College Football Week 12 Picks: Georgia, Louisville Eye Road Battles
It’s a table-setter to Rivalry Weekend, but don’t even let anyone tell you this is a good slate of college football. What’s better is the rivalry currently going on in our SI Picks contest. We’re down to the wire, and Pat Forde’s flawless week has seen him open up a slim lead.
All lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook. Last week: Forde 5–0, Johnson 3–2. Season: Forde 32-25-2, Johnson 29-28-2.
No. 10 Louisville (-1) vs. Miami
Johnson: Louisville. I think a focused Louisville team clamps down on the Canes who have QB issues aplenty. Too many to overcome in this matchup.
Forde: Louisville. The Cardinals got their near-disaster experience out of the way last week against Virginia. Then they got two extra days to prepare and rest up after that Thursday night game, which should put some extra bounce in banged-up running back Jawhar Jordan and receiver Jamari Thrash. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are coming off a 60-minute rivalry brawl with Florida State and will switch back to starter-backup-starter Tyler Van Dyke at quarterback after an injury to Emory Williams. The Cardinals can come close to clinching a spot in the ACC championship game with a win here, so the motivational edge is theirs as well.
Beck has shown improvement all season long in Georgia’s potent offense.
John Bazemore/AP
No. 1 Georgia (-10.5) vs. No. 18 Tennessee
Johnson: Georgia. The Dawgs didn’t fear this Tennessee offense last year and I think the same holds this go-around, especially because it’s a comparably worse unit. The thing people miss about this Georgia team is they’re built to score with teams. Due to that, I think the Dawgs have their day Saturday.
Forde: Georgia. As the Bulldogs showed last week, this is no time to doubt them. They mauled Ole Miss in every way offensively, with quarterback Carson Beck showcasing his improvement as the season has gone along (it helps having big-play receiver Ladd McConkey healthy). Tennessee was outgained on the ground by 172 yards against Missouri, a shocking number that doesn’t portend well for taking on Georgia. The Bulldogs ran for 300 on Ole Miss on Saturday.
No. 7 Texas (-7.5) vs. Iowa State
Johnson: Texas. This feels a little dicey because of Jonathon Brooks and Texas’s lack of killer instinct in the red zone, but the Horns should be able to get this done against an Iowa State defense that isn’t exactly killer.
Forde: Iowa State. Cyclones at home, playing well, very much in the Big 12 championship game hunt, taking on an opponent they always get up for and have beaten three of the last four years. That 7.5 number is the last enticement. Meanwhile, the Longhorns just lost 1,100-yard rusher Brooks for the season and have labored to win three of their last four. To the disappointment of Iowa State, the weather is expected to be mild and sunny for late November; this is a game in which the Clones probably would have preferred some Midwest sleet.
No. 21 Kansas State (-9) vs. No. 25 Kansas
Johnson: Kansas. Kansas isn’t the greatest defense in college football history, but I do think it can do enough on offense to get the job done in this one and cover a bit of an odd number. It does hinge on Jason Bean’s return, but if that happens it’ll get what it needs.
Forde: Kansas State. I’m uncomfortable with the number, but I’ll lay the points for two reasons. One, Chris Klieman has owned the Jayhawks in his tenure, going 4–0 with an average winning margin of 28.3 points. Two, while Kansas coach Lance Leipold said he’s “optimistic” that quarterback Jason Bean will be cleared to play Saturday, that remains to be seen—and the Jayhawks struggled with true freshman Cole Ballard thrust into the game in an upset loss to Texas Tech.
Kansas’s outlook for Saturday’s game against Kansas State hinges on the availability of Bean.
Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports
No. 23 Oklahoma State (-7) vs. Houston
Johnson: Houston. The Pokes need this one badly. They do have an inexplicable loss in them, though, as they’ve shown twice this season already. Oklahoma State may not be good but it has won the right games so far. Now it has no room for error, but there’s something about this number that’s speaking to me.
Forde: Oklahoma State. The presumption here is that the Cowboys will limit their Bedlam hangover to one week and not two. They absolutely no-showed the game last week at Central Florida but still have everything to play for in terms of the Big 12 race to reach the title game in JerryWorld, so I expect them to resume trying after failing to do so in Orlando. Houston’s performances have been all over the map as well—this is a Dana Holgorsen production, after all—and the Cougars’ suspect run defense could be torn up by the Cowboys’ Ollie Gordon.
