hardy old Sun Bowl. Times were tough. Every team’s charter jet flew uphill both ways. … There was no Lawry’s Beef Bowl, no bowling matches between teams, no visits to amusement parks, and almost no opportunities for players to be suspended for breaking curfew after going out on the town until 3 a.m. …”
“Yes, there really was a 2–8 team in a bowl game, and a 3–7 team, and even losing teams from Conference USA. But not 9–2 Army—at least until the virus knocked the 3–7 Volunteers out of the Liberty Bowl. The sport should have been ashamed of itself for that, but it had no shame that year. … “
“Many teams stopped their seasons and declined a bowl game—even Nebraska, which had whined for months like a spoiled four-year-old about wanting to play games. You couldn’t blame anyone for declining bowl bids; the season was a grind and lost its joy along the way for many participants. … Only two Pac-12 teams went bowling; the rest packed it in. … The first bowl game was played two days after the last regular-season games, and one day after the full bowl lineup was announced. … They made us watch North Texas in that first game, which nearly ruined bowl season for everyone. … “
“No, the Infamous Thrown Shoe Game was in the regular season, not a bowl game. …”
“Nobody even knew who the Heisman Trophy winner was during bowl season, so there was none of the usual grumbling about the media picking the wrong guy. … Coastal Carolina was just becoming a national power then, so it had to go play in something called the Cure Bowl, even with an 11–0 record. … Some of the rankings and decisions by the College Football Playoff selection committee were so bad, the name ‘Barta’ was banned from public mention in certain college towns. … ”
“It was even harder than usual to predict how the games would turn out, with smaller rosters and some teams that really didn’t want to be there. … No, it’s not true that Ohio State requested to start every possession on the other team’s 25-yard line and to play with 12 men on the field at all times—that didn’t happen until the next season. … “
Let’s go to the picks. Hell no, The Dash is not guaranteeing anything if you use them in your office pool:
FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL (1)
Tulane (6–5) vs. Nevada (6–2)
Where: Boise, Idaho
When: Dec. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET
Why: Because the potatoes are famous, and must be celebrated.
Line: Tulane by three.
Dash pick: Nevada 38, Tulane 35. Underrated Wolf Pack quarterback Carson Strong gets to tear into the No. 10 pass efficiency defense in the 11-team American Athletic Conference. The Dash also doubts that a team from New Orleans that is comprised almost entirely of recruits from the South is going to love a high temperature of 39 degrees in Boise on Tuesday.
BOCA RATON BOWL (2)
UCF (6–3) vs. BYU (10–1)
Where: Boca Raton, oddly enough
When: Dec. 22, 7 p.m.
Why: It is the state of Florida’s duty to bring televised warmth into our homes during the dead of winter.
Line: BYU by seven.
Dash pick: BYU 37, UCF 28. A very good BYU team never did get its shot against a Power 5 opponent, which stinks. But this is a juicy quarterback matchup, with the Cougars’ Zach Wilson (3) and the Knights’ Dillon Gabriel tied for third nationally in touchdown passes with 30 each. The difference here is the BYU defense, which is much more solid than a UCF unit that has surrendered 31.4 points per game.
NEW ORLEANS BOWL (4)
Louisiana Tech (5–4) vs. Georgia Southern (7–5)
Where: New Orleans, believe it or not
When: Dec. 23, 3 p.m.
Why: TV inventory.
Line: Georgia Southern by 6 1/2
Dash pick: Louisiana Tech 41, Georgia Southern 40. Skip Holtz is 6–0 in bowls, including three straight upset wins. That’s enough for The Dash to ride with Tech, despite the bad matchup of a porous run defense against one of the most committed and productive running games in the country. This is going to have to be a case of simply outscoring the Eagles.
Scott Taetsch/USA TODAY Sports
MONTGOMERY BOWL (5)
Memphis (7–3) vs. Florida Atlantic (5–3)
Where: Montgomery, Ala.
When: Dec. 23, 7 p.m.
Why: So the AAC can start piling up bowl wins and giving commissioner Mike Aresco more fodder for ripping the establishment.
Line: Memphis by eight.
Dash pick: Memphis 31, FAU 20. The Owls are limping through December, losing twice by a combined score of 65–34. Their record outside the state of Florida this season: 0–3. Time for the Tigers to end a five-year bowl losing streak and send senior quarterback Brady White out on a winning note.
NEW MEXICO BOWL (6)
Hawaii (4–4) vs. Houston (3–4)
Where: Frisco, Texas
When: Dec. 24, 3:30 p.m.
Why: Because America could not go a year without the New Mexico Bowl, even if it had to be transplanted to Texas.
Line: Houston by 13.
Dash pick: Houston 40, Hawaii 24. The Rainbow Warriors rank 116th nationally in run defense. The Cougars aren’t great in the run game, but should give Hawaii a steady dose of zone read. Pound the rock, Holgo, and reap the benefits. And keep in mind that the last time Houston had a bad bowl performance, booster Tilman Fertitta got involved and fired the coach.
CAMELLIA BOWL (7)
Marshall (7–2) vs. Buffalo (5–1)
Where: Montgomery, Ala.
When: Dec. 25, 2:30 p.m.
Why: To give two good teams that ended the season on sour notes a chance to spend Christmas in the fifth-best city in Alabama. That’s why.
Line: Buffalo by three.
Dash pick: Buffalo 24, Marshall 14. Six days between games doesn’t seem like enough to fix whatever is ailing Thundering Herd quarterback Grant Wells. His stats the last two games: 26 of 58 for 303 yards, two touchdowns, five interceptions. Marshall does have the run defense to at least theoretically slow down Buffalo’s dynamic tandem of Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks, but not enough offensive firepower. If this coaching carousel ends with Lance Leipold still at Buffalo, that’s a big win for the Bulls and a miss by some other programs.
GASPARILLA BOWL (8)
South Carolina (2–8) vs. UAB (6–3)
Where: Tampa
When: Dec. 26, noon.
Why: To hate-watch a 2–8 bowl team.
Line: UAB by 4 1/2.
Dash pick: UAB 21, South Carolina 13. What, pray tell, are we doing here? The Gamecocks straggle in on a six-game losing streak, with an average margin of defeat in that stretch of 24.8 points. Embarrassing. The Blazers aren’t great, but they just won the C-USA championship for the second time in three seasons and it appears they are retaining miracle-worker coach Bill Clark for at least another year.
CURE BOWL (9)
Liberty (9–1) vs. Coastal Carolina (11–0)
Where: Orlando
When: Dec. 26, noon.
Why: To keep two good teams from having a chance to take down Power 5 opponents.
Line: Coastal Carolina by six.
Dash pick: Coastal Carolina 28, Liberty 21. This game is like when the men’s basketball selection committee pits two great mid-majors against each other, depriving them of the chance to take down power programs. Alas, the bowl system is what it is. The Chanticleers are playing in their first bowl game, the Flames in their second, and both programs have to be tickled that they still have their coaches. This is a good matchup of under-appreciated quarterbacks: Coastal freshman Grayson McCall (10) is sixth nationally in pass efficiency, fourth among QBs who played more than six games. Liberty junior Malik Willis is 11th nationally in total offense, producing 316 yards per game. Proud Roosters are plus-11 turnover margin on the season, while Liberty is plus-two. A well-timed takeaway could be the difference in getting Coastal to 12–0.
FIRST RESPONDER BOWL (11)
Louisiana (9–1) vs. UTSA (7–4)
Where: Dallas
When: Dec. 26, 3:30 p.m.
Why: To honor the Original Opt-Out Bowl; this is the game that was called off in 2018 on account of lightning.
Line: Louisiana by 13.
Dash pick: Louisiana 35, UTSA 17. As long as Ragin’ Cajuns coach Billy Napier removed the 35-yard intentional safety from the playbook, his team should be fine here. Napier pulling his name out of the Auburn search was big in terms of maintaining program momentum, and a bowl victory would only add to that. Louisiana is in the top 10 nationally in yards allowed per play (4.78) and it has allowed decreasing yardage every month of the season.
LENDINGTREE BOWL (12)
Western Kentucky (5–6) vs. Georgia State (5–4)
Where: Mobile, Ala.
When: Dec. 26, 3:30 p.m.
Why: Not a single good reason.
Line: Georgia State by 4 1/2.
Dash pick: Georgia State 27, Western Kentucky 21. WKU beat the bad teams and lost to the good teams on its schedule. GSU played a lot of close games, but hasn’t played any games in nearly a month. This is a coin flip, and it just came up Panthers.
Nell Redmond/USA TODAY Sports
CHEEZ-IT BOWL (13)
Oklahoma State (7–3) vs. Miami (8–2)
Where: Orlando
When: Dec. 29, 5:30 p.m.
Why: Because the talking cheese wheel says so.
Line: Oklahoma State by three.
Dash pick: Miami 34, Oklahoma State 31. Cheez-It took its naming rights from Arizona to Florida, just another unsettling development in these tumultuous times. Although the Hurricanes have had a pair of defensive players opt out, they still have quarterback D’Eriq King (14) and he will exploit a Cowboys defense that was mauled in three of its final four games. This result also assumes that Miami has found run-defense religion after being trampled by North Carolina on Dec. 12.
ALAMO BOWL (15)
Texas (6–3) vs. Colorado (4–1)
Where: San Antonio
When: Dec. 29, 9 p.m.
Why: To fulfill the annual cycle of Texas bowl win followed by unreasonable Texas offseason optimism.
Line: Texas by 13 1/2.
Dash pick: Texas 29, Colorado 14. Tom Herman and Sam Ehlinger are an undefeated combination in bowl games. Longhorns were doing less dumb stuff at year’s end, averaging only five penalties over the last three games and turning the ball over only once in the last four. A solid whipping from Utah brought the Buffaloes back to earth after that 4–0 start, and losing star linebacker Nate Landman to injury will resonate. Texas is not back, but it will easily finish 7–3.
DUKE’S MAYO BOWL (16)
Wake Forest (4–4) vs. Wisconsin (3–3)
Where: Charlotte
When: Dec. 30, noon.
Why: Big Mayo demands it.
Line: Wisconsin by seven.
Dash pick: Wisconsin 26, Wake Forest 17. Wake has a plus-13 turnover margin and has only given the ball away three times in eight games. That’s worth keeping in mind, but so is the fact that the Demon Deacons are soft against the run and Paul Chryst might be ready to make a renewed commitment to pounding the rock after this team has been pretty ordinary in that department.
MUSIC CITY BOWL (17)
Iowa (6–2) vs. Missouri (5–5)
Where: Nashville
When: Dec. 30, 4 p.m.
Why: To start the SEC–Big Ten bowl matchups that lead to sweeping judgments about both leagues.
Line: Iowa by 14.
Dash pick: Iowa 37, Missouri 21. If the Hawkeyes still have their best offensive players after pausing due to COVID-19 issues, they will be able to run the ball with impunity. Mizzou’s defense was gouged by Arkansas and Georgia, then gave up 151 rushing yards to the worst running team in America, Mississippi State. Or the Hawkeyes could throw it against a secondary that has been using converted offensive players in the last couple of games. This wraps a very good season for an Iowa program that seemed on the brink of splitting apart in the summer.
COTTON BOWL (18)
Oklahoma (8–2) vs. Florida (8–3)
Where: Arlington, Texas
When: Dec. 30, 8 p.m.
Why: A matchup of top-10 teams in this bowl slate is not to be missed.
Line: Florida by three.
Dash pick: Florida 38, Oklahoma 31. The Sooners’ defense has improved as the season progressed, and it won’t have to contend with superstar tight end Kyle Pitts (and maybe others), who has opted out of the game. But if Kyle Trask (19) suits up for the Gators, he will be the best quarterback Oklahoma has faced since Joe Burrow burned it to the ground in the playoff last season. After taking on Alabama, the Oklahoma offense will seem a bit pedestrian. The Dash is also all for Marco Wilson making a key interception in this game.
ARMED FORCES BOWL (20)
Tulsa (6–2) vs. Mississippi State (3–7)
Where: Fort Worth
When: Dec. 31, noon.
Why: Because we just didn’t get enough Mississippi State football during the regular season.
Line: Tulsa by 2 1/2.
Dash pick: Tulsa 23, Mississippi State 17. The Golden Hurricane rank seventh nationally in yards allowed per play and have the cornerbacks to make passing difficult for Mike Leach’s Air Raid on Training Wheels offense. And then there is monster linebacker Zaven Collins (21), who has produced four interceptions, two returned for touchdowns, 11.5 tackles for loss, four sacks and a forced fumble. An AAC team beating an SEC team would help mend Aresco’s broken heart.
Neville E. Guard/USA TODAY Sports
ARIZONA BOWL (22)
Ball State (6–1) vs. San Jose State (7–0)
Where: Tucson
When: Dec. 31, 2 p.m.
Why: For the awkwardness of San Jose State’s Brent Brennan (23) coaching a game in the stadium of the school (Arizona) that seems very interested in making him its next head coach.
Line: San Jose State by seven.
Dash pick: San Jose State 30, Ball State 19. The Spartans’ full body of work remains under-appreciated. Not only are they undefeated, but every victory has been by double digits—no other team can say that this season. And not only that, but they have been playing for weeks on the road due to COVID-19 restrictions in Santa Clara County. Nick Starkel has been a great pickup at quarterback, but even more impressive has been an SJSU defense that hasn’t given up more than 24 points. Ball State has had a breakthrough season and won over doubters by upsetting Buffalo in the MAC title game, but the Spartans are on a mission to record their first unbeaten season since 1939.
LIBERTY BOWL (24)
West Virginia (5–4) vs. Army (9–2)
Where: Memphis
When: Dec. 31, 4 p.m.
Why: To honor Tennessee for getting the hell out of the way and creating a spot for Army—the highlight of 2020 for the Volunteers.
Line: TBD.
Dash pick: Army 21, West Virginia 20. Justice for Army! The Mountaineers were 5–0 in Morgantown, 0–4 elsewhere—and this one is elsewhere. They have a pretty solid run defense, but the Army offense is a completely different animal. With a compressed bowl prep and Christmas smack in the middle—the Cadets weren’t the opponent until 10 days before kickoff—the opportunity is there for Army to swallow the game with its ball control and stubborn defense.
TEXAS BOWL (25)
Arkansas (3–7) vs. TCU (6–4)
Where: Houston
When: Dec. 31, 8 p.m.
Why: So America can gaze in appreciation at Sam Pittman’s hog mask and count how many times Gary Patterson hitches his britches.
Line: Arkansas by six.
Dash pick: Arkansas 27, TCU 24. This pick presupposes that the Razorbacks are excited about playing their first bowl in four seasons and bring some of the juice that has been missing in the last few games. TCU was an improving team at season’s end, with five-star freshman running back Zach Evans finally hit his stride late. But if Arkansas can make the Horned Frogs throw the ball, it will take them out of their comfort zone. TCU pass attempts in its six wins: 21.8. TCU pass attempts in its four losses: 35.5.
PEACH BOWL (26)
Cincinnati (9–0) vs. Georgia (7–2)
Where: Atlanta
When: Jan. 1, noon.
Why: To give the disrespected Bearcats a chance to show they were worthy of more respect than the empty platitudes tumbling out of Gary Barta’s mouth.
Line: Georgia by seven.
Dash pick: Cincinnati 23, Georgia 21. This is a statement game for Luke Fickell (27) and the Bearcats, and they have the talent and motivation to make it. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are expected to have as many as eight players opt out, and while nobody has recruited better than Kirby Smart in recent years, those losses will matter. J.T. Daniels has been great since taking over at quarterback the last three games, but he’s also facing by far the best pass defense he’s seen this season. Cincinnati is second nationally in pass efficiency defense and tied for second in interceptions with 15.
CITRUS BOWL (28)
Auburn (6–4) vs. Northwestern (6–2)
Where: Orlando
When: Jan. 1, 1 p.m.
Why: To give the Auburn boosters in love with defensive coordinator Kevin Steele one last chance to swoon over their guy.
Line: Northwestern by 3 1/2.
Dash pick: Northwestern 24, Auburn 19. We know the Tigers will have an interim coach; we’ll see whether the NFL will be in hot pursuit of the Wildcats’ Pat Fitzgerald. Given Northwestern’s ability to fluster Justin Fields in the Big Ten championship game, Bo Nix could be in for a long afternoon of his own. But the Wildcats will have to do better tackling Tank Bigsby than they did Trey Sermon.
GATOR BOWL (29)
North Carolina State (8–3) vs. Kentucky (4–6)
Where: Jacksonville
When: Jan. 2, noon.
Why: Because they’ve played the Gator Bowl every damn year since 1946, and they’re not going to stop now.
Line: Kentucky by three.
Dash pick: North Carolina State 24, Kentucky 21. This is the first time in a long time that the Wildcats have been favored in a bowl, and it doesn’t make a lot of sense. Their wins are over teams with a combined record of 8–31. The Wolfpack run defense has been exposed at times this season, and that is the strength of Kentucky’s prehistoric offense. But NC State can score a bit behind quarterback Bailey Hockman.
OUTBACK BOWL (30)
Mississippi (4–5) vs. Indiana (6–1)
Where: Tampa
When: Jan. 2, 12:30 p.m.
Why: To give the aggrieved Hoosiers a chance to work off some frustration.
Line: Indiana by seven.
Dash pick: Indiana 45, Mississippi 31. Tom Allen (31) has done a lot of things at IU, but he hasn’t won a bowl game—no coach of the Hoosiers has since 1991. That’s about to change. The Rebels do not play defense, and in a bowl-game setting it’s easy to imagine Lane Kiffin going even more YOLO than usual and embracing a shootout. Now consider this: Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral had a six-interception game against Arkansas and a five-interception game against LSU—and he’s now facing the team that led the nation in interceptions with 17, in just seven games.
FIESTA BOWL (32)
Oregon (4–2) vs. Iowa State (8–3)
Where: Glendale, Ariz.
When: Jan. 2, 4 p.m.
Why: Because the Pac-12 champion couldn’t very easily back out of a bowl game.
Line: Iowa State by 4 1/2.
Dash pick: Iowa State 28, Oregon 23. The Ducks won the Pac-12 title game because USC QB Kedon Slovis gave it to them with three interceptions. Iowa State QB Brock Purdy is capable of doing the same (three picks against Oklahoma and Baylor this season), but this looks like a game where Breece Hall can carry the load on the ground and keep Purdy from having to chuck it 40 times. The Pac-12 will end 2020 with zero bowl victories.
Brianna Paciorka/Pool/News Sentinel/USA Today Sports
ORANGE BOWL (33)
Texas A&M (8–1) vs. North Carolina (8–3)
Where: Miami
When: Jan. 2, 8 p.m.
Why: So the Aggies can win and then complain bitterly about Notre Dame.
Line: Texas A&M by six.
Dash pick: Texas A&M 38, North Carolina 21. The Aggies will kick a late field goal just to win by a wider margin than the 14 the Fighting Irish managed against the Tar Heels, and Jimbo Fisher (34) will fast-talk his way through a postgame rant about his team being left out of the playoff. With multiple key opt-outs for the Tar Heels, their first major bowl appearance since the 1950 Cotton Bowl could go quite poorly.
ROSE BOWL (35)
Alabama (11–0) vs. Notre Dame (10–1)
Where: Arlington, Texas. Which is just unsettling.
When: Jan. 1, 4 p.m.
Why: The CFP bylaws say Alabama has to have a semifinal opponent.
Line: Alabama by 19 1/2.
Dash pick: Alabama 45, Notre Dame 21. This won’t be as bad as the 2012 BCS championship game between the two, because that isn’t possible. Still, it won’t be good. If the Fighting Irish thought the ACC championship game was humbling, well, this could be something of a re-run. They were susceptible to big plays in that game—and no offense delivers more big plays than Alabama’s, with DeVonta Smith (36) impossible to contain. They also couldn’t stop Clemson’s running game—and Najee Harris would like to say hello.
SUGAR BOWL (37)
Clemson (10–1) vs. Ohio State (6–0)
Where: New Orleans
When: Jan. 1, 8 p.m.
Why: To give the Buckeyes another shot at dream killer Trevor Lawrence.
Line: Clemson by 7 1/2.
Dash pick: Clemson 37, Ohio State 20. These two staged a close, dramatic, controversial game last year in the playoff semis. This will not be a repeat of that, other than Clemson winning. Trevor Lawrence (38) was great in that game, and could be better against a weaker Buckeyes defense in 2020 than we saw in 2019. It’s also fair to wonder whether some teams have figured out Justin Fields. He’s a great talent but holds the ball forever, slow in his progressions and susceptible to blitzing. Now, Fields also can beat a blitz because he is incredibly difficult to tackle, but Northwestern and Indiana forced him into mistakes. And nobody is better at dialing up pressure than Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (39)
TBD. But for purposes of this exercise, let’s say Alabama vs. Clemson.
Where: Miami
When: Jan. 11.
Why: Because if we’ve gotten this far in this absurd season, we might as well finish it.
Line: TBD.
Dash pick: Alabama 41, Clemson 38. This evens the CFP championship game series record between the two at 2–2 and further cements Nick Saban (40) as the greatest coach of all time. He’s the best in normal years, and in the extremely abnormal ones, too.
