Bracket Watch: Big Wins Help Oklahoma Surge Up the Seed Lines
February is here, which means every game starts to mean more as opportunities dwindle to prove your worth to the men's NCAA tournament selection committee. Teams like Oklahoma and Florida made a statement in last weekend's SEC/Big 12 Challenge with big wins over ranked opponents. How have recent games impacted the field of 68? Sports Illustrated’s Bracket Watch breaks down who’s in, who’s out and who will be sweating come Selection Sunday.
On the Bubble:
Generally, the bubble did itself no favors last week. Stanford blew some of the goodwill it had earned with wins over UCLA and Arizona by falling to a bad Arizona State team. Others on the right side of the cut line right now, like Colorado State and Arkansas, missed opportunities for needle-moving wins over the weekend.
However, teams on the outside looking in failed to capitalize. Marquette and Providence each lost very winnable games against teams in the bottom four of the Big East, and Pittsburgh’s embarrassing blowout loss to Notre Dame knocked it out of the conversation. Even Duke, whose recent wins over Georgia Tech and Clemson earned it some bubble looks, blew any buzz it had by losing to a subpar Miami team. The outskirts of the bubble are so weak right now that a pair of teams that are under .500 for the season in Marquette and Penn State are currently on the fringes of consideration.
Last Four Byes:
Saint Louis
North Carolina
Loyola Chicago
Stanford
Last Four In:
Seton Hall
Colorado State
Arkansas
Maryland
First Four Out:
Utah State
Indiana
Georgia Tech
Richmond
Next Four Out:
VCU
Western Kentucky
Marquette
Penn State
Alonzo Adams/USA TODAY Sports
Gonzaga Region:
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M/NC A&T
No. 8 USC vs. No. 9 Boise State
No. 5 Missouri vs. No. 12 UAB
No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 13 Winthrop
No. 6 Kansas vs. No. 11 Stanford
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Siena
No. 7. Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 St. Bonaventure
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 UC Irvine
One stat that highlights the parity in men's college basketball right now: The teams seeded 2–6 in this region all lost in the last week. With virtually everyone outside of Gonzaga and Baylor beating one another up, it’s important not to overreact too much to individual losses. In the bigger picture, water tends to find its level. Still, that provides an opportunity for a good team to get hot at the right time and skyrocket through the rankings. Alabama stays on the No. 2 line despite its loss to Oklahoma because I believe its impending SEC title will be looked upon kindly by the committee, and Virginia could get a similar bump if it closes out the ACC title.
Baylor Region:
No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 LIU Brooklyn/Montana State
No. 8 Rutgers vs. No. 9 Xavier
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Toledo
No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Belmont
No. 6 Purdue vs. No. 11 North Carolina
No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Navy
No. 7 Colorado vs. No. 10 LSU
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Northeastern
No team rose more in recent days than Oklahoma, whose wins over Texas and Alabama completely transformed its résumé. And while the Sooners couldn’t finish off an incredible week on the road at Texas Tech, I feel good at this point about Oklahoma as a top-four seed come March. Meanwhile, Saint Louis remains an interesting team to track after Friday’s road game at Richmond was called off due to COVID-19 issues. The Billikens are currently scheduled to play only 10 of 20 A-10 games, and their win over NC State isn’t aging as well as hoped. One bad loss could put Saint Louis in jeopardy of missing the Big Dance.
Michigan Region:
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 South Dakota
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 UConn
No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 12 Maryland/Colorado State
No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 13 Abilene Christian
No. 6 Florida vs. No. 11 Loyola Chicago
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Liberty
No. 7 Minnesota vs. No. 10 Clemson
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Grand Canyon
A week ago, Rutgers appeared to be in deep trouble after losing five in a row to start 3–6 in the Big Ten. But three straight wins have re-cemented the Scarlet Knights’ place in the field of 68 with just over a month to go in the Big Ten regular season. A pair of comfortable wins over Michigan State and Northwestern may not individually move the needle, but they are the types of wins teams like Rutgers have to stack up to climb the seed list. Then there’s the most interesting team in the field: Loyola Chicago. The Ramblers are now in the top 15 of the NET, KenPom, T-Rank and BPI metrics. How will the committee treat a team with incredible metrics but few quality wins?
Villanova Region:
No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 16 Louisiana
No. 8 Drake vs. No. 9 San Diego State
No. 5 UCLA vs. No. 12 Seton Hall/Arkansas
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 East Tennessee State
No. 6 Virginia Tech vs. No. 11 Saint Louis
No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 14 Vermont
No. 7 Louisville vs. No. 10 BYU
No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 15 Cleveland State
If Virginia Tech wasn’t a complete lock before Saturday, it is now after a big win over rival Virginia. Wins over UVA and Villanova give the Hokies an incredibly strong résumé, and they're a team that could surge up the seed list if they can win some road games coming up. Meanwhile, Seton Hall finds itself in a situation most commonly dealt with by Big Ten teams: quantity of losses. The Pirates have good wins and only one questionable loss, but at 9–8 the margins are thin, and they're set to play their next two games on the road.
Sweeney's full March Madness projection, as of Feb. 2:
