ESPN Analyst Ranks College Football Teams by Returning Production for 2024
In an era that sees college football programs overhaul their rosters annually like never before, continuity is rare and incredibly valuable.
ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly ranks every FBS program by returning production each offseason. Last year, Michigan (No. 5), Texas (No. 19) and Washington (No. 22) were among the nation’s leaders, with at least 73% of its statistical production from ’22 returning. Florida State, which went undefeated in the regular season and won the ACC championship before its controversial College Football Playoff snub, was No. 1. Alabama was an outlier, down at No. 125 with just 40% returning production, further proving what an impressive coaching job Nick Saban did in his final year.
Teams can thrive despite serious roster turnover, but programs that bring back experienced players have a serious leg up.
Quinn Ewers and Texas are in a strong position to excel in 2024 while bringing back the core of their ’23 College Football Playoff roster.
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This year, Virginia Tech could be in line for a real leap forward. The Hokies return 86% of their production from a year ago, with 95% on offense—the top mark on that side of the ball in the country. Northwestern (76% overall) is No. 1 on defense, with 88% of production returning. The Wildcats are No. 6 overall.
On the other side, Air Force, which peaked at No. 19 in the AP Top 25 and went 9–4 in 2023, is set for some serious regression. The Falcons are No. 134 overall, with just 25% returning production, and they rank at the bottom of the rankings on defense.
National runner-up Washington, which lost coach Kalen DeBoer to Alabama, is at the bottom on offense (19%), with a slew of stars heading to the NFL. The Huskies are No. 130 overall, just two spots below national champion Michigan. The Wolverines find themselves in a similar spot, with Jim Harbaugh returning to the NFL and a number of key players turning pro, including quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
Alabama, the third College Football Playoff team with a new coach for ’24, is once again starting anew, and ranks No. 115.
Texas, meanwhile, retained coach Steve Sarkisian and will bring back a good chunk of its ’23 team as it moves from the Big 12 to the SEC. Quarterback Quinn Ewers headlines the list of returning players, as Texas ranks No. 25 in returning production, tops among last year’s CFP squads by a wide margin.
